5 Week Estimate
CraftHer
Posts: 30 Member
I'm on my second week of recording my food. When I complete my day, it gives a 5 week estimate based on that day. I find this quite motivating. How accurate is this? What's your experience?
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Replies
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It is as acurrate as your logging0
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I don't find much credence in the estimate. the estimate might be of value if you did as @Alatariel75 replied ...0
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Pretty sure the message stipulates ifeveryday were like today, in other words your pace for today was XxX.
It does not say you Will weigh xxx because of what you ate today.
The message requires a degree of reading comprehension.
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Pretty sure the message stipulates ifeveryday were like today, in other words your pace for today was XxX.
It does not say you Will weigh xxx because of what you ate today.
The message requires a degree of reading comprehension.
And I'm saying that the only way to check accuracy would be to replicate those statistics for the five weeks and see. It requires a degree of logic.1 -
It's 6th grade math.
The accuracy is dependent on you logging accurate date0 -
That 5 week estimate is completely useless. I wish they wouldn't bother to display it.
It's an estimate based on a *single* data point.0 -
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Would be much more useful if it was based on a rolling average of the past 7 days for example1
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I'd have found it motivating if, in 5 weeks, I did indeed weigh whatever it had said. But, as said above, you'll only weigh that much if you eat exactly the same, drink exactly the same, move exactly the same, every day for those 5 weeks, and didn't have a menstrual cycle to scupper the best laid plans.
It gives you an idea and confirms that, if you keep your calories on track you'll see a weight loss, but that's what I'd expect from a calorie deficit anyway. If you find it motivational then it's doing it's job, but don't take it too literally.0 -
This is an old thread (2016). It's a common topic. It would only be right if every day were exactly the same, all the logging was accurate . . . and if the person doing the logging was exactly average in statistical terms.
All of this is just estimates, and calorie goals are basically a statistical average calorie need for demographically similar people. Most people will be close to average (because this distribution has a relatively small standard deviation). A few people will be noticeably off, high or low. A very rare few will be surprisingly far off in either direction. That's the nature of statistical estimates.
MFP's prediction, when I have accurate entries in my profile, is crazy far off. It thinks I'd gain multiple pounds in 5 weeks, even when my own data says I'm losing, or even maintaining. (This is based on nearly 8 years of logging experience, BTW.)
Run your personal experiment for 4-6 weeks, whole menstrual cycle(s) if that applies. Then adjust if necessary.Would be much more useful if it was based on a rolling average of the past 7 days for example
If you want that, get a weight trending app: Libra for Android, Happy Scale for Apple/iOS, Trendweight (requires a free Fitbit account but you don't need a device), Trendweight . . . there are probably others. Weigh daily under consistent conditions (first thing in AM, after bathroom before food/drink, same state of (un-)dress is good). Even the rolling trend is wrong, sometimes. It's still just statistics.0
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