Correlation, Causation and County Maps

jgnatca

I'm diverting a conversations started elsewhere on the possible connection between the way we live and obesity/poor health. Is it diet, lifestyle? By comparing state county maps, can we see large scale patterns emerge? I'm picking on Texas mostly because it does pop out on a few maps. Like obesity and income inequality.

jgnatca

A weird map on what takeout Americans order most.


I found this because of an argument that vegetarians live longer healthier lives based on nearly every marker. I figured some parts of the US have more vegetarians than others.

jgnatca

Here's an obesity map.

@lemurcat12 brought up an article that suggested that respondents in Northern states are less honest than their southern cousins about their weight, so that this map may be skewed.

So I did a little more digging. Here's more information on the self-reporting BRFSS survey.
http://www.cdc.gov/brfss/annual_data/annual_2012.html

And a 2006 study that compared self-reporting to actual weights. A diagram from that study:

Trends in national and state-level obesity in the USA after correction for self-report bias:

jgnatca

Texas still has to worry. So I thought it might be handy to drill down in to Texas a little further. Here's a health map, multiple factors. The darker the county, the deeper the problem.

jgnatca

@senecarr suggested that a sedentary lifestyle and population density are related to obesity. So I pulled a population density map.



It appears the rural southwest is in much deeper trouble, and population density is not their problem.

I also suggest that not all dense urban areas are un-walkable. Manhattan is highly walkable.

jgnatca

Now, income inequality and poverty are risk factors for a bunch of social indicators, including teen pregnancy (again, Texas is a leader).


Now here, the dark areas of the map roughly correlate to the health risk factors. Big surprise.

auddii

jgnatca wrote: »

A weird map on what takeout Americans order most.


I found this because of an argument that vegetarians live longer healthier lives based on nearly every marker. I figured some parts of the US have more vegetarians than others.

Cinnamon in Alaska? Definitely a weird map.

lemurcat12

Thanks!

Here's a link to all states with information down to the county level. I am not successfully able to copy the images now: http://www.countyhealthrankings.org/app/illinois/2015/measure/factors/11/map

My county (Cook, so mostly urban) does better than I expected, but it would be interesting to see it broken down into smaller pieces. There are lots of very poor people in this county.

I'll also look more closely at the counties in my state with the worst results when I have a few minutes.

jgnatca

Thanks for the link, @lemurcat12 sticking with Texas, I see that "Access to exercise opportunities" is not directly related to the counties with the most obese (east Texas).

Kimberly_Harper

Holy crap that's a big change in obesity percentage in a matter of 10 years!

jgnatca

Which is why obesity has become a national and international concern, an "epidemic".

http://www.cdc.gov/obesity/

zyxst

I live on an island that has to (mostly) rely on ferry service for most foods. When the weather is bad enough that the ferries don't run, the grocery shelves get mighty empty after 2 days, but at least I can buy yellow bananas.

lemurcat12

Worst Illinois counties are Adams, Vermilion, and Fayette, Marion, Jefferson, Williamson, Massac (those last 5 are basically the South, frankly). Pretty rural on average.

jgnatca

lemurcat12 wrote: »

Worst Illinois counties are Adams, Vermilion, and Fayette, Marion, Jefferson, Williamson, Massac (those last 5 are basically the South, frankly). Pretty rural on average.

I don't wonder if the problem might be access to resources, opportunities, education.

lemurcat12

jgnatca wrote: »

@jmbmilholland here's a racial dot map of texas.


http://demographics.coopercenter.org/DotMap/

My Canadian sensibilities are tingling. We'd more likely call this ethnic origin here in Canada. And I'd rather look at poverty as being a factor rather than bone structure. Because "race" really, isn't more than skin deep is it? (Other than such things as sickle cell anemia).

From this map I've got to say that Dallas and Houston are rainbows. Does this indicate a cosmopolitan society or dense communities side by each?

We know that there's a correlation between race and obesity in the US. (Not saying it's a causal factor, obviously.)

http://stateofobesity.org/disparities/

"Among U.S. adults, Black and Latino populations have substantially higher rates of obesity than do White populations. This is true among both men and women."

I think that may be important for understanding the TX stats (although I am not familiar enough with TX demographics or geography to be certain).

French_Peasant

@jgnatca regarding my response on the other thread regarding "metro areas," I noticed that there is a huge difference in the colors in the screenshot you posted, vs. what you see when you go into the actual tool. So my comments were on the screenshot that was posted. The live tool tells a different story.

stealthq

lemurcat12 wrote: »

jgnatca wrote: »

@jmbmilholland here's a racial dot map of texas.


http://demographics.coopercenter.org/DotMap/

My Canadian sensibilities are tingling. We'd more likely call this ethnic origin here in Canada. And I'd rather look at poverty as being a factor rather than bone structure. Because "race" really, isn't more than skin deep is it? (Other than such things as sickle cell anemia).

