Time to exit the market?
Stock returns have been massive lately, but it doesnt feel right. Something's amiss. So is it time to exit the market. But where would you go? US stocks seem overvalued. Non-US seem risky. If you allocate to bonds, you are facing with a huge risk of rising interest rates, and money markets are offering next to nothing. Inflation will eat up your checking.
Its like we now live in a times where you cannot protect your money no matter how hard you try. Thievery I say!
Its like we now live in a times where you cannot protect your money no matter how hard you try. Thievery I say!
0
Replies
-
The price you have to pay for betting your money on other people's work. Isn't capitalism awesome?0
-
MFP is always the first place i go when i want financial advice.0
-
MFP is always the first place i go when i want financial advice.
My first (and only) thought when I saw this thread.0 -
There is a whole genre of people who believe the FED is artificially keeping the market at all time highs through the influx of federal monies into the system.
I don't really believe we have a true market, too much big money controlling too much of the stock base. I count the FED as just another flavor of big money. The globalness of the markets is a pretty big risk in general.
You really are damned if you do, damned if you don't. You cannot garner any sort of rate of return on the old fashioned mechanisms people used to bank on. It's either you are part of the game, or you are simply "saving" money.0 -
Put it under your mattress... So I can steal it later.0
-
MFP is always the first place i go when i want financial advice.
My first (and only) thought when I saw this thread.
yeah. ^^This0 -
Mine is in a Maxwell House tine under the house.0
-
Mine is in a Maxwell House tin under the house.0
-
There is a whole genre of people who believe the FED is artificially keeping the market at all time highs through the influx of federal monies into the system.
I don't really believe we have a true market, too much big money controlling too much of the stock base. I count the FED as just another flavor of big money. The globalness of the markets is a pretty big risk in general.
You really are damned if you do, damned if you don't. You cannot garner any sort of rate of return on the old fashioned mechanisms people used to bank on. It's either you are part of the game, or you are simply "saving" money.
haha...all the wisecracks who said you couldnt get good financial analysis on MFP, this post is probably the best I've read describing the new reality we live in. Suckers!0 -
Gold lots of gold stock pile it along with guns, cigarettes, booze, and porn that way when it all comes crashing down you have the best bartering tools around. Although you might not do to bad with silver and copper easier to trade for small barters.
It's pretty scary what was once a safe bet is no longer. Hell even housing is risky now! Seriously though, I've pretty much come to the thinking that there will be nothing for my retirement as I can't save now, I live off credit, I live above my means, I dont own a house or have any real equity, in the US we have a huge retiring population that is taking a big hit on the social security and medicare system now, and I'm almost 40. It's been an eyeopener working in the long term care industry too there are only two ways to become old rich or dirt poor. I'm taking the dirt poor route spend it now and hope for the best later.0 -
Our new reality is: there are haves, and there are have-nots and never the twain shall meet. There always were rich and poor, but you could improve your financial status through hard work. Not any more. There are no rules, there is no rhyme or reason. You could feel it starting in 2007. The rules have been rigged.0
-
Our new reality is: there are haves, and there are have-nots and never the twain shall meet. There always were rich and poor, but you could improve your financial status through hard work. Not any more. There are no rules, there is no rhyme or reason. You could feel it starting in 2007. The rules have been rigged.
There are still ways to earn a decent % of return...I happen to manage the finances of "most" of the people in my immediate family (because they asked, and I accepted)...
I tell my kids to put money in larger companies that have decent dividend yields...for a couple of reasons. 1. You are getting a steady stream of money for re-investment, which makes stock price not the "entire" underlying decision base and subsequent true value of the investments you hold. 2. These large corporations of today are global as well, and have the ability to manage risk through use of different government strategies to shelter/protect their assets and capital. 3. Larger companies aren't as easily put "out of business" through normal market movement (however true or contrived that is), as they have a large asset base and many different forms of income/capital at their disposal.
Every "portfolio" however, should really diversify in a mix of large/small US business, yes some bonds, and dare I say it, some foreign companies as well. I simply ensure for my children and relatives that what they put their money in isn't the "fly by night" stuff, but rather known entities with good track records.
