Correlation, Causation and County Maps

jgnatca

I'm diverting a conversations started elsewhere on the possible connection between the way we live and obesity/poor health. Is it diet, lifestyle? By comparing state county maps, can we see large scale patterns emerge? I'm picking on Texas mostly because it does pop out on a few maps. Like obesity and income inequality.

jgnatca

A weird map on what takeout Americans order most.


I found this because of an argument that vegetarians live longer healthier lives based on nearly every marker. I figured some parts of the US have more vegetarians than others.

jgnatca

Here's an obesity map.

@lemurcat12 brought up an article that suggested that respondents in Northern states are less honest than their southern cousins about their weight, so that this map may be skewed.

So I did a little more digging. Here's more information on the self-reporting BRFSS survey.
http://www.cdc.gov/brfss/annual_data/annual_2012.html

And a 2006 study that compared self-reporting to actual weights. A diagram from that study:

Trends in national and state-level obesity in the USA after correction for self-report bias:

jgnatca

Texas still has to worry. So I thought it might be handy to drill down in to Texas a little further. Here's a health map, multiple factors. The darker the county, the deeper the problem.

jgnatca

@senecarr suggested that a sedentary lifestyle and population density are related to obesity. So I pulled a population density map.



It appears the rural southwest is in much deeper trouble, and population density is not their problem.

I also suggest that not all dense urban areas are un-walkable. Manhattan is highly walkable.

jgnatca

Now, income inequality and poverty are risk factors for a bunch of social indicators, including teen pregnancy (again, Texas is a leader).


Now here, the dark areas of the map roughly correlate to the health risk factors. Big surprise.

auddii

jgnatca wrote: »

A weird map on what takeout Americans order most.


I found this because of an argument that vegetarians live longer healthier lives based on nearly every marker. I figured some parts of the US have more vegetarians than others.

Cinnamon in Alaska? Definitely a weird map.

lemurcat12

Thanks!

Here's a link to all states with information down to the county level. I am not successfully able to copy the images now: http://www.countyhealthrankings.org/app/illinois/2015/measure/factors/11/map

My county (Cook, so mostly urban) does better than I expected, but it would be interesting to see it broken down into smaller pieces. There are lots of very poor people in this county.

I'll also look more closely at the counties in my state with the worst results when I have a few minutes.

jgnatca

Thanks for the link, @lemurcat12 sticking with Texas, I see that "Access to exercise opportunities" is not directly related to the counties with the most obese (east Texas).

Kimberly_Harper

Holy crap that's a big change in obesity percentage in a matter of 10 years!

jgnatca

Which is why obesity has become a national and international concern, an "epidemic".

http://www.cdc.gov/obesity/

zyxst

I live on an island that has to (mostly) rely on ferry service for most foods. When the weather is bad enough that the ferries don't run, the grocery shelves get mighty empty after 2 days, but at least I can buy yellow bananas.

lemurcat12

Worst Illinois counties are Adams, Vermilion, and Fayette, Marion, Jefferson, Williamson, Massac (those last 5 are basically the South, frankly). Pretty rural on average.

jgnatca

lemurcat12 wrote: »

Worst Illinois counties are Adams, Vermilion, and Fayette, Marion, Jefferson, Williamson, Massac (those last 5 are basically the South, frankly). Pretty rural on average.

I don't wonder if the problem might be access to resources, opportunities, education.

lemurcat12

jgnatca wrote: »

@jmbmilholland here's a racial dot map of texas.


http://demographics.coopercenter.org/DotMap/

My Canadian sensibilities are tingling. We'd more likely call this ethnic origin here in Canada. And I'd rather look at poverty as being a factor rather than bone structure. Because "race" really, isn't more than skin deep is it? (Other than such things as sickle cell anemia).

From this map I've got to say that Dallas and Houston are rainbows. Does this indicate a cosmopolitan society or dense communities side by each?