From this map I've got to say that Dallas and Houston are rainbows. Does this indicate a cosmopolitan society or dense communities side by each?

We know that there's a correlation between race and obesity in the US. (Not saying it's a causal factor, obviously.)

http://stateofobesity.org/disparities/

"Among U.S. adults, Black and Latino populations have substantially higher rates of obesity than do White populations. This is true among both men and women."

I think that may be important for understanding the TX stats (although I am not familiar enough with TX demographics or geography to be certain).

You can also bank on hispanics in the southwest of Texas being more 'connected' with Mexico and parts south. Lots of back and forth across the border there, and that's reflected in the nearest cities. Also, don't forget the flourishing drug trafficking trade along that border. I'd expect that to reflect in the health factors map at the least.

Also, re: "From this map I've got to say that Dallas and Houston are rainbows. Does this indicate a cosmopolitan society or dense communities side by each?" - both. In the middle income and up areas the ethnicities are pretty evenly distributed. Still majority white, but there's not clear separations of one ethnicity or the other (exception for one area I know of with a very high concentration of Jews, but that's based on religion and a desire to be able to walk to synagogue, etc).

The poorer areas are tight enclaves of each of the ethnicities that pretty much exclude all others. Most of these are enclaves of fairly recent immigrants (within the last couple of generations) and their descendants. They are slammed up against the higher income areas.

senecarr

jgnatca wrote: »

@senecarr suggested that a sedentary lifestyle and population density are related to obesity. So I pulled a population density map.



It appears the rural southwest is in much deeper trouble, and population density is not their problem.

I also suggest that not all dense urban areas are un-walkable. Manhattan is highly walkable.

Whether walkable or not, if the area is dense, people will need to make use of parking structure and walk to and from that to their location instead of parking in the lot at their location.
My comment was more aimed at California and the East Coast locations.

senecarr

It was suggested in the other thread that race might be a proxy for poverty, and that saying race may be a factor independent of ancestry might not be a concern.

I think that is a bit of white-washing of racial issues. Regardless of origin and genetics or income, being a minority is an increased stress on individuals and leads to different treatment in the USA. Much of this can lead towards worse health outcomes, increased rates of obesity.

jgnatca

Ah, yes @senecarr I can get behind the possibility of different treatment, coming from a visible minority, different treatment, and the stresses around that. In Canada we have a poor record on how we treated the native populations.

jgnatca

Let's take a look at California then, which overall does better than a good part of the US.


Compared against population density:


And walkability:


The cities still come out smelling like roses.

Now, getting back to Texas, @stealthq does mention that some communities are insular and jammed up right beside a contrasting wealthy district. The "rainbow" I was seeing on the race map. I know from my understanding of income inequality, that the wider the gap, the greater the destabilisation of the community. It's like, seeing how the "other side" lives on a daily basis, is hard on people.

@jmbmilholland if we are talking apples and oranges, then show me your orange.

jgnatca

On reflection @lemurcat12 I believe the story may be at a more granular level, say Postal Code. As you describe, how are the very poor faring inside the larger community?

lemurcat12

What does access to exercise opportunities mean? (It doesn't seem to be strongly correlated with the results in IL, for the record.)

The worst Illinois counties are rural and largely white. However, the problem is arguably worse among the minority population in Chicago and other cities, although Cook County as a whole is one of the better counties (also decent public transportation, reasonably walkable in the city, really pro biking, although also less than great weather).

I can't find a map, but there are discussions I've found of the differences in the obesity rate neighborhood to neighborhood and it's consistent with my own observations.

jgnatca

lemurcat12 wrote: »

What does access to exercise opportunities mean? (It doesn't seem to be strongly correlated with the results in IL, for the record.)

It appears the county maps are using the BRFSS which asks respondents questions on how much activity they've had recently.

http://www.cdc.gov/brfss/pdf/PA RotatingCore_BRFSSGuide_508Comp_07252013FINAL.pdf

lemurcat12

I actually wonder if part of the issue is age -- that might fit the counties in my state, if the population is older (as I bet it is), and suggest that focusing on the differences between counties might not be that informative.

French_Peasant

jgnatca wrote: »

Let's take a look at California then, which overall does better than a good part of the US.


The cities still come out smelling like roses.

