accuracy of the weight loss estimate

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Replies

  • Alyssa_Is_LosingIt
    Alyssa_Is_LosingIt Posts: 4,696 Member
    edited June 2015
    bpetrosky wrote: »
    I have been on Implanon for a total of 4 years (had it replaced at the 3 year mark). When I initially got my first one inserted, I gained 10kg within a few months. The hormones increased my appetite so I ate more. I have slowly gained a little weight over the past 4 years but I just pass that off as not eating healthily. I have just started my weight loss journey and I'm hoping my Implanon does not effect my ability to lose weight.

    This really doesn't have anything to do with this thread. If you want to discuss this, start a new thread.

    I'm pretty sure she meant to post this in another thread.

    *Edited because she figured out how to edit :smile:
  • chunky_lover123
    chunky_lover123 Posts: 13 Member
    Machka9 wrote: »
    ... and its really hot so i sweated out A LOT

    Temperature ... and sweat ... make no difference.

    Im sorry but according to what ive read on the internet it says it does. Regardless i got the point of your comment. thank you for taking your time to help
  • Machka9
    Machka9 Posts: 21,125 Member
    Machka9 wrote: »
    1. The little statement that says, "if today is like everyday, you'll weight ____ in 5 weeks" is not necessarily accurate. It is only accurate if you eat that exact number of calories every single day. My calories vary so each day there's a new message. However, twice I noted what it said and put that number in my calendar 5 weeks in the future. Both times I hit that weight about 2 weeks before MFP said I would. :smiley:


    2. If you are not entering your food accurately, who knows how many calories you are actually consuming. You say ...
    I weigh 199 pounds and i left my mfp activity level on lightly active. i try to put my excercise lower than i actually did so it doesnt think i lost more calories than i actually did. Also i dont know exactly how much i ate of something i put it that i ate more. After completing the day it said in five weeks id weigh 170 lbs. i weighed 204 last week but i still want to makes sure this could happen. i will do my best to maintain my current calorie intake. I am 6`1 so im not really fat, but it seems like i can lose weight pretty easily. My calorie thing today was 1760 (goal) - 1657 (food)+1943 (excercise) = 2046 (remaining) . i feel like theres too much remaining. Today i did 3 hours of soccer in the 100 degree weather so i think i the excercise part is accurate. i documented everything i ate and it seems accurate but i feel like theres to many calories remaining. Is the calorie thing accurate?

    MFPs calorie counter is quite accurate, but you have to do your part. You have to enter exact amounts. This means picking up a <$20 scale at your local grocery store or department store and weighing everything.


    3. However, MFP's exercise calculator is not particularly accurate. It tends to overestimate calorie burned. So 3 hours of brisk walking (i.e a game of soccer) is probably more like 200 cal/hour or 600 calories all together. If you actually jogged for the full 3 hours, maybe double that.

    The 100 degree weather makes no difference.

    i sprinted probably for around 15 minutes total and ran for like an hour and a half total. For the rest i was jogging or walking around. And according to the internet high temperatures do increase calorie burn
    And i try to be as accurate as possible when writing down what i eat. When eating fruit i try eating in the amounts that are on the mfp app just so its easier. For example a cup of strawberries. When i eat actual home made food i put the amount that i put on my plate and when i eat something with a barcode i put it on the app like it is. When i put homemade food in the app i try putting a little more than i have just so im sure that all of the food im eating is on there. its better than putting less than i ate

    If you were walking for about an hour and a half, that's only about 300 cal for that time. If you were running for about an hour and a half, that might be 600 cal. Throw in 15 min of sprinting ... and you've got a grand total of about 1000 cal for the 3 hours out there.

    Always remember to estimate low when it comes to calories burned ... and only aim to eat about half those calories back.

  • chunky_lover123
    chunky_lover123 Posts: 13 Member
    Machka9 wrote: »
    Machka9 wrote: »
    1. The little statement that says, "if today is like everyday, you'll weight ____ in 5 weeks" is not necessarily accurate. It is only accurate if you eat that exact number of calories every single day. My calories vary so each day there's a new message. However, twice I noted what it said and put that number in my calendar 5 weeks in the future. Both times I hit that weight about 2 weeks before MFP said I would. :smiley:


    2. If you are not entering your food accurately, who knows how many calories you are actually consuming. You say ...
    I weigh 199 pounds and i left my mfp activity level on lightly active. i try to put my excercise lower than i actually did so it doesnt think i lost more calories than i actually did. Also i dont know exactly how much i ate of something i put it that i ate more. After completing the day it said in five weeks id weigh 170 lbs. i weighed 204 last week but i still want to makes sure this could happen. i will do my best to maintain my current calorie intake. I am 6`1 so im not really fat, but it seems like i can lose weight pretty easily. My calorie thing today was 1760 (goal) - 1657 (food)+1943 (excercise) = 2046 (remaining) . i feel like theres too much remaining. Today i did 3 hours of soccer in the 100 degree weather so i think i the excercise part is accurate. i documented everything i ate and it seems accurate but i feel like theres to many calories remaining. Is the calorie thing accurate?

