Weight gain? plateau? or muscle gain?

Since last Thursday (6/27) I haven't lost any weight. Today I weighed myself (like I always do..after the bathroom and before getting dressed.) I gained 1lb (I weigh myself everyday. addicted to the scaled. I only record Thursdays weight though.)

I know people say not to listen to the scale and just look at pictures. Well I can't see any change in the pictures (people keep saying I look good and stuff like "oh you lost weight!" but I can't see it.)

So what this post is about is...do you think that the 1lb gain is because:
1. just gained weight (I was eating 1600 cals now 1500cals)
2. The reason I'm not losing and I gained that 1.5 is because I've hit my Plateau?
3. Could it be muscle gain? (I've been doing 10 to 20 squats a day, also I do 30 arm raises, 30 minutes cardio (just dance) and Mon, wed, and Thurs I walk two miles.)

Also, I'm down 35lbs (besides the 1lb) and I want to lose another 15 by august 23rd. Is that possible? Should I do cardio for longer? I'm a 22 year old female (if that helps)


Thank you to everyone who has/is helping me :D