When do you believe your weight trend is accurate?

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kiela64
kiela64 Posts: 1,447 Member
in Health and Weight Loss
The purpose of daily weigh ins is to get a more accurate trend, but when do you consider it accurate (eg free of the bias of waste and water retention)?

I’ve been weighing in almost every day for about 2 and a half weeks, and my happy scale app is telling me I’m losing at a rate of 2.7lb/week...but I feel like that could just be water and constipation and I might not have lost anything yet!

However July 12 I weighed in at 178lbs and today was 170.8lbs - could this be mostly poop/water or am I actually losing too fast? I am still obese for my height btw. I am aiming for 1-0.5lb/week rate of loss.

Replies

  • apullum
    apullum Posts: 4,838 Member
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    It's common for people to lose a large amount of water weight quickly when they first start a calorie deficit. I would not worry about losing too fast unless you continue at this pace much beyond the first few weeks.
  • L1zardQueen
    L1zardQueen Posts: 8,754 Member
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    Keep going. Two and a half weeks is the sweet spot.
  • NovusDies
    NovusDies Posts: 8,940 Member
    edited July 2019
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    I would make a note of your weight today and then see what it looks like in a month or so. I have a sneaky suspicion you will not feel like you are losing too fast in another week. I would bet if you are eating enough calories you will likely go through a frustrating period of showing no losses. Water weight has a habit of coming and going.
  • Danp
    Danp Posts: 1,561 Member
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    I have my smoothing set to 4 weeks.

    For me I tend to put stock in progress on a month to month basis as this allows for me to 'ride out' not just normal water/waste fluctuations but also for other things like special occasions, holidays, and what I like to call 'mental health cake days' which are days where enjoying the cake and being happy is worth the calorie hit.
  • pinuplove
    pinuplove Posts: 12,874 Member
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    At least a month/full menstrual cycle.
  • lgfrie
    lgfrie Posts: 1,449 Member
    edited July 2019
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    If I had a bacon cheeseburger for every person (myself included) who thought at the 3 week point that the weight loss was going so incredibly fast that it seemed improbable and even dangerous, only to conclude by week 5 that this was gonna be a long, tedious, slow slog that was going much slower than anticipated, I'd have an extra hundred pounds to lose.

    Enjoy the honeymoon while it lasts. The honeymoon being that initial 3-ish week period of a diet where a little fat loss gets conflated on the scale with a lot of water dumping to make weight loss look easy and rapid. At three weeks, you are literally on the plane ride home from your diet honeymoon. Very soon, your diet life will be akin to arguing with your new spouse about who left the cap off the toothpaste, causing goop to accumulate all over the bathroom sink.

    Weight loss will never seem this easy again. And yes, a lot of it was water.

    If you really want to know how many pounds per week of fat you lose, here's how to do it.

    1. Wait until at least week 5, but preferably week 6. Then for 2-3 consecutive days, eat a very measured out and standard amount of sodium and carbs (because both cause water retention, so your consumption of them must be exact). Then weigh yourself at a specific time, such as 10 a.m.

    2. Then let at least 4 weeks go by, but preferably 6 or 8. The longer the better, because it will reduce any water-caused errors.* When you're about ready for your comparison measurement, eat the SAME levels of sodium and carbs as you did in Step 1, for 2-3 consecutive days. Then weigh yourself at the same time of day.

    3. Divide the total amount of weight lost by the number of days. That is your average fat loss per day. Multiply it by 7 for an average fat loss per week.