We know that there's a correlation between race and obesity in the US. (Not saying it's a causal factor, obviously.)

http://stateofobesity.org/disparities/

"Among U.S. adults, Black and Latino populations have substantially higher rates of obesity than do White populations. This is true among both men and women."

I think that may be important for understanding the TX stats (although I am not familiar enough with TX demographics or geography to be certain).

French_Peasant

@jgnatca regarding my response on the other thread regarding "metro areas," I noticed that there is a huge difference in the colors in the screenshot you posted, vs. what you see when you go into the actual tool. So my comments were on the screenshot that was posted. The live tool tells a different story.

stealthq

lemurcat12 wrote: »

jgnatca wrote: »

@jmbmilholland here's a racial dot map of texas.


http://demographics.coopercenter.org/DotMap/

My Canadian sensibilities are tingling. We'd more likely call this ethnic origin here in Canada. And I'd rather look at poverty as being a factor rather than bone structure. Because "race" really, isn't more than skin deep is it? (Other than such things as sickle cell anemia).

From this map I've got to say that Dallas and Houston are rainbows. Does this indicate a cosmopolitan society or dense communities side by each?

We know that there's a correlation between race and obesity in the US. (Not saying it's a causal factor, obviously.)

http://stateofobesity.org/disparities/

"Among U.S. adults, Black and Latino populations have substantially higher rates of obesity than do White populations. This is true among both men and women."

I think that may be important for understanding the TX stats (although I am not familiar enough with TX demographics or geography to be certain).

You can also bank on hispanics in the southwest of Texas being more 'connected' with Mexico and parts south. Lots of back and forth across the border there, and that's reflected in the nearest cities. Also, don't forget the flourishing drug trafficking trade along that border. I'd expect that to reflect in the health factors map at the least.

Also, re: "From this map I've got to say that Dallas and Houston are rainbows. Does this indicate a cosmopolitan society or dense communities side by each?" - both. In the middle income and up areas the ethnicities are pretty evenly distributed. Still majority white, but there's not clear separations of one ethnicity or the other (exception for one area I know of with a very high concentration of Jews, but that's based on religion and a desire to be able to walk to synagogue, etc).

The poorer areas are tight enclaves of each of the ethnicities that pretty much exclude all others. Most of these are enclaves of fairly recent immigrants (within the last couple of generations) and their descendants. They are slammed up against the higher income areas.

senecarr

jgnatca wrote: »

@senecarr suggested that a sedentary lifestyle and population density are related to obesity. So I pulled a population density map.



It appears the rural southwest is in much deeper trouble, and population density is not their problem.

I also suggest that not all dense urban areas are un-walkable. Manhattan is highly walkable.

Whether walkable or not, if the area is dense, people will need to make use of parking structure and walk to and from that to their location instead of parking in the lot at their location.
My comment was more aimed at California and the East Coast locations.

senecarr

It was suggested in the other thread that race might be a proxy for poverty, and that saying race may be a factor independent of ancestry might not be a concern.

I think that is a bit of white-washing of racial issues. Regardless of origin and genetics or income, being a minority is an increased stress on individuals and leads to different treatment in the USA. Much of this can lead towards worse health outcomes, increased rates of obesity.

jgnatca

Ah, yes @senecarr I can get behind the possibility of different treatment, coming from a visible minority, different treatment, and the stresses around that. In Canada we have a poor record on how we treated the native populations.

jgnatca

Let's take a look at California then, which overall does better than a good part of the US.


Compared against population density:


And walkability:


The cities still come out smelling like roses.

Now, getting back to Texas, @stealthq does mention that some communities are insular and jammed up right beside a contrasting wealthy district. The "rainbow" I was seeing on the race map. I know from my understanding of income inequality, that the wider the gap, the greater the destabilisation of the community. It's like, seeing how the "other side" lives on a daily basis, is hard on people.

@jmbmilholland if we are talking apples and oranges, then show me your orange.