You are not guaranteed a company/stock/fund etc.. will perform tomorrow what it has over the past 30,50, 80 years...but I personally consider the larger companies more "prepared" to weather the storm if/when it hits.
Good luck!0 -
^ good advice and thanks. I take it you are saying large cap is a better bet in current times, and your logic is sound. I am nervous because currently the gap between the economy and stock market is widening and I am not convinced the large cap companies can protect themselves from a meltdown either. So I think I am tempted to exit altogether for a few months.0
-
^ good advice and thanks. I take it you are saying large cap is a better bet in current times, and your logic is sound. I am nervous because currently the gap between the economy and stock market is widening and I am not convinced the large cap companies can protect themselves from a meltdown either. So I think I am tempted to exit altogether for a few months.
From a true meltdown....all bets are off. But from a market correction, say a 5k base dow correction down to a 10k ish level, I think you will find good stable large caps will weather that better than the majority of smalls will. It really should come to light if the FED ever decides to quit pumping QE (quantitative easement), and actually raises interest rates to a respectable level.
Nothing wrong with moving out of the market altogether, especially if you gut tells you that a major correction "must" be around the corner.
It's pretty hard to market time. I have never seen anyone do it with any sort of real consistency, and I have never been able to do it well either. The good thing is, if you decide to move the majority out, you shouldn't "lose" a mass amount if that large correction hits.
If you do decide to move out completely...be prepared to wait and don't jump back in too soon.
I wish you luck and great success in your investing.!0 -
Our new reality is: there are haves, and there are have-nots and never the twain shall meet. There always were rich and poor, but you could improve your financial status through hard work. Not any more. There are no rules, there is no rhyme or reason. You could feel it starting in 2007. The rules have been rigged.
There are still ways to earn a decent % of return...I happen to manage the finances of "most" of the people in my immediate family (because they asked, and I accepted)...
I tell my kids to put money in larger companies that have decent dividend yields...for a couple of reasons. 1. You are getting a steady stream of money for re-investment, which makes stock price not the "entire" underlying decision base and subsequent true value of the investments you hold. 2. These large corporations of today are global as well, and have the ability to manage risk through use of different government strategies to shelter/protect their assets and capital. 3. Larger companies aren't as easily put "out of business" through normal market movement (however true or contrived that is), as they have a large asset base and many different forms of income/capital at their disposal.
Every "portfolio" however, should really diversify in a mix of large/small US business, yes some bonds, and dare I say it, some foreign companies as well. I simply ensure for my children and relatives that what they put their money in isn't the "fly by night" stuff, but rather known entities with good track records.
You are not guaranteed a company/stock/fund etc.. will perform tomorrow what it has over the past 30,50, 80 years...but I personally consider the larger companies more "prepared" to weather the storm if/when it hits.
Good luck!
How much do you tell them to put into the companies what % of their income? How do they even save to put money into these companies? I'm guilty like millions of other Americans in that I pay rent, I'm still making payments on two cars, I have a couple big balances on some credit cards, student loans, and now an RV payment (I know kick me stupid stupid). I have a hell of time even saving $50 when it's like well I could pay more on the principal for this credit card or *kitten* it I need my favorite bottle of perfume and the fiance wants to buy a freaking $120 ladder. How do people do it has always been my question? I'd love to be some financial wiz and diversify and save, but frankly there is no way I could unless I go bankrupt and start all over again. Then theres the other side of me that looks at all of the people who lost money on this last crash, and you think why would you want to risk gambling on stocks when a pension and home is now a gamble. Good your teaching your kids about money now. No one talks about money its another taboo subject, and they grow up like me a complete money idiot who didnt know the difference between principal or interest till I got my first credit card. I wont even tell you about the fiance he has no concept about money, I swear he's like Rainman!
Sorry long post, but it got me thinking how do you even start when your living like everyone else who is going to be screwed because we had to live off credit.0 -
^ good advice and thanks. I take it you are saying large cap is a better bet in current times, and your logic is sound. I am nervous because currently the gap between the economy and stock market is widening and I am not convinced the large cap companies can protect themselves from a meltdown either. So I think I am tempted to exit altogether for a few months.