Now, getting back to Texas, @stealthq does mention that some communities are insular and jammed up right beside a contrasting wealthy district. The "rainbow" I was seeing on the race map. I know from my understanding of income inequality, that the wider the gap, the greater the destabilisation of the community. It's like, seeing how the "other side" lives on a daily basis, is hard on people.

@jmbmilholland if we are talking apples and oranges, then show me your orange.

I just didn't catch until I had the chance to look more closely, that what you originally posted for Texas (in blue) was ALL the health factors, but what lemurcat linked to was specifically obesity. I thought your original post was for obesity too, then was confused when I realized the county that contains San Antonio (BEX) seems to have good health factors, but is poor when it comes to adult obesity. I'm not sure how to capture that image, but here is a link:

http://www.countyhealthrankings.org/app/texas/2015/measure/factors/11/map

I was confused by all the different colors, plus I was working out on an arc trainer, so didn't pick up the fine details.

senecarr

I'll also throw out the tidbit for Colorado - it has usually been the lowest in obesity rates for the nation and was the last state to keep under 20% until 2011. The reason typically given is that with most of the population living in Denver, 2 out 3 people in Colorado live with daily elevation training. Perhaps we just need to apply for a grant to give elevation training masks out in all the other states?

French_Peasant

jgnatca wrote: »

Ah, yes @senecarr I can get behind the possibility of different treatment, coming from a visible minority, different treatment, and the stresses around that. In Canada we have a poor record on how we treated the native populations.

I've been thinking through your race vs. ethnic origin question, and I have come to the conclusion that my mind is not smart enough to handle it, because they seem to blur into each other and both change with changing cultural constructions and attitudes, whether scientifically defined as with race or community defined as with ethnic origin. Ugh! It's especially challenging when you look at the so-called "Hispanic" demographic; for example, to take two examples where the Hispanic demographic is by far the most dominant, the Texas county Hidalgo is on the heavy end of the spectrum (34% obese), while Miami-Dade is on the light end of the spectrum (21% obese). Miami Dade has a large Cuban population and probably many other Hispanic groups; I am guessing Hidalgo is primarily Mexican. Hispanics from all countries can range from Caucasian to African to Native American (which might be lumped in with Asians...?). How does a demographer even tease through that? Racially, a Hispanic could be the same as a "white" or a "black" but ethnic origin, which encompasses culture, there are huge differences.

At any rate, looking at Indiana, the two heaviest counties are very rural, somewhat hilly, in the southern part of the state--with a culture/ethnic origin that is comparable to Appalachian areas. And of course a very poor, slandered ("hillbilly"), mistreated demographic. Fun fact: John Mellancamp's "Small Town" is about Seymour, Indiana, which is in the heaviest Indiana county. Of course, then you also have one of the two thinnest Indiana counties located in the hilly south, Monroe, which encompasses Bloomington and Indiana University.

jgnatca

jmbmilholland wrote: »

jgnatca wrote: »

Let's take a look at California then, which overall does better than a good part of the US.


The cities still come out smelling like roses.

Now, getting back to Texas, @stealthq does mention that some communities are insular and jammed up right beside a contrasting wealthy district. The "rainbow" I was seeing on the race map. I know from my understanding of income inequality, that the wider the gap, the greater the destabilisation of the community. It's like, seeing how the "other side" lives on a daily basis, is hard on people.

@jmbmilholland if we are talking apples and oranges, then show me your orange.

I just didn't catch until I had the chance to look more closely, that what you originally posted for Texas (in blue) was ALL the health factors, but what lemurcat linked to was specifically obesity. I thought your original post was for obesity too, then was confused when I realized the county that contains San Antonio (BEX) seems to have good health factors, but is poor when it comes to adult obesity. I'm not sure how to capture that image, but here is a link:

http://www.countyhealthrankings.org/app/texas/2015/measure/factors/11/map

I was confused by all the different colors, plus I was working out on an arc trainer, so didn't pick up the fine details.

Healthy but obese. Like Santa Claus?

jgnatca

senecarr wrote: »

I'll also throw out the tidbit for Colorado - it has usually been the lowest in obesity rates for the nation and was the last state to keep under 20% until 2011. The reason typically given is that with most of the population living in Denver, 2 out 3 people in Colorado live with daily elevation training. Perhaps we just need to apply for a grant to give elevation training masks out in all the other states?

Funny; I spent two years in a small town at 4,000 feet. I was warned - and I did feel it - elevation fatigue for the first six months or so. It was also common for people to put on a few pounds after arriving. And I met a senior whose health condition prevented him from staying in a town that high. He had to get to lower ground.

jgnatca

It's about time I paid attention to @lemurcat12 's home turf, don't you think?