Question for MFP Vets

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davidrip1
davidrip1 Posts: 70 Member
in Health and Weight Loss
If you follow MFP directions explicitly, logging precisely, over a controlled time period, how accurate are the provided weight loss predictions. It would be nice to hear some anecdotal testimony.

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  • springlering62
    springlering62 Posts: 7,463 Member
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    LOL. If the “In 5 Weeks You Would Weigh” thing were accurate at all, I’d be like a human black hole of negative number by now.

    It’s about as accurate as that fairground mannequin that spits out your fortune.

    OTOH, however, MFP has been a godsend for me. I am 84 pounds down regardless of the wonky predictions, and all it took as equal parts mindfulness, self control, time, patience, and exercise.

    There is no perfect predictor for imperfect people. Some days you’re gonna screw it up, some days there was a hidden salt, PMS, stress, or other factors that are unpredictable.
  • spiriteagle99
    spiriteagle99 Posts: 3,675 Member
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    In my case, MFP's calories were a bit low. I lost weight faster than expected and when I began maintenance, I continued to lose weight until I adjusted my goal. OTOH, I don't weigh my food, so I may be overestimating what I am eating rather than underestimating as most do. Or I'm just more active than I think so burn more calories than most women my age.
  • RelCanonical
    RelCanonical Posts: 3,882 Member
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    I haven’t checked mine in forever, but I’d say in general, no. There’s a few factors at play. Water weight being a big one. Another being your activity level may not perfectly sync with MFP, which would affect your TDEE and may result in faster or slower loss. That’s with the multitude of little things that affect scale weight. I just make sure the trendline is down, and everything else can lie where it may.
  • cheryldumais
    cheryldumais Posts: 1,907 Member
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    I find it's a bit off (I don't lose quite as much) but I know that now. If I never had a taste of anything while cooking or skipped weighing my food occasionally I would guess it would come closer. Truthfully not too many people eat exactly the same number of calories every day for 5 weeks and move in exactly the same way. If you stick to it though you will lose weight which is the ultimate goal anyway right?
  • cmriverside
    cmriverside Posts: 33,962 Member
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    I agree with AnnPT above.

    The estimates of a calorie goal that MFP gave me are off by about 500 calories per day. That's about 25% for me.

    I figured that out by careful logging over a period of several months and I've been maintaining my 80 pound loss for over 11 years now.
  • NovusDies
    NovusDies Posts: 8,940 Member
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    The calorie goal MFP gave me originally was a little too high. 2 years later with significant weight loss and habit changes it is now a little too low.

    The process works if you can find an easy way for yourself to stick with it. If you are just starting out you won't know everything you need to know right now possibly including a more accurate calorie estimate. The estimate you are given by MFP is a good starting place and will likely produce some results for you if you log accurately.
  • cwolfman13
    cwolfman13 Posts: 41,874 Member
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    If you're talking about the "if everyday was like today" thing, not very accurate...too many variables for such a simple algorithm. That said, I selected to lose 1 Lb per week, and as an average over time, that's about what it was.
  • fiddletime
    fiddletime Posts: 1,862 Member
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    I’ve found it to be pretty accurate. I’m older and 5’2” and don’t have a lot to lose. If I’m off it’s usually because of my guestimate on exercise calories.
  • kshama2001
    kshama2001 Posts: 27,902 Member
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    When I weigh my food on a digital food scale, eat the calories MFP gives me, eat most (but not all) of my exercise calories, I lose as expected over the course of a month.
  • lgfrie
    lgfrie Posts: 1,449 Member
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    I have found the MFP goals tool to be *extremely*, as in unbelievably, accurate. During my first 5 months of dieting, I had my goal set to 2 lbs per week, ate precisely the calories it told me to eat, and lost 2.03 lbs per week, meaning it was accurate within a 2 % tolerance. Over the next 5 months my goal has shifted from 2 to 1.5 to 1 lbs/week and my actual consumption became a bit more erratic and less dead-on to the calorie target, with some poorly logged binge days that really threw off my spreadsheet, so it's harder to tell whether MFP has continued to be as accurate as it was earlier, but in general, I think it has been. I completely trust the MFP goals tool.
  • yirara
    yirara Posts: 9,398 Member
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    Human bodies are not machines, and everyone's body works a tiny bit differently. These numbers are averages that work for the majority of the population, most people being roughly around that point.

    But there's also the story of water weight or poop to take into account. If your weight day comes 5 weeks after you made a note of that number and your body happens to store just a bit more water then, or you've not poop'ed for 2 days then the weight will be higher, though this of course is not bodyfat. More uncertainty as well with not logging precisely, etc...

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