    MFPs calorie counter is quite accurate, but you have to do your part. You have to enter exact amounts. This means picking up a <$20 scale at your local grocery store or department store and weighing everything.


    3. However, MFP's exercise calculator is not particularly accurate. It tends to overestimate calorie burned. So 3 hours of brisk walking (i.e a game of soccer) is probably more like 200 cal/hour or 600 calories all together. If you actually jogged for the full 3 hours, maybe double that.

    The 100 degree weather makes no difference.

    i sprinted probably for around 15 minutes total and ran for like an hour and a half total. For the rest i was jogging or walking around. And according to the internet high temperatures do increase calorie burn
    And i try to be as accurate as possible when writing down what i eat. When eating fruit i try eating in the amounts that are on the mfp app just so its easier. For example a cup of strawberries. When i eat actual home made food i put the amount that i put on my plate and when i eat something with a barcode i put it on the app like it is. When i put homemade food in the app i try putting a little more than i have just so im sure that all of the food im eating is on there. its better than putting less than i ate

    If you were walking for about an hour and a half, that's only about 300 cal for that time. If you were running for about an hour and a half, that might be 600 cal. Throw in 15 min of sprinting ... and you've got a grand total of about 1000 cal for the 3 hours out there.

    Always remember to estimate low when it comes to calories burned ... and only aim to eat about half those calories back.

    ok will do
  • atypicalsmith
    atypicalsmith Posts: 2,742 Member
    edited June 2015
    bpetrosky wrote: »
    I have been on Implanon for a total of 4 years (had it replaced at the 3 year mark). When I initially got my first one inserted, I gained 10kg within a few months. The hormones increased my appetite so I ate more. I have slowly gained a little weight over the past 4 years but I just pass that off as not eating healthily. I have just started my weight loss journey and I'm hoping my Implanon does not effect my ability to lose weight.

    This really doesn't have anything to do with this thread. If you want to discuss this, start a new thread.

    I don't see where this was posted on this thread.
  • bpetrosky
    bpetrosky Posts: 3,911 Member
    bpetrosky wrote: »
    I have been on Implanon for a total of 4 years (had it replaced at the 3 year mark). When I initially got my first one inserted, I gained 10kg within a few months. The hormones increased my appetite so I ate more. I have slowly gained a little weight over the past 4 years but I just pass that off as not eating healthily. I have just started my weight loss journey and I'm hoping my Implanon does not effect my ability to lose weight.

    This really doesn't have anything to do with this thread. If you want to discuss this, start a new thread.

    I don't see where this was post on this thread.

    She edited after the fact.
  • chunky_lover123
    chunky_lover123 Posts: 13 Member
    bpetrosky wrote: »
    bpetrosky wrote: »
    It's not accurate, it's just there as an encouragement.

    Exercise calories can be overstated as well, but you should be eating back a portion.

    do you mean i should eat more?

    Suppose your calorie goal is 1400. You log 500 cals of exercise in MFP, so it raises your calorie goal to 1900. You can eat about 1650 cals, (1400 + 250 = 1650). That way, if the exercise burn estimate is overestimated, you aren't eating into your deficit and slowing your weight loss.
    ok ill do that. People have been saying that the exercise calories burnt are greatly exaggerated so what do you recommend i to to fix that?
  • bpetrosky
    bpetrosky Posts: 3,911 Member
    bpetrosky wrote: »
    bpetrosky wrote: »
    It's not accurate, it's just there as an encouragement.

    Exercise calories can be overstated as well, but you should be eating back a portion.

    do you mean i should eat more?

    Suppose your calorie goal is 1400. You log 500 cals of exercise in MFP, so it raises your calorie goal to 1900. You can eat about 1650 cals, (1400 + 250 = 1650). That way, if the exercise burn estimate is overestimated, you aren't eating into your deficit and slowing your weight loss.
    ok ill do that. People have been saying that the exercise calories burnt are greatly exaggerated so what do you recommend i to to fix that?