    * Here is why you want a long timeline. Let's say you're retaining an extra pound of water for whatever reason. If you've lost 5 pounds total, that water retention constitutes 20 % of your total weight loss - a huge error. But let's say you lose 20 pounds over a couple/few months. The same pound of water now represents only a 5 % error. Now let's say you lose 100 pounds over a year or two. The same water weight is down to a 1 % error. So, the longer you let the timeline run, the better the quality of your data.
  • hixa30
    hixa30 Posts: 274 Member
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    In my experience - the minimum period to get a trend from is about 15 days but I use a month. However, I try to avoid using trends and calculating 'goal day' because 99% of the time it's later than that.
  • PAV8888
    PAV8888 Posts: 13,730 Member
    edited July 2019
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    Minimum trend time: no menstrual cycle 3-4 weeks. Otherwise 4 to 6 to include at least one complete cycle.
  • kiela64
    kiela64 Posts: 1,447 Member
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    apullum wrote: »
    It's common for people to lose a large amount of water weight quickly when they first start a calorie deficit. I would not worry about losing too fast unless you continue at this pace much beyond the first few weeks.

    Thanks! I know over 2lb/week is a bad thing re: muscle loss and nutrition. But it’s a new deficit so that makes sense. Thank you!!
  • kiela64
    kiela64 Posts: 1,447 Member
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    Danp wrote: »
    I have my smoothing set to 4 weeks.

    For me I tend to put stock in progress on a month to month basis as this allows for me to 'ride out' not just normal water/waste fluctuations but also for other things like special occasions, holidays, and what I like to call 'mental health cake days' which are days where enjoying the cake and being happy is worth the calorie hit.

    Haha sounds good! I’ll see what it’s like after 4/5 weeks then, thank you!
  • kiela64
    kiela64 Posts: 1,447 Member
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    pinuplove wrote: »
    At least a month/full menstrual cycle.

    Oh that makes sense thank you!!
  • kiela64
    kiela64 Posts: 1,447 Member
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    lgfrie wrote: »
    If I had a bacon cheeseburger for every person (myself included) who thought at the 3 week point that the weight loss was going so incredibly fast that it seemed improbable and even dangerous, only to conclude by week 5 that this was gonna be a long, tedious, slow slog that was going much slower than anticipated, I'd have an extra hundred pounds to lose.

    Enjoy the honeymoon while it lasts. The honeymoon being that initial 3-ish week period of a diet where a little fat loss gets conflated on the scale with a lot of water dumping to make weight loss look easy and rapid. At three weeks, you are literally on the plane ride home from your diet honeymoon. Very soon, your diet life will be akin to arguing with your new spouse about who left the cap off the toothpaste, causing goop to accumulate all over the bathroom sink.

    Weight loss will never seem this easy again. And yes, a lot of it was water.

    If you really want to know how many pounds per week of fat you lose, here's how to do it.

    1. Wait until at least week 5, but preferably week 6. Then for 2-3 consecutive days, eat a very measured out and standard amount of sodium and carbs (because both cause water retention, so your consumption of them must be exact). Then weigh yourself at a specific time, such as 10 a.m.

    2. Then let at least 4 weeks go by, but preferably 6 or 8. The longer the better, because it will reduce any water-caused errors.* When you're about ready for your comparison measurement, eat the SAME levels of sodium and carbs as you did in Step 1, for 2-3 consecutive days. Then weigh yourself at the same time of day.

    3. Divide the total amount of weight lost by the number of days. That is your average fat loss per day. Multiply it by 7 for an average fat loss per week.

    * Here is why you want a long timeline. Let's say you're retaining an extra pound of water for whatever reason. If you've lost 5 pounds total, that water retention constitutes 20 % of your total weight loss - a huge error. But let's say you lose 20 pounds over a couple/few months. The same pound of water now represents only a 5 % error. Now let's say you lose 100 pounds over a year or two. The same water weight is down to a 1 % error. So, the longer you let the timeline run, the better the quality of your data.

    Haha thanks I’m glad this is common! It’s not my first time losing weight but it’s the first time I had a scale at the beginning. I’ll assume the “fast” loss has been water/waste and maayyybe my 0.5lb/week goal 😁

    I guarantee I won’t hack my carbs that consistently or wait until 10am to drink water & eat food so I won’t get that accurate, but maybe the 6-10 week range I’ll consider it accurate-ish 🙂

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