MFP predicts your weight in 5 weeks - question
Wtn_Gurl
Posts: 396 Member
So when you log your food in all day, at 2 pound weight loss for example where today I am 313, it tells me at the end of the log-in day, "if you continue to eat like this, you will be at 303 in 5 weeks.
Now, I have a theory, if I hit the 5 week mark, and do not hit the MFP weight prediction, could it be that I did not log properly, or could it mean it doesn't calculate other unique things your body does (like water weight fluctuations, etc).
If that is the case and I don't hit the MFP prediction, I might need to tighten up my logging and that is why I did not reach the MFP prediction?
Now, I have a theory, if I hit the 5 week mark, and do not hit the MFP weight prediction, could it be that I did not log properly, or could it mean it doesn't calculate other unique things your body does (like water weight fluctuations, etc).
If that is the case and I don't hit the MFP prediction, I might need to tighten up my logging and that is why I did not reach the MFP prediction?
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Replies
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Most people ignore that prediction for some of the reasons you described such as water weight, food in the digestive tract, etc. it also assumes your days will be exactly the same, meaning the same foods and same amounts.
Needless to say, you're better off setting your own goals and use it only as a loose guideline.3 -
It's a rather useless little 'fun' feature that bases your 5 week weight projection on what you did in that one single day. Meaning, you'd have to have an additional 34 days in a row where everything was identical to today for it to be even remotely accurate.
Ain't gonna happen.
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So when you log your food in all day, at 2 pound weight loss for example where today I am 313, it tells me at the end of the log-in day, "if you continue to eat like this, you will be at 303 in 5 weeks.
Now, I have a theory, if I hit the 5 week mark, and do not hit the MFP weight prediction, could it be that I did not log properly, or could it mean it doesn't calculate other unique things your body does (like water weight fluctuations, etc).
If that is the case and I don't hit the MFP prediction, I might need to tighten up my logging and that is why I did not reach the MFP prediction?
It's a pretty useless feature...it's about as basic of a formula as you can possibly get...it also assumes every day will be exactly the same calories in and same calories out which is pretty well impossible...and of course it wouldn't take into account any kind of water or waste fluctuations.0 -
I agree with the other comments, its a very loose guide at best. There are so many factors that affect if and how your body decides to release fat for energy and a simple equation (One size fits all) approach just does not work. Kind of funny to read them though.
You are the only one that can say for sure if your on track, the scale is only a tool. If I don't get the movement I expecting (yet exercise and calories are on par) its time to drop say 100 cals out of your diet. Your body is tricky as it adjusts to its environment about every 30 days (give or take).1 -
I always just thought of it as encouragement like a MFP virtual high five kinda thing. It would be awesome it if was an accurate prediction but I'd assume one would have to have exactly the same diet and exercise regime every single day but heck I found it encouraging that I might see progress if I keep working hard8
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It's not accurate at all... It bases that Only on how you ate that particular day. So it assumes you eat the exact same every day and burn the same number of calories every day, which you don't. It's just a little encouragement is all. Like hey if you do this every day you could weigh this much in 5 weeks.2
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One day at a time, builds goods habits. even if it's not accurate, it's a way to stay mindful each step of the way.
I actually like the feature, and it worked out pretty close !
Mind you, I was absolutely religious on logging, ate the same thing most days, very little sodium (hence little water retention). And menopausal, so I didn't monthly water retention flectuation.
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So when you log your food in all day, at 2 pound weight loss for example where today I am 313, it tells me at the end of the log-in day, "if you continue to eat like this, you will be at 303 in 5 weeks.
Now, I have a theory, if I hit the 5 week mark, and do not hit the MFP weight prediction, could it be that I did not log properly, or could it mean it doesn't calculate other unique things your body does (like water weight fluctuations, etc).
If that is the case and I don't hit the MFP prediction, I might need to tighten up my logging and that is why I did not reach the MFP prediction?
The 5 week projection assumes a few things:
a) that your food logging is perfect. Such as if you logged 1546 calories, then it assumes you ate precisely 1546 and will do so every day for the next 35 days.
b) that your calorie burn estimates are spot on. MFP uses some established scientific formula, base on your stats and stated activity level, to estimate what you will burn in a day. Well, really, its based on an 'average' person of your stats. Since in reality the exact rate of calorie burning can vary person to person. And you may either log exercise or be connected to an activity tracker. Whatever the situation, the 5 weeks projection assumes your calorie burn is exactly as assumed and will be the same for the next 35 days.
c) it does not assume natural fluctuation due to water weight, amount of food/drink in your system or such.
So in reality, the 5 week prediction is fine for a guideline, if you assume the law of averages AND your logging as well as calorie burn are relatively accurate. You have a decent amount of control over the food logging accuracy. But no way, other than trial and error, to figure out if your calorie burning is on target with what is assumed.1 -
If you want a somewhat more accurate prediction, consider a weight-trending app, such as Happy Scale (Apple), Libra (Android), or Trendweight.
These aren't a perfect crystal ball, either, but the use statistical techniques to look at recent weight history (more than one day ), and estimate what will happen if you stay on the same general trend over time. In effect, they smooth out some of the random daily weight fluctuations so you can better see the overall trend. 0 -
Those notes are like the fortune cookie at the end of my day. A little inspirational note to end the day on
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In a particularly high calorie day, it once told me I would gain 15 lbs. I didn't. Not have I ever lost what I predicted either. It's a bit of incentive, but not an accurate tool.0
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According to MFP, I'd be at my 135 lb initial goal by July 5th. Nope. I'm at 142lbs now. So it's definitely a range unless you eat and exercise exactly the same way everyday.0
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AH thank you everyone, i was believing it .. now i see its just a little smiley face as a possibiity.2
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That prediction depresses me. If it were true i would have hit my goal and waaaayyy overtaken it months ago!2
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Haha. I actually was putting this to the test, took note of the weight it said I would be by the first Friday of Aug and I shall see.0
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I also have the problem that the number of calories MFP says I need to maintain my weight is lower than the actual amount. (It says I need 1460, but at 1600 I am still losing.) I changed my calorie goal to be closer to the amount of calories I actually need to maintain. However, if I eat at that number, meeting my goal for the day, MFP has me gaining weight. I ignore the prediction.0
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I stopped listening to it. As of this morning im 187, saturday I did a super long hike and mfp told me in 5 weeks id be 167 which is not the case because every day is not the same for me.0
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laurenebargar wrote: »I stopped listening to it. As of this morning im 187, saturday I did a super long hike and mfp told me in 5 weeks id be 167 which is not the case because every day is not the same for me.
I had a gooden the other day. In 5 weeks i would be 10lbs less than today, I'm 2lb away from goal weight!
Yes, it was a lower than average day, but i think it would be physically and humanly impossible for me to lose 10lbs in 5 weeks.
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It's a pity the software doesn't remember what its predictions were. If I go back 5 weeks to check how close the prediction was, it gives the prediction based on my weight now, rather than then. It could be worked out though, if you were so inclined.1
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Looks like MFP punk us lol 2
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paulwatts747 wrote: »It's a pity the software doesn't remember what its predictions were. If I go back 5 weeks to check how close the prediction was, it gives the prediction based on my weight now, rather than then. It could be worked out though, if you were so inclined.
I actually think it does save it, but only on the regular computer version. I don't have a PC at home to check, but I recall seeing it as part of an old diary entry a while back and being surprised
ETA - look at the very bottom0
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