Is MFP accurate with the estimated weight?

rlprice1231

Hey everyone! I'm new to this app and I just have one quick question. When you finish your entry for the day and it pops up with a message saying "if everyday were like this you'd weight blah blah blah in 5 weeks". Even though I know that is an estimated guess, is that estimated guess pretty accurate? Just wondering thanks!!!

echmainfit619

No, ignore that screen. It's useless. There's no need to close out each day.

clynnrychly

Not accurate at all. But it is fun to see as a bit of motivation at the end of the day imo when you've been good.

rosebarnalice

I tracked my calories, macros, actual weight, and "5 week estimated weight" in a spreadsheet scrupulously for 3 months (12 weeks.) I weighed once a week, and for consistency, averaged the daily projected weight each week, and compared my actual weight with the projected averages for the last 7 of the 12 weeks. I found that MFP overprojected my weight loss by, on average, about .5 lbs per week.

I suspect that the difference is between my actual TDEE (total daily energy expenditure) and the estimate that MFP uses based on my height, weight, and age.

Liftng4Lis

I've never had it correct.

Ready2Rock206

Not even the slightest bit accurate for me.

cwolfman13

i found it to be fairly accurate (not exact) when i was consistent and being as accurate as possible...the less consistent I was, the less accurate the projection was. by consistency I mean consistently hitting your calorie targets regardless of whether it's a Saturday evening or a Tuesday evening.

it's also going to depend on the accuracy of your inputs to start with...as well as accuracy of you logging...accuracy in exercise burn estimations, etc...

essentially, there are a lot of variables that need to line up and it's really easy for one or more of them to get mucked up one way or another.

Asher_Ethan

In the beginning it was pretty accurate for me. But now, not even in the slightest.

Kalikel

A few people say they lose exactly what it says they will, but for most of us, it's not accurate.

I'm not slamming the app - it's just a computer doing math and spitting out numbers.

StaciMarie1974

If your logging and activity level and workout calories burned are accurate, and your body behaves perfectly, yes. But truthfully there are too many variables. If you weigh less in 30 days than you do now, you're on the right track.

rlprice1231 wrote: »

Hey everyone! I'm new to this app and I just have one quick question. When you finish your entry for the day and it pops up with a message saying "if everyday were like this you'd weight blah blah blah in 5 weeks". Even though I know that is an estimated guess, is that estimated guess pretty accurate? Just wondering thanks!!!

lorrpb

It's an accurate statement "If every day were like today, in 5 weeks you will weigh x" and the math they use to get it is correct. HOWEVER, every day is not "like today". Even consistent people do not eat exactly the same cals and burn exactly they same amount every day for 5 weeks. That is why the number changes every day and why you might not see that EXACT number in 5 weeks. Like any statistic, you need to understand what you're reading.

Merkavar

If every day is the same as today it might be accurate.

But I have days where it says I will lose a kilo+ a week and others it says half a kilo.

It really should form an average of the past 7 days, increasing its accuracy a bit. Instead of basing it on one day.

Unknown

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sunandmoons

Not for me. I dont eat the same thing every day at the same time nor do I exercise everyday.

dhimaan

It was accurate for me. I dropped more than the number suggested so I increased my calories.

Machka9

rlprice1231 wrote: »

Hey everyone! I'm new to this app and I just have one quick question. When you finish your entry for the day and it pops up with a message saying "if everyday were like this you'd weight blah blah blah in 5 weeks". Even though I know that is an estimated guess, is that estimated guess pretty accurate? Just wondering thanks!!!

It's a calculation based on your weight and your calorie deficit that day. If your calorie deficit is slightly different tomorrow, it will show you a different number.

Generally I find it estimates low. I have, on occasion, noted down the number it suggests I might be in 5 weeks on my calendar, and pretty much every time, I hit that weight about 2 weeks before the suggested time, and I've gone on to lose an additional 1-2 kg by then.

For fun, you could mark it on your calendar and see how close it is for you.


That said, I do find it motivating. After I hit my first goal, I thought I might stop there, but that little message suggested I could be a weight I hadn't seen since about 2008. And that got me to thinking ... maybe I could achieve that! So I did! Now it's suggesting a weight I haven't seen since 2003.

fawlty70

If you input the calories and workouts slavishly and exactly, I've found it's fairly accurate. By that I mean, enter every chewing gum you have, every half slice of cheese and teaspoon of peanut butter you grab when you make a sandwich for your kid, etc. Literally everything. When I've done that, I've lost very close to what I am estimated to lose per week.
Otherwise, not really.

daniwilford

I ignore this statement, because I will never have 5 days that are exactly like today let alone 5 weeks of days.

fawlty70

daniwilford wrote: »

I ignore this statement, because I will never have 5 days that are exactly like today let alone 5 weeks of days.

It does seem fairly useless, doesn't it? I don't really understand the point of it, or of the wording.

echmainfit619

It could have been much more useful if the programmers had done some sort of trend analysis based on the previous 5 weeks (or something like that).

Instead they do a 5 week projection based on *one* data point. Laughable.

Merkavar

echmainfit619 wrote: »

It could have been much more useful if the programmers had done some sort of trend analysis based on the previous 5 weeks (or something like that).

Instead they do a 5 week projection based on *one* data point. Laughable.

Hint hint mfp hint hint cough potential premium feature cough

Cahgetsfit

not at all accurate for me either - I'd have reached my goal and beyond!

yarwell

rlprice1231 wrote: »

Hey everyone! I'm new to this app and I just have one quick question. When you finish your entry for the day and it pops up with a message saying "if everyday were like this you'd weight blah blah blah in 5 weeks". Even though I know that is an estimated guess, is that estimated guess pretty accurate? Just wondering thanks!!!

It is beyond useless.

kuroshii

Closing out the day posts a thing on your wall for MFP-friends to see, telling them that you logged your meals for that day. If you came in "under," it mentions that too. It doesn't mention it if you went over. You might like having that, you might not. The five-week-out estimate is meant to be motivational like a pat on the back at the end of your day, but as you've seen from these comments it's generally ignore-able otherwise.

tomteboda

So today MFP told me that if every day was like today I'd weigh 196 (currently 214) in 5 weeks. I laughed until I cried. Given my experience over the past 11 months, I estimate that it should take me about 4 months to lose 18 lbs. But it does make me smile to see the "future fantasy weight" (how I think of it) continuing to decrease as well.