5 Week Estimate

CraftHer
CraftHer Posts: 30 Member
in Health and Weight Loss
I'm on my second week of recording my food. When I complete my day, it gives a 5 week estimate based on that day. I find this quite motivating. How accurate is this? What's your experience?

Replies

  • Camo_xxx
    Camo_xxx Posts: 1,082 Member
    It is as acurrate as your logging
  • Alatariel75
    Alatariel75 Posts: 18,227 Member
    Camo_xxx wrote: »
    It is as acurrate as your logging

    And as your ability to eat exactly the same amount, and to move exactly the same amount each day.
  • fraserkr
    fraserkr Posts: 110 Member
    I don't find much credence in the estimate. the estimate might be of value if you did as @Alatariel75 replied ...
  • Camo_xxx
    Camo_xxx Posts: 1,082 Member
    Pretty sure the message stipulates ifeveryday were like today, in other words your pace for today was XxX.
    It does not say you Will weigh xxx because of what you ate today.
    The message requires a degree of reading comprehension.
  • Alatariel75
    Alatariel75 Posts: 18,227 Member
    Camo_xxx wrote: »
    Pretty sure the message stipulates ifeveryday were like today, in other words your pace for today was XxX.
    It does not say you Will weigh xxx because of what you ate today.
    The message requires a degree of reading comprehension.

    And I'm saying that the only way to check accuracy would be to replicate those statistics for the five weeks and see. It requires a degree of logic.
  • Camo_xxx
    Camo_xxx Posts: 1,082 Member
    It's 6th grade math.
    The accuracy is dependent on you logging accurate date
  • echmain
    echmain Posts: 103 Member
    That 5 week estimate is completely useless. I wish they wouldn't bother to display it.

    It's an estimate based on a *single* data point.
  • beemerphile1
    beemerphile1 Posts: 1,710 Member
    echmain wrote: »
    That 5 week estimate is completely useless. I wish they wouldn't bother to display it.

    It's an estimate based on a *single* data point.

    It is meant as motivation, according to the OP they find it a motivator.
  • ilyo777
    ilyo777 Posts: 20 Member
    Would be much more useful if it was based on a rolling average of the past 7 days for example
  • Strudders67
    Strudders67 Posts: 989 Member
    I'd have found it motivating if, in 5 weeks, I did indeed weigh whatever it had said. But, as said above, you'll only weigh that much if you eat exactly the same, drink exactly the same, move exactly the same, every day for those 5 weeks, and didn't have a menstrual cycle to scupper the best laid plans.

    It gives you an idea and confirms that, if you keep your calories on track you'll see a weight loss, but that's what I'd expect from a calorie deficit anyway. If you find it motivational then it's doing it's job, but don't take it too literally.
  • AnnPT77
    AnnPT77 Posts: 34,216 Member
    This is an old thread (2016). It's a common topic. It would only be right if every day were exactly the same, all the logging was accurate . . . and if the person doing the logging was exactly average in statistical terms.

    All of this is just estimates, and calorie goals are basically a statistical average calorie need for demographically similar people. Most people will be close to average (because this distribution has a relatively small standard deviation). A few people will be noticeably off, high or low. A very rare few will be surprisingly far off in either direction. That's the nature of statistical estimates.

    MFP's prediction, when I have accurate entries in my profile, is crazy far off. It thinks I'd gain multiple pounds in 5 weeks, even when my own data says I'm losing, or even maintaining. (This is based on nearly 8 years of logging experience, BTW.)

    Run your personal experiment for 4-6 weeks, whole menstrual cycle(s) if that applies. Then adjust if necessary.
    ilyo777 wrote: »
    Would be much more useful if it was based on a rolling average of the past 7 days for example

    If you want that, get a weight trending app: Libra for Android, Happy Scale for Apple/iOS, Trendweight (requires a free Fitbit account but you don't need a device), Trendweight . . . there are probably others. Weigh daily under consistent conditions (first thing in AM, after bathroom before food/drink, same state of (un-)dress is good). Even the rolling trend is wrong, sometimes. It's still just statistics.

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