From a true meltdown....all bets are off. But from a market correction, say a 5k base dow correction down to a 10k ish level, I think you will find good stable large caps will weather that better than the majority of smalls will. It really should come to light if the FED ever decides to quit pumping QE (quantitative easement), and actually raises interest rates to a respectable level.
Nothing wrong with moving out of the market altogether, especially if you gut tells you that a major correction "must" be around the corner.
It's pretty hard to market time. I have never seen anyone do it with any sort of real consistency, and I have never been able to do it well either. The good thing is, if you decide to move the majority out, you shouldn't "lose" a mass amount if that large correction hits.
If you do decide to move out completely...be prepared to wait and don't jump back in too soon.
I wish you luck and great success in your investing.!
You know your *kitten* bro. This coming from a CFA charterholder. I do not believe in market or interest rate timing, but I am not a bullish investor. When I get to certain levels of return for a certain period, I just tend to revert to a more conservative mentality. I am more willing to give up the upside for downside protection. But I could be too conservative. I am young and can sit in there for decades until I actually need the money. But something about this market smell very fishy. Thanks for your very intelligent comments!0 -
You answered your own question. Where do you go? Well the only place to go has been stocks for the last few years. When that changes the money will move fastert than you can click your little mouse button
0 -
I would invest somewhere like Vanguard that doesn't get involved in the trendy financial products that tend to be most ruinous. As a general rule - diversify, diversify, diversify - to protect investments. You'll get slower growth overall, but with less risk.0
-
I would invest somewhere like Vanguard that doesn't get involved in the trendy financial products that tend to be most ruinous. As a general rule - diversify, diversify, diversify - to protect investments. You'll get slower growth overall, but with less risk.
this is what the media tell you.0 -
Our new reality is: there are haves, and there are have-nots and never the twain shall meet. There always were rich and poor, but you could improve your financial status through hard work. Not any more. There are no rules, there is no rhyme or reason. You could feel it starting in 2007. The rules have been rigged.
There are still ways to earn a decent % of return...I happen to manage the finances of "most" of the people in my immediate family (because they asked, and I accepted)...
I tell my kids to put money in larger companies that have decent dividend yields...for a couple of reasons. 1. You are getting a steady stream of money for re-investment, which makes stock price not the "entire" underlying decision base and subsequent true value of the investments you hold. 2. These large corporations of today are global as well, and have the ability to manage risk through use of different government strategies to shelter/protect their assets and capital. 3. Larger companies aren't as easily put "out of business" through normal market movement (however true or contrived that is), as they have a large asset base and many different forms of income/capital at their disposal.
Every "portfolio" however, should really diversify in a mix of large/small US business, yes some bonds, and dare I say it, some foreign companies as well. I simply ensure for my children and relatives that what they put their money in isn't the "fly by night" stuff, but rather known entities with good track records.
You are not guaranteed a company/stock/fund etc.. will perform tomorrow what it has over the past 30,50, 80 years...but I personally consider the larger companies more "prepared" to weather the storm if/when it hits.
Good luck!
How much do you tell them to put into the companies what % of their income? How do they even save to put money into these companies? I'm guilty like millions of other Americans in that I pay rent, I'm still making payments on two cars, I have a couple big balances on some credit cards, student loans, and now an RV payment (I know kick me stupid stupid). I have a hell of time even saving $50 when it's like well I could pay more on the principal for this credit card or *kitten* it I need my favorite bottle of perfume and the fiance wants to buy a freaking $120 ladder. How do people do it has always been my question? I'd love to be some financial wiz and diversify and save, but frankly there is no way I could unless I go bankrupt and start all over again. Then theres the other side of me that looks at all of the people who lost money on this last crash, and you think why would you want to risk gambling on stocks when a pension and home is now a gamble. Good your teaching your kids about money now. No one talks about money its another taboo subject, and they grow up like me a complete money idiot who didnt know the difference between principal or interest till I got my first credit card. I wont even tell you about the fiance he has no concept about money, I swear he's like Rainman!
Sorry long post, but it got me thinking how do you even start when your living like everyone else who is going to be screwed because we had to live off credit.
What you are describing is a much bigger issue than what you are investing in. You are describing being over-extended on your current finances. You need to get that in order first. If you are in constant debt, you need to get rid of that debt.