    The only thing you can do is use a good fitness tracker, but even that is only an estimate. Even then, track your weight loss over time, and make adjustments as you go.
  • chunky_lover123
    chunky_lover123 Posts: 13 Member
    bpetrosky wrote: »
    bpetrosky wrote: »
    bpetrosky wrote: »
    It's not accurate, it's just there as an encouragement.

    Exercise calories can be overstated as well, but you should be eating back a portion.

    do you mean i should eat more?

    Suppose your calorie goal is 1400. You log 500 cals of exercise in MFP, so it raises your calorie goal to 1900. You can eat about 1650 cals, (1400 + 250 = 1650). That way, if the exercise burn estimate is overestimated, you aren't eating into your deficit and slowing your weight loss.
    ok ill do that. People have been saying that the exercise calories burnt are greatly exaggerated so what do you recommend i to to fix that?

    The only thing you can do is use a good fitness tracker, but even that is only an estimate. Even then, track your weight loss over time, and make adjustments as you go.

    ok i was planning on getting a fitbit. And ill weigh myself once like every two-three days to check. Thanks for your help, it looks like youre experienced with this sort of stuff. one more thing. I see youve lost 17 lbs, and congratulations for that. Do you think itd be possible to lose 14 lbs by august? im trying to gain muscle while losing weight, so im ok with not losing all that weight as long as the weight i gain is muscle. Ive read a lot into recomposition, and i know you need to get more calories to gain muscle, so on the days i weight lift ill eat more protein and food.
  • bpetrosky
    bpetrosky Posts: 3,911 Member
    bpetrosky wrote: »
    bpetrosky wrote: »
    bpetrosky wrote: »
    It's not accurate, it's just there as an encouragement.

    Exercise calories can be overstated as well, but you should be eating back a portion.

    do you mean i should eat more?

    Suppose your calorie goal is 1400. You log 500 cals of exercise in MFP, so it raises your calorie goal to 1900. You can eat about 1650 cals, (1400 + 250 = 1650). That way, if the exercise burn estimate is overestimated, you aren't eating into your deficit and slowing your weight loss.
    ok ill do that. People have been saying that the exercise calories burnt are greatly exaggerated so what do you recommend i to to fix that?

    The only thing you can do is use a good fitness tracker, but even that is only an estimate. Even then, track your weight loss over time, and make adjustments as you go.

    ok i was planning on getting a fitbit. And ill weigh myself once like every two-three days to check. Thanks for your help, it looks like youre experienced with this sort of stuff. one more thing. I see youve lost 17 lbs, and congratulations for that. Do you think itd be possible to lose 14 lbs by august? im trying to gain muscle while losing weight, so im ok with not losing all that weight as long as the weight i gain is muscle. Ive read a lot into recomposition, and i know you need to get more calories to gain muscle, so on the days i weight lift ill eat more protein and food.

    It's an aggressive goal, but possible. The faster you try to lose, however, the deeper your deficit is and that's not really compatible with recomp. Lifting and getting your protein macros in will help preserve the muscle mass you have, though, which will get you most of what you want.
  • PAV8888
    PAV8888 Posts: 10,714 Member
    edited June 2015
    Hello OP:

    You are slightly overweight; not obese. A target of 0.7% of bodyweight per week is probably safer than a higher one in terms of maximizing fat loss. So is staying in a positive nitrogen balance (i.e. in your case probably eating 150g+ of protein a day.) Lifting weights means a program of lifting progressively heavier weights.

    Eating ZERO means... eating nothing
    NOT-A-THING.
    Just water for you.

    If you ate ZERO everyday for the next 5 weeks, what do you think your state of health would be at the end of that time period?

    So, there are two choices here.

    We can assume that your soccer calories were over-stated (which you don't seem to believe), or that they were accurate!

    If they were accurate you ate LESS THAN ZERO.
    A negative balance.
    Less than nothing.

    What do you think your state of health will be in five weeks if you miraculously manage to continue to eat at a negative balance for five weeks?

    Anyway.

    There has always been a disagreement on MFP as to whether exercise calories are over-stated or not.

    I happen to believe that exercise calories are SOMETIMES over-stated; but less often than many people think.

    On the other hand I also happen to believe that believing that exercise calories are overstated allows people who have other problems with their food and exercise logging to not end up inadvertently over-eating.

