Help, caloric intake

The system put my net calories at 1,500 based on a sedentary BMR and a goal of 1.5 pounds weight loss per week. I'm 5'8 and about 209 lbs, trying to get down to around 180. Have a desk job, and drive to work, so I figured sedentary it should be.

Last week, I hit my weekly goal for net calories (some days I was 100-200 over 1,500, some days 100-200 below). I eat back calories burned through exercise. It is possible I have been underestimating some food calories, though also have been underestimating exercise (I took a HRM to the gym tonight and that gave me a much better read on calories burned).

I've been doing cardio and strength training. Weight loss hasn't been as good as my clothes fitting better over the past 3 weeks.

There's some guesswork involved and in the end, I figure as long as I am close, being 100-200 calories off per day is at most the difference of 1/2 pound per week. For instance, if I really should be on the lightly active setting, at 1,700 net cals, since my weight loss is set at 1.5 pounds, well I will just burn an extra 1,400 a week or about another half pound for a total of a 2-pound loss. On the other hand, if I understimated 200 calories per day--some foods, such as a deli sandwich, are difficult to estimate--then well, I'm 1,400 over for the week, which is a bit less than half a pound, so I lose only a pound in a week.

Hoping this works. Getting all this right seems to be an art.