Why weight loss isn't always constant

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Spend long enough on MFP, and you'll hear people repeat the mantra: "weight loss isn't linear". It is very true, and often a form of frustration. So what is going on when you're doing everything right (you weight everything! No cups, actual weights! Etc!)?
I've found this diagram in the free online book The Hacker's Diet useful:
figure355.png
The author took it from a NASA conference of all things.
On any given day that you're trying to lose weight and monitor it on the scale, you're trying to track the loss of the .3 lb of solids and 2.2 lb of CO2 going out. Meanwhile, you've got 11 lb of water and how much of it is going in and out that trumps those 2.5 lb of actual weight loss. What you really want to monitor is the 19% of what is going out, but the very variable water is the other 81%. Yes, losing fat does mean losing some water permanently too (fat cells have an average of about 10% water weight).

Replies

  • zyxst
    zyxst Posts: 9,134 Member
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    I'd just like to know why I get weight loss the day after over eating and not consistently during the time I eat at a deficit.
  • nordlead2005
    nordlead2005 Posts: 1,303 Member
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    zyxst wrote: »
    I'd just like to know why I get weight loss the day after over eating and not consistently during the time I eat at a deficit.

    Obviously if you eat more you lose weight, and if you eat too little you go into starvation mode and will gain weight. I just had a ~800 calorie mud slide last night and lost 1.1lb this morning. It is going to be my new nightly ritual.
  • senecarr
    senecarr Posts: 5,377 Member
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    zyxst wrote: »
    I'd just like to know why I get weight loss the day after over eating and not consistently during the time I eat at a deficit.
    If you've been in a calorie deficit (for sure) and haven't lost weight, the other obvious thing to happen is retaining water. On the flip side, the days you finally lose scale weight after this would need to be composed of a fair amount of water. It could be cyclical and that your over day is happening at the same time you're losing water. It could be a matter that a high calorie day involves lowered stress, and stress usually activates water retaining mechanisms.
  • AspenDan
    AspenDan Posts: 703 Member
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    Hmmm, is it saying that drinking 9.2 units of water causes you to expell 11units of water? Sincere question here.
  • ncboiler89
    ncboiler89 Posts: 2,408 Member
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    zyxst wrote: »
    I'd just like to know why I get weight loss the day after over eating and not consistently during the time I eat at a deficit.

    Obviously if you eat more you lose weight, and if you eat too little you go into starvation mode and will gain weight.

    Obviously the second part of this sentence is false.
  • senecarr
    senecarr Posts: 5,377 Member
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    Hmmm, is it saying that drinking 9.2 units of water causes you to expell 11units of water? Sincere question here.
    No, the diagram is actually a representation of input and output of a typical person at maintenance, in terms of what needs to be managed to keep them alive on Mars - the diagram comes from NASA.
    Much of that 9.2 units of water wouldn't even be liquid water, but water in food.
    What is true is that in the long run, you expel more water than you take in. Turning carbohydrates (C6H12O6) or fats into energy involves breaking them into carbon dioxide (CO2) and water (H2O).
  • nordlead2005
    nordlead2005 Posts: 1,303 Member
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    ncboiler89 wrote: »
    zyxst wrote: »
    I'd just like to know why I get weight loss the day after over eating and not consistently during the time I eat at a deficit.

    Obviously if you eat more you lose weight, and if you eat too little you go into starvation mode and will gain weight.

    Obviously the second part of this sentence is false.

    I would hope that my second sentence would make that obvious :smile:
  • Verdenal
    Verdenal Posts: 625 Member
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    zyxst wrote: »
    I'd just like to know why I get weight loss the day after over eating and not consistently during the time I eat at a deficit.

    Obviously if you eat more you lose weight, and if you eat too little you go into starvation mode and will gain weight. I just had a ~800 calorie mud slide last night and lost 1.1lb this morning. It is going to be my new nightly ritual.

    Not only is it not obvious, it's wrong. You don't go into "starvation mode" if you under eat for a day or too, especially if you are overweight. It take months and months of eating VERY little for that to be even a possibility.

    The Myth of Starvation Mode

  • Bshmerlie
    Bshmerlie Posts: 1,026 Member
    edited September 2015
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    Yeah weight loss isn't exactly linear but it is pretty close if you adhere to your plan. If you look a graph of your weight loss over several months it pretty much makes a line downward. The little fluctuations don't make it off by that much really. It's not like you're bouncing up and down more that a couple of pounds either way. So when you make your graph of 100 pounds lost its going to look like a straight line......from a distance. :)
  • AspenDan
    AspenDan Posts: 703 Member
    edited September 2015
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    I tend to lose nothing one week, then lose 3-5 the next week..as if my body is like "wait, screw that I'm keeping this fat, it's mine...gah, dang it fine, you can take it..."
  • SLLRunner
    SLLRunner Posts: 12,943 Member
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    zyxst wrote: »
    I'd just like to know why I get weight loss the day after over eating and not consistently during the time I eat at a deficit.