    (in case you're wondering: yes, you HAVE problems with your logging. if you are not weighing everything and that includes things that are semi-solid or even liquid, and it includes not believing that a package has what a package purports to have, and if you are not hand-picking database entries, then yes, you have problems with your logging. As much as 20%--or more!)

    So, the usual prescription is simple:
    Eat back 100% of steady state exercise calories;
    75% of HIIT or circuit training calories;
    50% of weight or strength training calories for a few weeks.

    Compare your results to your expected progress and either eat less or more exercise calories to compensate based on your actual results.

    You can adjust these numbers as you see fit.

    The above advice is suitable for someone having a high burn and a high deficit because they are already ABOUT 1000 Cal below maintenance, so they can afford to be a bit off with their exercise calories.

    A sedentary person with a 0.5lb a week goal might prefer to start on a 50%, or even 25% initial exercise calorie eat back. Because any mistake will lead to a stall or weight gain.

    The MFP calories and eat back recommendations are just estimates.
    The point is that you adjust based on your real life logging and experience.

    I strongly suggest you use an application similar to weightgrapher.com or that you track down a trendline spreadsheet like this one from scooby's website: http://d16kc6rd0714uz.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/AccurateWeightCharting.xls to record your weight.

    Using these tools will help cut through the inevitable non-fat related weight changes that happen because of eating too much salt, depleting your glycogen and replenishing it, exercising in a hot environment, and who the crap knows what else. (the point is: *kitten* happens and it has nothing to do with fat loss. So look at the trend whenever your scale is acting weird).

    Last, but not least... why exactly are you bothering with MFP? If you log everything perfectly, you could still be off 5%, 10%, even more depending on the type of food you were logging and nutrient variation.

    If you don't even want to weight and record your food accurately, if you don't want to choose the right entries in the database, then you are not eating to a target. You are just eating approximately.

    I suppose that might make you more mindful of what you eat; but, don't kid yourself that you are actually eating whatever amount of calories you think you are.

    Last; but, not least, your exercise calories and how to cross check them. Your idea to break the soccer game into sprints and jogging is a great one in terms of double checking.

    So what you do is you go here: https://sites.google.com/site/compendiumofphysicalactivities/ and you look up the MET value for the type of soccer you played. And you also look up the MET values for the similar activities you could break your exercise time into.

    You then use a MET to Cal calculator such as this one: http://ergo.human.cornell.edu/MetsCaloriesCalculator/MetsCaloriesCalculator.htm

    And you compare the initial soccer value (which for you will indeed be very close to the 1800 Cal you were given) to the sum of the individualized activities. Which if you factor in the time when you just stand in the filed and the time you just walk in the field and the time you jog or sprint, you may find it to be a bit lower.

    Because you see the MET values have a problem: they assume you do the activity continuously at a pre-determined (set) intensity level.

    Oh: and another problem... you NET calories are not what you see; your NET calories are the MET value -1.

    And in fact, if you are NOT setup as sedentary in MFP, your net Cal value would require -1.xx MET because MFP is crediting you with >1MET per minute for being alive and not sedentary.

    And as to the 100 degree heat and perceived exertion: sorry: what matters is how much you move. Moving is what burns calories. Not how tired you get, or your perceived exertion level.

    Who do you think burned/burns more calories (in total over a pre-set time period): My 280lb self sweating up a hill, heart going at 150BPM, unable to breathe, walking at 2.5 mph, or my 190lb self walking up the same hill at 120BPM talking on his cell phone and walking at 3.5 mph?

    Yes, if my 280lb self could achieve what my 190lb self can, he WOULD have been burning more... but he COULDN'T!

    So who do you think would be more likely to run more and burn more calories: the guy running to keep warm in 50 degree weather, or the guy sweating bullets and about to faint in 100 degree sunshine?

    Long story short. You have no idea what you ate. You burned somewhere between 800 and 1800 calories. 2lbs a week is ambitious and will result in some muscle loss.

    Ditch the target dates.

    Keep on reading and learning.

    And best of luck in reaching your goals.

    And on the potential assumption that you may still be growing you may also want to check out sparkteens. Because diet and exercise advice DOES CHANGE based on one's age. What is suitable advice for a 50 year old is not necessarily suitable advice for a either a 17 or a 19 year old.