I tell my children the truth. If you want something, you just "want" it. If you "need" something, you cannot live your life without it.
You can live without cable, the RV, smartphones, sometimes a car (sometimes not), etc..etc..etc... If you want to be financially stable and prepared for your future, you really do have to kind of treat it like your weight/fitness...you just do it, you do what it takes to make it fit your life.
I hope you get it worked out and my advice to you personally would be to get rid of all your debt and make that the absolute most important thing for you financially.0 -
Also all the ads on TV i see by all kinds of people like Fidelity, Blackrock, Franklin Templeton etc etc at al....who tell you how you can just get to your beautiful retirement if you only gave them your money - its just a lot of sales and marketing (trying to avoid calling is BS). These guys have only one goal - make more money off of you. My skin crawls when one of these commercials come on TV.0
-
Physical assets is the way to go, whether it's gold, silver, copper, etc. I wouldn't touch stocks or bonds with a billion foot pole right now, or in the near future. It's a hot mess right now, and there is a lot more going on than meets the eye with market manipulation (think Enron). The US doesn't produce anything, you can't garner real wealth from a country that only sustains itself on services. Either look into other countries's assets (though they're all about as broke as us), or buy actual goods that have a resale value like precious metals. If I was you I'd leave the market as soon as possible, before everyone else jumps ship.0
-
The market is cyclical but the rules have changed a bit. Invest for the long term in companies that have a strong presence in the market, a good track record, and a strategy designed to grow profit margins.
There are values to be had if you can handle a short term roller coaster ride for long term gains.0 -
i keep mine in a banana stand in OC.
i've said too much.0 -
If you want to be financially stable and prepared for your future, you really do have to kind of treat it like your weight/fitness...you just do it, you do what it takes to make it fit your life.
This is very true. I learned it in the opposite direction: my success in losing weight only happened when I managed to apply the same types of tracking and analysis tools I've applied to my finances for years. MFP allows me to do this, although a little less exactly, since I can't be accurate to two decimal places.
The math is much the same, though: large effects of thousands of tiny choices, aggregated together over the years.0 -
I'm guilty like millions of other Americans in that I pay rent, I'm still making payments on two cars, I have a couple big balances on some credit cards, student loans, and now an RV payment (I know kick me stupid stupid). I have a hell of time even saving $50 when it's like well I could pay more on the principal for this credit card or *kitten* it I need my favorite bottle of perfume and the fiance wants to buy a freaking $120 ladder. How do people do it has always been my question?
Sorry long post, but it got me thinking how do you even start when your living like everyone else who is going to be screwed because we had to live off credit.
All the answers you need are right here in your own post. You've borrowed to CONSUME rather than borrowing to INVEST.(loose definition of INVEST)
"How do people do it?"
They save first, then spend.
They drive crappy cars for a few years while they're saving for the next car. And they drive that next car for at least 10 years.
Instead of saying "I need a new RV" they say "I'm only going to use this twice a year, and there's plenty of places to rent an RV 2x a year"
They learn not to say "fck it" and buy that bottle of perfume, when that $50 today can save them $120 over the next 10 years.
They walk next door with a cold brewski and say "Neighbor, can I borrow your ladder?"
They eat baloney sandwhiches for lunch every day instead of going out.
And it all adds up. If you can truly afford all of those payments, you can afford to get yourself out of debt. Maybe it means you don't smell as nice. Maybe it means you borrow a ladder instead of buying. And it's going to take a little while.0 -
quote "How much do you tell them to put into the companies what % of their income? How do they even save to put money into these companies? I'm guilty like millions of other Americans in that I pay rent, I'm still making payments on two cars, I have a couple big balances on some credit cards, student loans, and now an RV payment (I know kick me stupid stupid). I have a hell of time even saving $50 when it's like well I could pay more on the principal for this credit card or *kitten* it I need my favorite bottle of perfume and the fiance wants to buy a freaking $120 ladder. How do people do it has always been my question? I'd love to be some financial wiz and diversify and save, but frankly there is no way I could unless I go bankrupt and start all over again. Then theres the other side of me that looks at all of the people who lost money on this last crash, and you think why would you want to risk gambling on stocks when a pension and home is now a gamble. Good your teaching your kids about money now. No one talks about money its another taboo subject, and they grow up like me a complete money idiot who didnt know the difference between principal or interest till I got my first credit card. I wont even tell you about the fiance he has no concept about money, I swear he's like Rainman!
