"If every day were like today..."

MFP is lying to me. lol. I know not everything I log is 100% perfectly accurate, but it's very close... and no, I do not weigh anywhere near what it tells me I will if I keep it up. I do exercise (at least 5 days a week for 25-30 min or more) and I'm eating at a deficit more days than not. Now, granted I have some water weight on me right now, but I'm kind of (ok, VERY) frustrated at not feeling as though I'm losing much. I've read the posts on eating more, but some days I can't get over my recommended limit if I exercise... I'm taking fiber and a multivitamin and not feeling all too hungry on top of what I already eat.

Today MFP told me that "If every day were like today" I'd weigh 142.5lbs in 5 weeks. I call BS. I'm doing a month-long challenge for March and have weighed in twice, plan to again on Monday... and in these 16 days I've lost all of 2lbs (last weigh-in was 153.6 before water gain, so I'm wondering if it's even less than that). And since I've started here, while I feel infinitely better and more energized, I haven't seen an ounce of physical, noticeable change - all my clothes still fit, even if I seem to look ok in straight-cut jeans these days... Anyway, losing 11 in 5 weeks doesn't seem plausible, and today was a semi-normal day.

Thoughts?

Fabulous! I hope it lies......Because If every day were like today.... I would be gaining weigh and weigh two more pounds in five weeks!

It's based on your net calories and only accurate in large amounts for those who are OBESE.

If you are only 15lb overweight and you eat 1,200 calories in a day, and burn another 1,300 - it may tell you you'll lose 12lb in 5 weeks but you most likely won't, in fact if you kept it up you may even go into starvation mode.

However, if you're 60lb overweight and eat 1,200 calories in a day and burn another 1,300, those predictions are far more accurate.

ok, um first of all ... your not seeing any changes in your clothing bc you have only lost 5 pounds. I have lost 11 pounds and am just now starting to be able to wear one size smaller in pants. You wont notice changes in clothing until you lose at least 10 pounds or tons of inches. Second, i lost 11 pounds in 5 weeks so it can be done! just give it time geeze! i swear people lose 2 pounds and expects to be 2 sizes smaller or something!

This feature is actually one of the things that draws me in. I never track it to see if it is accurate, but it gets the point across.

That's funny because I asked a few questions about why the 5-week projection was always so low. LOL!

I'm set to lose 2lbs/week, and have been achieving that (for months, prior to joining MFP). Yet every time I clicked that "complete" button, it would say I was only going to lose 1-4lbs in 5 weeks, "if every day were like today...."

In fact, wthin my first few days of joining MFP, I noticed I lost more weight in one day, than MFP told me I'd lose in 5 weeks. What I mean is, it said I'd be (this) weight in 5 weeks, and my weight the next morning was less than that 5-week projected weight.

I eventually set the program not to show the "complete" button, and I have no desire to use it. It was not only preposterously implausible (given my success at losing weight so far), but very demotivating (since my projections were always so low).

The one and only time it said I was on track to lose 2lbs/week was a day where I clicked "complete" early in the day, with still hundreds of calories left.

Weight loss isn't linear. You will lose more some weeks, less other weeks. It may end up matching MFP's predictions or be more or less. What difference does it make? As long as you are getting closer to your goal, isn't that the main thing.

Also, MFP can't be totally accurate based on the fact that some of us burn hotter than others (metabolism fluctuations) and it can't account for water loss/gains which can be due to salt intake or various hormonal issues. Plus, when you exercise intensely enough to stress your muscles, they will hold onto water during the healing process.

And it's just some math based on you doing the exact calorie burn and eating the exact number of calories you ate that day, every day for those 5 weeks. Really, does anybody do that? There are many other variables, too. I just look at that prediction as a fun little toy.

I also think you need to learn some patience. The best weight loss as it's more enduring and more healthy is at a slower pace anyway. Don't sweat it and just learn to enjoy the process. Getting healthier and more fit and, hopefully, slimmer too, can be a lot of fun.

And, like someone said above, you can lose inches without losing weight. From the end of the holidays to early February I only lost 1# but I dropped a pant size. The scale is really the worst way to gauge your progress.