Projecting exercise calories burned in weight loss

EDollah

I realize I have a flaw in the weight projection I've created. I don't account for the decrease in calories burned as weight decreases.

I have a good idea of how many calories I burn now but I'm not sure what that burn will be when I'm 25 pounds lighter.

Here's what I'm thinking:

RMR(0) = RMR now
RMR(x) = RMR at some future time
CB(0) = Calorie burn now from exercise
CB(x) = Calorie burn at the same future time as RMR(x)

I'm thinking that

CB(x) = CB(0) * RMR(x) / RMR(0)

To use an illustration, let's say I want to figure out exercise calories burned 50 days from now
RMR(0) = 2939
RMR(50) = 2824
CB(0) = 500

So
CB(50) = 500 * 2824 / 2939 = 480

Does that seem like a good approximation or what would make a better adjustment factor?

Note - I realize there are other factors involved, such as an increasing capacity to do more work that could, to some degree, offset the decrease. For this purpose let's just assume everything else is equal.

BigGuy47

you're over thinking it. eat at a deficit and see what happens in a month. make adjustments if necessary.

EDollah

Thanks for... nothing I guess. I've been at this for not qutie 3 months and lost 35+ pounds (see ticker below) so I've been eating at a deficit and seeing what happens in a month. I'm trying to project what will happen in 2 months, 3 months, 5 months.

BigGuy47

good job on the 35lb loss and good luck with coming up with a perfect formula for projecting weight loss.

rocket_ace

all the calculations are just approximations and educated guessing - you need to temper w/ real world effects for your specific body and ignore or follow the numbers from time to time. plenty of papers out there w/ even more detailed number crunching which maybe one of the others here can provide - but I guarantee you it will just be next to useless when compared to the power of using your own gut to better fit your practice once you have the basic theory and numbers down (which you do).