Is MFP projected weight loss accurate?

jules92761
jules92761 Posts: 55 Member
in Getting Started
I'm starting over and just took the guided "tour" to set up my calorie and fitness goals. I would like to lose 15 - 20 pounds. I selected working out 5 days a week for 45 minutes and that I wanted to lose 2 pounds a week. MFP is giving me a calorie goal of 1200 calories a day but it says I will only lose .07 pounds a week - or 3 pounds by February 3rd!!! Has anyone found that to be accurate? A couple of years ago I did low carb and lost about 8 pounds in a month - I was hoping to have that same kind of success with calorie counting....
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Replies

  • nivi_r
    nivi_r Posts: 37 Member
    I think MFP does not let you go below 1200 calories, regardless of your current weight and goals and exercise.
  • yarwell
    yarwell Posts: 10,477 Member
    The 1200 is a floor in the calorie allocation. If the math said you needed to eat 1000 to get to your goal it would still give you 1200 and a lower weight loss.

    The workouts have no effect on the calc. It uses activity level and if most women select sedentary and 1 lb/week or more it sits the calories at 1200.
  • jules92761
    jules92761 Posts: 55 Member
    Thanks. I don't really want to go below 1200 calories - but I was hoping I could lose a little faster than that given my past experience with low carb. Maybe that is the route to go again.
  • KBurkhardt08
    KBurkhardt08 Posts: 141 Member
    I've been doing this for about 3 weeks now and I think I'm losing a little faster then MFP says I will be. I've lost about 8 so far so definitely a little faster. But I think it all depends on the person really. People with more to lose will often lose faster.
  • yarwell
    yarwell Posts: 10,477 Member
    If you can be more active than the "sedentary" setting or do exercise and not eat back the extra calories it will accelerate the weight loss somewhat. To follow the MFP math if you eat 1200 and want 2 lbs/week you have to use 2200 cals/day.
  • jules92761
    jules92761 Posts: 55 Member
    Thanks, KBurkhardt08 - that is encouraging.

    yarwell - Thanks for your feedback too! Wow - 2200 a day... I think it said my typical amount I use without exercise is around 1700-1800. I was going to start the Ultimate Yogi series of DVD's but maybe I will opt for the elliptical instead. It shows a bigger calorie burn according to MFP. Although MFP just has "yoga" and doesn't make the distinction between power/vinyassa yoga or a less active class.
  • bwogilvie
    bwogilvie Posts: 2,130 Member
    jw92761 wrote: »
    ...maybe I will opt for the elliptical instead. It shows a bigger calorie burn according to MFP.

    The calorie burns in MFP's database are often highly exaggerated. They're not too far off for moderate to fast running (10-minute miles and faster), in my experience, but for other things, they're inflated. When I cycle on flat ground at 17 mph, my cycle computer/HRM estimates that I burn about 450-500 calories an hour. But MFP estimates 800 calories/hour, which is over 60% higher.

    A lot of people get frustrated with MFP, even if they are counting calories in their food accurately, because they believe its inflated exercise calorie estimates and, as a result, eat more than they need to maintain their desired deficit. A good rule of thumb is to log only 50-75% of MFP's estimate, and after a few weeks, compare your goals with results.

    BTW, it's not MFP's fault that its estimates are often too high. MFP seems to use the MET values in the Compendium of Physical Activities as the basis for its database, like many other sites. The Compendium is based on a wide range of research studies, some of which are more reliable than others, and it doesn't take into consideration that calories expended in some activities depend far less on weight than in others. Running and walking calories are fairly weight dependent, but in cycling fast, wind resistance is far more important than weight.
  • lynn_glenmont
    lynn_glenmont Posts: 10,072 Member
    jw92761 wrote: »
    MFP is giving me a calorie goal of 1200 calories a day but it says I will only lose .07 pounds a week - or 3 pounds by February 3rd!!!

    ^This and
    I think it said my typical amount I use without exercise is around 1700-1800.

    ^this

    are contradictory. If MFP thinks the amount you use without exercise is around 1700 to 1800 a day, it should predict you will lose about a pound a week on 1200 net calories a day. Perhaps you accidentally changed something in your profile between the time MFP calculated the 1700 to 1800 a day figure, and the time you saw the .07 pounds a week figure? Or is the .07 pounds a week the number you got when you clicked on "complete this entry" at the end of the day, and it was a day when you ate close to 1700 calories?

  • shadesofidaho
    shadesofidaho Posts: 485 Member
    Some people lose a lot faster on the low carb high fat verses low calorie low fat. I can starve myself on the Low Calorie Low fat and gain weight but I loose nicely on the low carb high fat. I set my own goals down to 1200. It had me at 1580 which is insane for me to lose weight. I try to keep under the 1200 and because the low carb high fat reduces your appetite some times I do not make it to 1000. then I just add misc calories to not get the you are going to fall over dead tomorrow if you do not eat all your calories massage. I do not pay attention to MFP predictions. I just use the logging as a tool for my information on how I am eating.
  • deksgrl
    deksgrl Posts: 7,237 Member
    If you are only trying to lose about 15 pounds, then half a pound to 1 pound is a more reasonable goal. 2 pounds per week loss is very aggressive, and difficult for anyone not needing to lose a whole bunch of weight. It is difficult to transition to maintenance, and once you return to eating "normal" again, you will gain it right back.
  • kyta32
    kyta32 Posts: 670 Member
    I've set MFP goals to sedentary. It started out saying I would lose 2 pounds a week with 1400 calories, and it is down to 1.7 pounds a week eating 1200 calories. I exercise and log my exercise.