    Obviously if you eat more you lose weight, and if you eat too little you go into starvation mode and will gain weight. I just had a ~800 calorie mud slide last night and lost 1.1lb this morning. It is going to be my new nightly ritual.
    Tongue in cheek? I don't know if you are joking or not.

    senecarr wrote: »
    Spend long enough on MFP, and you'll hear people repeat the mantra: "weight loss isn't linear". It is very true, and often a form of frustration. So what is going on when you're doing everything right (you weight everything! No cups, actual weights! Etc!)?
    I've found this diagram in the free online book The Hacker's Diet useful:
    figure355.png
    The author took it from a NASA conference of all things.
    On any given day that you're trying to lose weight and monitor it on the scale, you're trying to track the loss of the .3 lb of solids and 2.2 lb of CO2 going out. Meanwhile, you've got 11 lb of water and how much of it is going in and out that trumps those 2.5 lb of actual weight loss. What you really want to monitor is the 19% of what is going out, but the very variable water is the other 81%. Yes, losing fat does mean losing some water permanently too (fat cells have an average of about 10% water weight).

    Excellet post!
  • zyxst
    zyxst Posts: 9,134 Member
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    zyxst wrote: »
    I'd just like to know why I get weight loss the day after over eating and not consistently during the time I eat at a deficit.

    Obviously if you eat more you lose weight, and if you eat too little you go into starvation mode and will gain weight. I just had a ~800 calorie mud slide last night and lost 1.1lb this morning. It is going to be my new nightly ritual.

    The Mudslide & Peanut Butter Cookie Diet.
  • CattOfTheGarage
    CattOfTheGarage Posts: 2,750 Member
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    I think understanding water weight is crucial to controlling your weight without going crazy.

    Your body retains water for all sorts of reasons.

    Metabolising and storing carbs (I drop about 4lb of water weight when I go from a period of overeating to a deficit, just because of the reduction in carbs - and I don't do low carb!)

    Muscle repair (I put on 4-5lb after any big hill walk, long cycle or other unaccustomed heavy exercise. It hangs around for 2-3 days, them drops off again)

    Periods

    Illness


    And so on. As the OP says, you're trying to track small changes in body mass, say 1lb/week, but the amount of water you have on board varies by far more than that in a single day, so don't take any one weigh-in as Gospel - look for the trend over time.
  • HippySkoppy
    HippySkoppy Posts: 725 Member
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    senecarr wrote: »
    Spend long enough on MFP, and you'll hear people repeat the mantra: "weight loss isn't linear". It is very true, and often a form of frustration. So what is going on when you're doing everything right (you weight everything! No cups, actual weights! Etc!)?
    I've found this diagram in the free online book The Hacker's Diet useful:
    figure355.png
    The author took it from a NASA conference of all things.
    On any given day that you're trying to lose weight and monitor it on the scale, you're trying to track the loss of the .3 lb of solids and 2.2 lb of CO2 going out. Meanwhile, you've got 11 lb of water and how much of it is going in and out that trumps those 2.5 lb of actual weight loss. What you really want to monitor is the 19% of what is going out, but the very variable water is the other 81%. Yes, losing fat does mean losing some water permanently too (fat cells have an average of about 10% water weight).

    +1 On an Excellent Post <3

    This is very interesting and explains a lot.

  • kommodevaran
    kommodevaran Posts: 17,890 Member
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    I think understanding water weight is crucial to controlling your weight without going crazy.

    Your body retains water for all sorts of reasons.

    Metabolising and storing carbs (I drop about 4lb of water weight when I go from a period of overeating to a deficit, just because of the reduction in carbs - and I don't do low carb!)

    Muscle repair (I put on 4-5lb after any big hill walk, long cycle or other unaccustomed heavy exercise. It hangs around for 2-3 days, them drops off again)

    Periods

    Illness


    And so on. As the OP says, you're trying to track small changes in body mass, say 1lb/week, but the amount of water you have on board varies by far more than that in a single day, so don't take any one weigh-in as Gospel - look for the trend over time.

    I agree. That's why I think that modern body weight scales are too accurate for their purpose.
  • daniwilford
    daniwilford Posts: 1,030 Member
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    ncboiler89 wrote: »
    zyxst wrote: »
    I'd just like to know why I get weight loss the day after over eating and not consistently during the time I eat at a deficit.

