Do carbs sabotage my plan?

I've done doing fairly well over the past month losing slow and steady. Last night we had pizza for dinner (special treat) and this morning I'm up 2.5 pounds. Is it causing water retention or is it actual weight gain?
Answers
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Water.
Nothing wrong with carbs. Most people prefer an amount that gives them a good amount of energy.
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It's just water. Carbs are fine. In fact, your body runs on carbs for energy. If you don't eat carbs, you end up wasting a lot of protein that could go to building/maintaining muscle, but instead your body is forced to waste it on just surviving and flushes it down the toilet at the end of the day.
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Pizza Isn't just 'carbs', it's often also a lot of fat and, more importantly, a lot of salt. Salt = water retention.
Do yourself a favor and don't use individual weigh-ins to judge progress or lack thereof: weight fluctuates daily because of water weight and food waste in your digestive tract, as your pizza night illustrates. You need to look at the long term trend of your weight, averaging the individual weigh-ins.
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This is where math is our friend. You would have had to of eaten in an 8,000+ calorie surplus yesterday to gain 2.5 lbs of fat. Thats your maintenance calories PLUS 8,000+. Lots of things make the scale go up and down unrelated to fat gain and loss!
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Apparently for every gram of carbs you consume, you retain 4g of water to process it. So 300g carbs is 1.5kg on the scale until the water has done it's job and gets flushed.
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water. I’ve gone up 5 lbs. just eating Mac and cheese before bed. It’ll go away.
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In order to truly gain 2.5lbs … that's ~8,750 calories….
So you didn't gain that much weight. My weight can swing ~5lbs….depending on my activity level, what I've eaten (how much sodium I've had, etc) and what time in my cycle I'm in.
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