Accuracy of MFP 5-week weight projection

Just curious to know how accurate MFP’s 5-week weight projection is when you complete your diary entry for the day? I guess I’m more-so questioning the accuracy of how many calories MFP calculates your maintence (to then derive how many calories you would need to lose x amount of weight per week). If I am within my goals every day for 5 weeks, will the scale be around the same (or exact) number MFP is projecting? Has anyone experienced MFP being extremely accurate in that way, or has MFP been way off and you’ve had to re-evaluate and adjust your daily target calories against what MFP suggests? How did you go about figuring out the formula that works for you? Hope this made sense. It’s really motivating when MFP projects how much you’ll weigh in 5 weeks if you remain on target, but I also don’t want to have an unrealistic expectation. Thanks for the insight :)


  • NovusDies
    NovusDies Posts: 8,940 Member
    The MFP projection is pretty much crap. It assumes that each day will be exactly like the day you just closed. I am sure it is accidentally right on occasion.

  • kimny72
    kimny72 Posts: 16,013 Member
    edited May 2019
    Yeah, the 5 week pop up is a gimmick. A very simple formula that seems to suffer a glitch from time to time. If you find it motivating that's great, but don't get too invested in the number.

    Weight loss isn't linear, even if you do everything perfectly, there is no way to predict how much you'll weigh at a specific point in time .

    I found MFPs calorie goal fairly on point, but any formula is just giving you a starting point. Many people will have to tweak things a little as they go after laying down a few weeks of data and results. Accurate and consistent logging can make these tweaks much easier :smile:
  • abowersgirl
    abowersgirl Posts: 3,409 Member
    I weigh myself daily and noticed that if my five week weight dropped from the night before then I am more likely to loose weight when I weigh myself the next day and the same goes for if it's a higher number than the previous day....but other than that no. It's usually off by a good 10 pounds
  • keenest37
    keenest37 Posts: 61 Member
    I don't pay it much mind.
  • sijomial
    sijomial Posts: 19,811 Member
    The prediction for me was hilarious as I did 5:2 fasting to lose my excess weight.
    So on the two very low days twice a week my prediction would be that I would waste away and on the five maintenance days the prediction was I wouldn't lose any weight at all.

    "I guess I’m more-so questioning the accuracy of how many calories MFP calculates your maintenance " - probably more accurate than most people's food and exercise logging. There will be some outliers of course but I would hazard a guess that the majority of issues are more people than tool related.

    My actual weight loss results over weeks showed I was about 200cals/day off on average but I deliberately chose to be a fairly relaxed but consistent food logger and believed my HRM when it exagerated a fair amount.

    I simply adjusted my daily goal and results then followed expectations.
  • neugebauer52
    neugebauer52 Posts: 1,120 Member
    That weight projection is the only info on MFP I neither like nor need. It doesn't even explain how it comes to that conclusion mathematically... An arrow according to the individual's goal (up or down or side ways) might be more encouraging.
  • spiriteagle99
    spiriteagle99 Posts: 3,680 Member
    Aside from the whole issue of not eating exactly the same every day, which really skews the result, MFPs recommended calories number is too low for me. I'm in maintenance, and it took a while to figure out my actual needs. I reset my calorie goal 200 higher and often eat more than that, but have mostly kept within my 5 lb. window for several years. When I eat at or slightly below goal, the projection always shows me gaining. I ignore it.
  • Katmary71
    Katmary71 Posts: 6,629 Member
    Mine is definitely wrong. MFP really over-eastimates my workouts and it comes out about 12 pounds down in 5 weeks. It'd be nice to weigh that weight, but I'm definitely losing slower than that.
  • eb8566
    eb8566 Posts: 249 Member
    It is always really close for me but I follow a rountine so my diet from day to day is about the same.
  • TheRealSlim_Shelly
    TheRealSlim_Shelly Posts: 66 Member
    Thanks everyone! I’ve been eating around the same calories (I weigh my food religiously) and burning the same daily in the treadmill so the weight projected by MFP has been around the same number each day. I’m a long time MFP user (weight loss back in the day and then years of maintenance) and I never paid too much attention to the prediction when I was originally using it to lose weight years ago. I’m looking forward to (God-willing🙏🏼) being pregnant again in the somewhat near future and really want to get the last 20lbs of baby weight off (the sooner the better). The number predicted by MFP just sounded a little too good to be true. Just curious if it was ever actually accurate for anyone.
  • koalathebear
    koalathebear Posts: 236 Member
    I don't think it can be very accurate but I do find it useful to look at it because it tells me that if I keep eating the same way I ate that day, at that current weight - where I might end up being. So it's a quick reminder / wake up call about whether I had a piggy day that day or a relatively restrained day :) It's ok for me to have the occasional piggy day but not too many of them and not in a row!