    Just as an example if you can, actually achieve a burn of 1500+ Calories in a few hours and do so sustainably on a daily basis, without risk of injury or overtraining, then restricting calories may be an inappropriate goal for you, and you may be able to achieve your goals via appropriate exercise.

    <-- I don't know that the above is true; my 19 year old self was a very long time ago: but it may be worth exploring, because caloric restriction has its own set of dangers. Among them reduced metabolic rate for a very long time, or even for the rest of your life. And rebound weight gain. just saying.
  • FitOldMomma
    FitOldMomma Posts: 790 Member
    I weigh 199 pounds and i left my mfp activity level on lightly active. i try to put my excercise lower than i actually did so it doesnt think i lost more calories than i actually did. Also i dont know exactly how much i ate of something i put it that i ate more. After completing the day it said in five weeks id weigh 170 lbs. i weighed 204 last week but i still want to makes sure this could happen. i will do my best to maintain my current calorie intake. I am 6`1 so im not really fat, but it seems like i can lose weight pretty easily. My calorie thing today was 1760 (goal) - 1657 (food)+1943 (excercise) = 2046 (remaining) . i feel like theres too much remaining. Today i did 3 hours of soccer in the 100 degree weather so i think i the excercise part is accurate. i documented everything i ate and it seems accurate but i feel like theres to many calories remaining. Is the calorie thing accurate?

    The only way that estimate would be accurate is if every day for the next 5 weeks you had the exact same numbers as you did today.
  • editorgrrl
    editorgrrl Posts: 7,063 Member
    Do you think itd be possible to lose 14 lbs by august? im trying to gain muscle while losing weight, so im ok with not losing all that weight as long as the weight i gain is muscle. Ive read a lot into recomposition, and i know you need to get more calories to gain muscle, so on the days i weight lift ill eat more protein and food.

    A healthy, sustainable loss is .5 lb. per week for every 25 lbs. you're overweight.

    Please, read the Sexypants post. So much good "how-to" information: https://community.myfitnesspal.com/en/discussion/1080242/a-guide-to-get-you-started-on-your-path-to-sexypants/p1
  • tonycrncich
    tonycrncich Posts: 1 Member
    My "What you'd weigh in 5 weeks" hasn't been accurate for the 16 weeks that I have been obsessively tracking on My Fitness Pal. Pretty depressing. I've gone from 217 to 194 in 16 weeks but the app constantly predicts that I'd be under 180 by now. I've only ever exceeded my calories twice in 4 months and exercise at least 500 calories a day. Most often, I exercise over 1000 calories a day; Always at least 500 under my calorie intake. Something needs to be adjusted in the App backend to be a more honest predictor.
  • Deviette
    Deviette Posts: 979 Member
    My "What you'd weigh in 5 weeks" hasn't been accurate for the 16 weeks that I have been obsessively tracking on My Fitness Pal. Pretty depressing. I've gone from 217 to 194 in 16 weeks but the app constantly predicts that I'd be under 180 by now. I've only ever exceeded my calories twice in 4 months and exercise at least 500 calories a day. Most often, I exercise over 1000 calories a day; Always at least 500 under my calorie intake. Something needs to be adjusted in the App backend to be a more honest predictor.

    I know it's super annoying. It's always been that bad at doing the predicting and there's often people posting saying that it's super unmotivating.

    If you're finding it annoying/unmotivation, I would suggest not closing your diary at the end of the day. The only thing pressing that button to close your diary actually does is bring up that pop up telling you the predicted loss. It doesn't actually change anything else, so you can totally use MFP without ever pressing that button (heck, I've not "closed" my diary in about 4 years now)
  • Lietchi
    Lietchi Posts: 4,041 Member
    edited May 23
    My "What you'd weigh in 5 weeks" hasn't been accurate for the 16 weeks that I have been obsessively tracking on My Fitness Pal. Pretty depressing. I've gone from 217 to 194 in 16 weeks but the app constantly predicts that I'd be under 180 by now. I've only ever exceeded my calories twice in 4 months and exercise at least 500 calories a day. Most often, I exercise over 1000 calories a day; Always at least 500 under my calorie intake. Something needs to be adjusted in the App backend to be a more honest predictor.

    There's nothing to be depressed about when you've lost 23lbs in 16 weeks. So perhaps focus on the great progress you've made, instead of some unreliable prediction?

    The numbers could be off because of an underestimation of your food intake, an overestimation of your exercise calories and/or because your metabolism isn't statistically average.

    I haven't closed my diary in years! Unnecessary and unreliable.