    Obviously if you eat more you lose weight, and if you eat too little you go into starvation mode and will gain weight.

    Obviously the second part of this sentence is false.

    I would hope that my second sentence would make that obvious :smile:
    Verdenal wrote: »
    zyxst wrote: »
    I'd just like to know why I get weight loss the day after over eating and not consistently during the time I eat at a deficit.

    Obviously if you eat more you lose weight, and if you eat too little you go into starvation mode and will gain weight. I just had a ~800 calorie mud slide last night and lost 1.1lb this morning. It is going to be my new nightly ritual.

    Not only is it not obvious, it's wrong. You don't go into "starvation mode" if you under eat for a day or too, especially if you are overweight. It take months and months of eating VERY little for that to be even a possibility.

    The Myth of Starvation Mode
    Some people have no sense of humor.
  • KAWittler1970
    KAWittler1970 Posts: 74 Member
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    Thanks for the "food for though"
  • lorrpb
    lorrpb Posts: 11,464 Member
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    Bshmerlie wrote: »
    Yeah weight loss isn't exactly linear but it is pretty close if you adhere to your plan. If you look a graph of your weight loss over several months it pretty much makes a line downward. The little fluctuations don't make it off by that much really. It's not like you're bouncing up and down more that a couple of pounds either way. So when you make your graph of 100 pounds lost its going to look like a straight line......from a distance. :)

    Yes, this is true! Unfortunately too many people here expect a straight downward line with no bumps from day to day, some even hour to hour, so this is why we say "weight loss is not linear". :o
  • lynn_glenmont
    lynn_glenmont Posts: 9,964 Member
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    senecarr wrote: »
    The author took it from a NASA conference of all things.
    On any given day that you're trying to lose weight and monitor it on the scale, you're trying to track the loss of the .3 lb of solids and 2.2 lb of CO2 going out. Meanwhile, you've got 11 lb of water and how much of it is going in and out that trumps those 2.5 lb of actual weight loss. What you really want to monitor is the 19% of what is going out, but the very variable water is the other 81%. Yes, losing fat does mean losing some water permanently too (fat cells have an average of about 10% water weight).

    With all due respect, what you're trying to monitor when you're trying to lose weight is not the 19% (solids and CO2) from the diagram. The person in the diagram is at maintenance. When you weigh yourself while trying to lose weight, what you want to monitor is loss of body mass--fat, preferably, but unavoidably some LBM as well. Water, the amount of food/solids in your digestive system at any time, and the amount of CO2 in your body at any given instance (I think CO2 would have a greater specific gravity than air, but not 100% sure on that) are all irrelevant to what most people are trying to achieve--or at least should be trying to achieve--when they seek to "lose weight."
  • senecarr
    senecarr Posts: 5,377 Member
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    senecarr wrote: »
    The author took it from a NASA conference of all things.
    On any given day that you're trying to lose weight and monitor it on the scale, you're trying to track the loss of the .3 lb of solids and 2.2 lb of CO2 going out. Meanwhile, you've got 11 lb of water and how much of it is going in and out that trumps those 2.5 lb of actual weight loss. What you really want to monitor is the 19% of what is going out, but the very variable water is the other 81%. Yes, losing fat does mean losing some water permanently too (fat cells have an average of about 10% water weight).

    With all due respect, what you're trying to monitor when you're trying to lose weight is not the 19% (solids and CO2) from the diagram. The person in the diagram is at maintenance. When you weigh yourself while trying to lose weight, what you want to monitor is loss of body mass--fat, preferably, but unavoidably some LBM as well. Water, the amount of food/solids in your digestive system at any time, and the amount of CO2 in your body at any given instance (I think CO2 would have a greater specific gravity than air, but not 100% sure on that) are all irrelevant to what most people are trying to achieve--or at least should be trying to achieve--when they seek to "lose weight."
    The solids going out and CO2 represent part of the fat and some of the lean tissue loss. Fat cells are about 10%, about 90% lipids / fatty acids - breaking those down results in CO2. The water out would also account for part of the fat molecules are lost.
    To be most accurate, the problem is the flux in water as released and retained due to hormones, salts, and other conditions is still dramatically large in comparison to the flux in fat changed to CO2 and water.
    Ideally, you'd want a device that would give you your lean body mass, fat mass, and water weight as some device claim they'll give you, but none of the home ones are particularly accurate. Even professional DEXA scans aren't accurate enough to measure daily fluxes in those things.