    I find the daily predictions (in 5 weeks you will weigh) to be much more accurate than the goals one (generally within 3 pounds unless it is the day I do 2 hours of karate). Since July I've been losing 3-4 pounds a week, and that is around what the "in 5 weeks" prediction says. I save the prediction in the food notes for the day, otherwise it will update when you weigh in. Every night I check back 5 weeks to compare prediction with results.

    I think the exercise has been what is making the difference. As long as you exercise (or have active days, ie. a lot of housework, yardwork, or walking around being a tourist) you will lose more than the MFP goals prediction.

    Good luck :smile:
  • Mischievous_Rascal
    Mischievous_Rascal Posts: 1,791 Member
    jw92761 wrote: »
    I'm starting over and just took the guided "tour" to set up my calorie and fitness goals. I would like to lose 15 - 20 pounds. I selected working out 5 days a week for 45 minutes and that I wanted to lose 2 pounds a week. MFP is giving me a calorie goal of 1200 calories a day but it says I will only lose .07 pounds a week - or 3 pounds by February 3rd!!! Has anyone found that to be accurate? A couple of years ago I did low carb and lost about 8 pounds in a month - I was hoping to have that same kind of success with calorie counting....

    It's not accurate for me, but I'm in maintainence and I believe that a lot of it has to do with body composition. As to losing the eight pounds in a month, that would be about right for any diet, not only low carb, so I would hate to see you cut out an entire food group without a medical reason. Carbs are going to fuel those workouts of yours! Once you start with a daily calorie deficit, you'll deplete your gylcogen and won't need the water it's stored in - about 5 pounds on average. After this initial lose, tapering off to a slow and steady pace of 0.5-1 pound a week is awesome. (Trust me, it's easier to keep it off if you lose it slowly, and that's really the end game, right?)
  • jules92761
    jules92761 Posts: 55 Member
    Definitely right, Mischievous! I'm tired of doing this lose/gain thing over and over. And I don't much want to give up my carbs. :) I just have to keep long term in mind. If I can see good results early on it keeps me motivated.
  • jules92761
    jules92761 Posts: 55 Member
    Thanks for all the feedback! I do think that if I cut back on my carbs some it will help as I always get the message from MFP that I've gone over my carb and sugar goals, and I never get enough protein so I definitely need to balance that out some even if I don't go totally 'low carb.' The .07 was when I put in my stats and my goal - not the figure at the end of the day. I also noticed that the calorie burn seems a little high on MFP although it was pretty close to what Map My Walk said. My goal is not to eat back the exercise calories though. Thanks again all for the great feedback!
  • SnuggleSmacks
    SnuggleSmacks Posts: 3,731 Member
    Weight loss is simple math. Calories in - calories out = weight gain/loss. If you want to lose faster, decrease calories in or increase the calories out part of the equation.
  • jrline
    jrline Posts: 2,353 Member
    seemed to be accurate for me throughout my 100lbs journey
  • Sued0nim
    Sued0nim Posts: 17,456 Member
    Can be ... Roughly was for me ...but remember it's based on that daily food log and if you went the rest of the 5 weeks at exactly the same defecit
  • Csauskojus
    Csauskojus Posts: 17 Member
    kyta32 wrote: »
    I save the prediction in the food notes for the day, otherwise it will update when you weigh in. Every night I check back 5 weeks to compare prediction with results.

    Great tip! Thanks from a newbie!
  • kyta32
    kyta32 Posts: 670 Member
    jw92761 wrote: »
    Thanks for all the feedback! I do think that if I cut back on my carbs some it will help as I always get the message from MFP that I've gone over my carb and sugar goals, and I never get enough protein so I definitely need to balance that out some even if I don't go totally 'low carb.' The .07 was when I put in my stats and my goal - not the figure at the end of the day. I also noticed that the calorie burn seems a little high on MFP although it was pretty close to what Map My Walk said. My goal is not to eat back the exercise calories though. Thanks again all for the great feedback!

    Definitely try to get your protein in. Eating enough protein can help protect your lean mass when you are losing weight. I found the MFP protein guidelines were to low for me. A dietician suggested .8g per kilo body weight. I had a hard time getting enough protein, but now I have a serving of protein powder with greek yogurt instead of a chocolate pudding (all my treats seem to be carbs) and I've got my numbers mostly in line. Good luck :smile:
  • loulamb7
    loulamb7 Posts: 801 Member
    jw92761 wrote: »
    My goal is not to eat back the exercise calories though. Thanks again all for the great feedback!

    MFP's calculations and recommendations are based on eating back some/all of your exercise calories back. Otherwise you will be eating at a larger deficit and potentially less than 1200 calories a day. If you don't want to eat your exercise calories back than use another calculator, such as the TDEE or Scooby's calculator, to estimate your calorie requirements.

    Goal should be how much can you eat, not how little can you eat, to either lose or maintain the desired weight.

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