Sorry long post, but it got me thinking how do you even start when your living like everyone else who is going to be screwed because we had to live off credit."
[/quote]
It's called discipline.
I save 12% in my 401K, my company gives me another 7% match (sweet huh). My wife is a teacher and her union takes 10% in pension and we put another $100 per pay period into a 403B. You have to establish a budget (even a loose one) that takes 12-15% of gross pay off the top for 401k or IRA and then go from there. From your post you have large cc balances, which is the ultimate financial sin.
I pay $2,600 in rent (we moved to South Florida last year and sold our house), $497 in car payment and carry $0 on cc's. We have available credit of around $75k but never use even a portion of it.
The other thing we did was separate our money into an operating account and a "other" account. Operating pays the mail able bills (rent, utilities, car and insurance) and other pays for gas, groceries and other trips to Target or out to dinner. Makes life easier when tracking expenses and wondering where all your money went.
As for giving back your 2013 gains (my ROI this year is 18.5%), you need to move into broad indexes...They take a longer time to drop in value as it is an index of an entire cap (large, medium or small)...Personally I have moved most of my funds into Large cap in anticipation of a bear market. The other thing to do is run the investment scenarios in your 401k company (like Fidelity). Tell them you are risk adverse and it will find the safest investments for you (all 401k's are at risk so no true risk adverse investment options--but can shelter you a bit).
I come from a one parent family with 4 boys--so I know hard times and wondering if there will be enough money for clothes or food. I have worked hard, got educated and certified and now make a good salary. My mother always said that you live for today but plan for tomorrow. Sage advice from a woman who never made more than $15 an hour but kept a roof over our heads and food on the table.
Silly cliché, but holds true. ANY savings has a compounding effect so even if you think starting with taking $50 a pay period will never add up to anything, you will be surprised. Once you start, you will find ways to increase your savings......sell the crap you don't need (seriously, you even buys RV's anymore).
Good luck and don't be afraid to take the first step.0 -
Our new reality is: there are haves, and there are have-nots and never the twain shall meet. There always were rich and poor, but you could improve your financial status through hard work. Not any more. There are no rules, there is no rhyme or reason. You could feel it starting in 2007. The rules have been rigged.
There are still ways to earn a decent % of return...I happen to manage the finances of "most" of the people in my immediate family (because they asked, and I accepted)...
I tell my kids to put money in larger companies that have decent dividend yields...for a couple of reasons. 1. You are getting a steady stream of money for re-investment, which makes stock price not the "entire" underlying decision base and subsequent true value of the investments you hold. 2. These large corporations of today are global as well, and have the ability to manage risk through use of different government strategies to shelter/protect their assets and capital. 3. Larger companies aren't as easily put "out of business" through normal market movement (however true or contrived that is), as they have a large asset base and many different forms of income/capital at their disposal.
Every "portfolio" however, should really diversify in a mix of large/small US business, yes some bonds, and dare I say it, some foreign companies as well. I simply ensure for my children and relatives that what they put their money in isn't the "fly by night" stuff, but rather known entities with good track records.
You are not guaranteed a company/stock/fund etc.. will perform tomorrow what it has over the past 30,50, 80 years...but I personally consider the larger companies more "prepared" to weather the storm if/when it hits.
Good luck!
How much do you tell them to put into the companies what % of their income? How do they even save to put money into these companies? I'm guilty like millions of other Americans in that I pay rent, I'm still making payments on two cars, I have a couple big balances on some credit cards, student loans, and now an RV payment (I know kick me stupid stupid). I have a hell of time even saving $50 when it's like well I could pay more on the principal for this credit card or *kitten* it I need my favorite bottle of perfume and the fiance wants to buy a freaking $120 ladder. How do people do it has always been my question? I'd love to be some financial wiz and diversify and save, but frankly there is no way I could unless I go bankrupt and start all over again. Then theres the other side of me that looks at all of the people who lost money on this last crash, and you think why would you want to risk gambling on stocks when a pension and home is now a gamble. Good your teaching your kids about money now. No one talks about money its another taboo subject, and they grow up like me a complete money idiot who didnt know the difference between principal or interest till I got my first credit card. I wont even tell you about the fiance he has no concept about money, I swear he's like Rainman!
