Who likes data? I know I do! (CICO Works)
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adarbyem
Posts: 83 Member
I would like to start this off by saying I am a huge fan of data, the more data the better. So when I joined MFP a couple months ago I was super excited to learn about the reports feature. So, in my past 74 days I have lost 22 lbs, had ups and downs, scales acting funny, and pretty much everything everybody experiences on this journey. Today, I decided to download my data for the past 71 days (Joined MFP but didn't really start logging until a few days in) and crunch some numbers. So, I fired up my trusty copy of MS Excel and here is what I came up with:
Timeline:
Days: 71
My Targets:
TDEE: 3200
Deficit: 1000
My Biometrics:
Starting Weight: 289
Current Weight: 267
Starting BF%: 40
Current BF%: 32
I used the tape method to measure my BF%, while the actual percentages may be off, I believe the loss of body fat to be accurate based on this method.
My CICO:
Calories IN: 168569.6
Exercise Calories Out: 29961
Target Net Calories: 156200
Actual Net Calories: 138608.6
TDEE Adjustment: 88.738%
The TDEE adjustment is there because, while I had a target to aim for, I didn't always reach my target many days, so an adjustment was needed to my TDEE see how accurate CICO was for me.
My Losses:
Target Fat Loss: 20.28571429
Actual Fat Loss: 23.12
Adjusted Target: 22.86025955
Adjusted target is based on if my target net calories matched my actual net calories. The fat loss is based on my BF% loss multiplied by my starting weight.
Ranges for Error Correction (+/- 10%):
Target Ranges:
Target Fat Loss -10%: 22.78064571
Target Fat Loss +10%: 27.84301143
Actual Ranges:
Actual Fat Loss -10%: 20.808
Actual Fat Loss +10%: 25.432
Target ranges are the fat loss ranges for the ADJUSTED TDEE
TDEE / CICO Accuracy Summary:
Target Net Calories: 156200
Actual Net Calories: 138608.6
Target Adjustment: 88.738%
Target Fat Loss: 20.28571429
Actual Fat Loss: 23.12
Adjusted Target: 22.86025955
Final TDEE Accuracy:
Accuracy of Adjusted Target: 98.88%
Adjust TDEE Up By: 1.12%
I am not actually going to do this for such a change this small, this is merely on my spreadsheet in the event my TDEE decreases as my weight goes down more.
TDEE Final Numbers:
Current TDEE: 3200
Estimated Actual TDEE: 3235.950236
In conclusion, I know that is is just some data from one person, but I think it's pretty clear based on my stats that CICO is working for me and should stand to reason it works for everyone else. Data is fun to look at and is a real eye opener when you hit a few days of apparent lack of progress. Trust the system, it works.
Attached is a screenshot of my spreadsheet numbers, the formatting is nothing fancy, but it's something. I hope you all enjoy this as much as I did, it will be interesting to revisit this process in another couple of months.
Timeline:
Days: 71
My Targets:
TDEE: 3200
Deficit: 1000
My Biometrics:
Starting Weight: 289
Current Weight: 267
Starting BF%: 40
Current BF%: 32
I used the tape method to measure my BF%, while the actual percentages may be off, I believe the loss of body fat to be accurate based on this method.
My CICO:
Calories IN: 168569.6
Exercise Calories Out: 29961
Target Net Calories: 156200
Actual Net Calories: 138608.6
TDEE Adjustment: 88.738%
The TDEE adjustment is there because, while I had a target to aim for, I didn't always reach my target many days, so an adjustment was needed to my TDEE see how accurate CICO was for me.
My Losses:
Target Fat Loss: 20.28571429
Actual Fat Loss: 23.12
Adjusted Target: 22.86025955
Adjusted target is based on if my target net calories matched my actual net calories. The fat loss is based on my BF% loss multiplied by my starting weight.
Ranges for Error Correction (+/- 10%):
Target Ranges:
Target Fat Loss -10%: 22.78064571
Target Fat Loss +10%: 27.84301143
Actual Ranges:
Actual Fat Loss -10%: 20.808
Actual Fat Loss +10%: 25.432
Target ranges are the fat loss ranges for the ADJUSTED TDEE
TDEE / CICO Accuracy Summary:
Target Net Calories: 156200
Actual Net Calories: 138608.6
Target Adjustment: 88.738%
Target Fat Loss: 20.28571429
Actual Fat Loss: 23.12
Adjusted Target: 22.86025955
Final TDEE Accuracy:
Accuracy of Adjusted Target: 98.88%
Adjust TDEE Up By: 1.12%
I am not actually going to do this for such a change this small, this is merely on my spreadsheet in the event my TDEE decreases as my weight goes down more.
TDEE Final Numbers:
Current TDEE: 3200
Estimated Actual TDEE: 3235.950236
In conclusion, I know that is is just some data from one person, but I think it's pretty clear based on my stats that CICO is working for me and should stand to reason it works for everyone else. Data is fun to look at and is a real eye opener when you hit a few days of apparent lack of progress. Trust the system, it works.
Attached is a screenshot of my spreadsheet numbers, the formatting is nothing fancy, but it's something. I hope you all enjoy this as much as I did, it will be interesting to revisit this process in another couple of months.
15
Replies
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Fellow data admirer checking in ... good analysis and I agree the human body is just another "machine" at the end of the day burning fuel to perform it's called upon functions, with an amazing ability to store fuel in reserve (aka fat) as a method of self preservation developed over years of evolution when acquisition of fuel inputs were not constant.
One word of caution though as someone who has been working with MFP for awhile (and have seen several posts to this same effect) the MFP provided exercise values have a tendency to be inflated (which then affect your Exercise Calories Out in the CO portion of the CICO equation)
Maybe you are already aware of this and have already adjusted, but the general rule of thumb (and the same method I have adopted as well) is to only enter half of your actual exercise.
My primary example is stationary bike exercise ... while I love the idea that I could burn 800 calories in 60minutes at moderate pace it's just not realistic. So I ride the 60minutes and only "credit" myself with 30minutes so my CO is adjusted by 390calories.
1 -
Fellow data admirer checking in ... good analysis and I agree the human body is just another "machine" at the end of the day burning fuel to perform it's called upon functions, with an amazing ability to store fuel in reserve (aka fat) as a method of self preservation developed over years of evolution when acquisition of fuel inputs were not constant.
One word of caution though as someone who has been working with MFP for awhile (and have seen several posts to this same effect) the MFP provided exercise values have a tendency to be inflated (which then affect your Exercise Calories Out in the CO portion of the CICO equation)
Maybe you are already aware of this and have already adjusted, but the general rule of thumb (and the same method I have adopted as well) is to only enter half of your actual exercise.
My primary example is stationary bike exercise ... while I love the idea that I could burn 800 calories in 60minutes at moderate pace it's just not realistic. So I ride the 60minutes and only "credit" myself with 30minutes so my CO is adjusted by 390calories.
I have noticed that about the exercise. I usually just tone down the intensity listed on MFP to account for about 60% of what my heart rate monitor is telling me. Seems to be a good rule of thumb so far.0 -
Wow such detail, I admire your comprehension, I understand the concept of CICO and believe it, but your break down is amazing am impressed
0
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