An analysis of my MFP Progress after 100 days

Anyone else ever do this? How did yours turn out?

I haven't been completely happy with my progress on MFP. I've been on here since 4/18/11 and so far I'm down *only* 11.2 lbs. Now, I'm not going to defend myself by suggesting I always did what I was supposed to..I went over my calorie goal sometimes, didn't log a few weekends or the week I was on a business trip, and I don't exercise nearly as much as I should. Am I justified in thinking I should be doing better? Or, am I being too lax in thinking I went off track "just a few times"?

It appears, that considering my indiscretions, I'm almost exactly where I should be!

I tracked everything on a spreadsheet. Since I weigh almost every day and track it on MFP I can enter my weight on a consistent basis. I also entered my calories from food and exercise and compared them against my calorie goal. Here are the facts:

Time frame= 4/18/2011 to 7/27/2011 (100 days = 14.3 weeks)
Calorie goal= 1500 (for a 1 lb week loss target)
Actual Loss = 11.2 lbs
Days Calories Logged= 81 (19% not logged)
Total deficit planned for days logged = 40,500 (500 calories per day deficit * 81 days)
Actual Net Calories Consumed= 122,341
Actual Calorie Deficit = 39,659 (122341 - (1500 * 81)
Expected weight loss= 11.33 lbs (=39,659 actual calorie deficit /3500 calories per lb)
Difference between Expected Weight Loss and Actual Loss = 0.13 lbs

So I'm only a bit over a tenth of a lb off from what I should have lost given my behavior! So it looks like MFP is right on!

I was more amazed by what I thought was my few "indiscretions" but was actually more than I thought:
19 days without logging
33 of the days I did log, I was over my 1500 calorie goal
So almost 50% of the time I either didn't log or went over my calorie goal. I had no idea it was anywhere near that high!
# of days with exercise: 30- also not very good, seriously need to work on this!

Conclusion:
I'm a number geek, so all of this really motivates me. All of this time, I've been wondering if my calorie goal was incorrectly set or if what I was logging was actually true (are the calories count correct? Am I counting the right number of calories when I exercise?). The math shows if I work the program, it really does work! I just have to do better with sticking to it. I'd like to figure out how each day's calorie counts affect my weight measurements over the next few days but the numbers are just a little too wacky to find an obvious pattern right now!