Sorry long post, but it got me thinking how do you even start when your living like everyone else who is going to be screwed because we had to live off credit.
What you are describing is a much bigger issue than what you are investing in. You are describing being over-extended on your current finances. You need to get that in order first. If you are in constant debt, you need to get rid of that debt.
I tell my children the truth. If you want something, you just "want" it. If you "need" something, you cannot live your life without it.
You can live without cable, the RV, smartphones, sometimes a car (sometimes not), etc..etc..etc... If you want to be financially stable and prepared for your future, you really do have to kind of treat it like your weight/fitness...you just do it, you do what it takes to make it fit your life.
I hope you get it worked out and my advice to you personally would be to get rid of all your debt and make that the absolute most important thing for you financially.
I'm pretty typical I'll stretch the credit fairy out until that poor guy bleeds, LOL! But thats a whole other topic...sorry to highjack. Hey I'm another reason your stock market is so wonky. There was a great South Park episode about the 2009 crash. If you ever get to watch it very funny and so true.0 -
Physical assets is the way to go, whether it's gold, silver, copper, etc. I wouldn't touch stocks or bonds with a billion foot pole right now, or in the near future. It's a hot mess right now, and there is a lot more going on than meets the eye with market manipulation (think Enron). The US doesn't produce anything, you can't garner real wealth from a country that only sustains itself on services. Either look into other countries's assets (though they're all about as broke as us), or buy actual goods that have a resale value like precious metals. If I was you I'd leave the market as soon as possible, before everyone else jumps ship.
The problem I see with physical assets is that in a scenario where these are the primary assets and we are living in a barter trade economy, you need a lot of physical force and protection. You need to be able to store, protect and transfer your assets. People like you and me do not have the means for that kind of protection.0 -
Physical assets is the way to go, whether it's gold, silver, copper, etc. I wouldn't touch stocks or bonds with a billion foot pole right now, or in the near future. It's a hot mess right now, and there is a lot more going on than meets the eye with market manipulation (think Enron). The US doesn't produce anything, you can't garner real wealth from a country that only sustains itself on services. Either look into other countries's assets (though they're all about as broke as us), or buy actual goods that have a resale value like precious metals. If I was you I'd leave the market as soon as possible, before everyone else jumps ship.
I have been reading articles from some of the commodity experts who are predicting gold to return to $400 to $500 an ounce in the near term. If you invest at current levels, you will be broke much quicker than a market correction. Move your portfolio into a safer harbor near term and wade back in when the waters settle.
I used to save only 5% in my 401K and then the market crashed....And I upped my contribution to 8% and then 10% when it went further down. Last year my increased contributions paid handsomely. This year I upped my contribution another 2% and my return is 18.5% ytd. Buying cheap stock is a great way to ride the wave when it goes back up (and history tells us it always goes back up--sorry Obama you are not the reason). I was down like 50% in my portfolio as I was increasing my contribution %.....knowing the bounce would more than make up for the loss. My portfolio has more than doubled in the last 2 plus years.
I'm by no means a genius in the market, I simply followed my gut instincts and took some good advice form some very smart folks who know the market.0
Categories
- All Categories
- 1.4M Health, Wellness and Goals
- 393.4K Introduce Yourself
- 43.8K Getting Started
- 260.2K Health and Weight Loss
- 175.9K Food and Nutrition
- 47.4K Recipes
- 232.5K Fitness and Exercise
- 426 Sleep, Mindfulness and Overall Wellness
- 6.5K Goal: Maintaining Weight
- 8.5K Goal: Gaining Weight and Body Building
- 153K Motivation and Support
- 8K Challenges
- 1.3K Debate Club
- 96.3K Chit-Chat
- 2.5K Fun and Games
- 3.7K MyFitnessPal Information
- 24 News and Announcements
- 1.1K Feature Suggestions and Ideas
- 2.6K MyFitnessPal Tech Support Questions