Trend weight making me crazy

sky_northern

(Actually no more crazy than usual)

I started using trandweight just over a week ago. My goal is to lose 2lbs a week and it says I'm failing and need to cut my calories more. My weight this Sunday is down more than 2lbs from last Sunday.

It has been a weird week because of some birthdays (and an extremely salty meal Tuesday, hence the number on Wednesday.
What's driving me crazy is TW seems to be putting more emphasis on the up numbers early this week than the down numbers on both sides. Should I cut more this week or just give it another week to see if it works itself out?


I'll try to add scene shots but have to figure out how to do that on the app.

sky_northern

Hopefully this works

sky_northern

See says I need to cut 277 calls a day

macgurlnet

You need to have at least 4 weeks of data for trendweight to be really useful.

Stick with what you're doing for that long & see what the overall trend looks like then. Odds are it will be much closer to what you're aiming for.

~Lyssa

EvgeniZyntx

When you let a poorly programmed app govern your life... you go crazy. Clearly a weighted trend average would be better given the gap on the last days.

meritage4

You lost 1.7 lbs. Keep doing what is working. Do not cut more calories yet.

strong_curves

You need more than 1 week of data, ideally a month, before you start changing anything imo.

sky_northern

Thanks for the imput, I'll keep at it.

I don't math well but you know, if you put a 'trendline' on a graph in excel it makes a line with some points above and some below. That's the part that's making me crazy, my points are below then when I get 3 above points, it adjust the whole line! Maybe I need to use excel to graph it.

WalkingAlong

He's using some weighted 20-day average from the Hacker's Diet, not just a straight, short-term moving average. So either older or more recent points count more. I don't know the exact formula but I do use TW. And at first I was confused, too. Give it a month and it'll be better, like everyone said.

And nice job! Losing 2 lbs a week is tough. Don't bother adjusting your diet yet, though. You lost 2 on an 'actual' basis. If you keep doing that, I think the trend weight will show it.

Edited to add: Here's a blogger explaining the calc:
http://capmblade1.blogspot.com/2007/12/hackers-diet-examining-trend-line.html

This excerpt from The Hacker's Diet kind of gets into it, too. Hit Prev or Next to read more.
https://www.fourmilab.ch/hackdiet/www/subsubsection1_2_4_0_5_1.html

Sued0nim

Trend weight is a trend tracker, a week isn't a trend

What you see in a short time changes dramatically when you pull back to a decent timeframe...eg the 2 months

I could show you my charts if you want, but I'm pretty sure people are bored of seeing them

nordlead2005

EvgeniZyntx wrote: »

When you let a poorly programmed app govern your life... you go crazy. Clearly a weighted trend average would be better given the gap on the last days.

Trendweight is a weighted trend. A 20-day weighted average based on the hackers diet. If you look at the data you'll see that the trend weight dropped by 0.2, 0.4, and then 0.5lb over the last 3 days as the weight decreased.

If we wanted trendweight to more quickly reflect changes in weight then we would use a shorter look back, like 15, 10, or 5 days.

Anyways, OP doesn't even have 20 days of data. There is a very good chance that the scale readings over the next day or so bounce back closer to the trend line and this latest reading is unusually low. Regardless of the case, trendweight will catch up over the next couple days and will reflect the recent average weight loss rate.

I would just keep doing what you are doing for another 1-2 weeks and see what happens. Just be mindful that it can take a week for trend weight to accurately reflect the current trend.

As an example, if trend weight says I'm losing 2lb/wk and I decide to switch to a 1lb/wk deficit trend weight will still say 2lb/week for at least a day or so before it drops to 1.8lb/wk, then 1.6lb/wk and so on.

WalkingAlong

Just to prepare you, by the calc's nature, when you're losing, your chart will always show more actual points under the trend line than above it (and vice versa).

nordlead2005

This page on the hackers diet goes into trend lines and how to apply the data - https://www.fourmilab.ch/hackdiet/e4/signalnoise.html

and from the page

As long as the moving average is roughly straight, the weekly weight and daily calorie figures can be relied upon. If there's a major change in trend during the month, you're better off basing your actions on the most recent direction of the trend rather than longer term values that don't account for a kink in the curve.

AnnPT77

And to add to the "don't worry" chorus: My birthday was in mid-November, then (U.S.) Thanksgiving, then the Christmas holidays. Even though I'd been tracking for months, my weight-trending app (Libra) decided based on the water-weight weirdness (and little or no actual gain) that I was variously gaining or maintaining, and it stayed convinced of that for a while.

Since I'd been logging my eating meticulously for several months by then, I knew it was wrong. And my scale readings made a decent-sized downward jog right after the holidays, as I'd expected, and the app calmed down again.

It's a tool. It does statistical analysis. It's not a magic crystal ball.

In your case, even your app "knows" you're losing, it may just not have a good loss rate yet. Patience!

NikkiMichelleS

sky_northern wrote: »

I agree with everything else that's been said.
Give it more time
Don't put too much credence into one app for your overall health goals.

Also, based on this single set of data points above, the ten-day period from 1/21-1/31 you've posted. This indicates you've lost seven - SEVEN - 7 pounds over the last 10 days. That's incredible & pretty great to get started. Why would you doubt your current targets aren't working? They clearly are for weight loss. Because the app doesn't agree you'll reach the target date? Crap.
(Of course, that being said, again you shouldn't just put all focus into the scale and/or trendweight apps)

You're doing well, just give it time. Good luck!

sky_northern

NikkiMichelleS wrote: »

sky_northern wrote: »

I agree with everything else that's been said.
Give it more time
Don't put too much credence into one app for your overall health goals.

Also, based on this single set of data points above, the ten-day period from 1/21-1/31 you've posted. This indicates you've lost seven - SEVEN - 7 pounds over the last 10 days. That's incredible & pretty great to get started. Why would you doubt your current targets aren't working? They clearly are for weight loss. Because the app doesn't agree you'll reach the target date? Crap.
(Of course, that being said, again you shouldn't just put all focus into the scale and/or trendweight apps)

You're doing well, just give it time. Good luck!

Yes, just going by my weigh 10 days ago and today - 7 lbs but trendweight is telling me I lost 1.7. That was what was annoying. But I am just being impatient and not gathering enough data for it, by what everyone is telling me (and I believe them.)

sky_northern

Thanks everyone for your input.

And thanks nordlead2005 for bursting my bubble by saying I'll probably end up back near my trend line soon, lol.

sky_northern

And, while I have you all here, can I ask-
Is it going to to screw TW all up if there are regular period where I can't weigh every day?
I travel a lot for work, usually 3 to 5 days I'll be gone. I have two trips in February planned already where i won't be able to weigh for 4 days each.

WalkingAlong

No, it'll be fine. When I started with it, it brought in many months of weekly weigh-ins from Fitbit.

By the way, the chart of that data, which is all downhill, the trendline is above the 'actual' weight line the entire span. It's weird when you're used to more intuitive moving averages, I agree.

sky_northern

WalkingAlong wrote: »

No, it'll be fine. When I started with it, it brought in many months of weekly weigh-ins from Fitbit.

By the way, the chart of that data, which is all downhill, the trendline is above the 'actual' weight line the entire span. It's weird when you're used to more intuitive moving averages, I agree.

Ok, cool. Thanks