Determining maintanance calories

ConicalFern

I've read around other forums that people tend to reduce their calories by 100 or so each week until they stop losing weight, I just have a few questions about doing this. I've been eating to MFP's suggested maintenance value for 12d and trendweight says that I'm still eating at a 316 calorie deficit, basic readings on the scale say that I've lost almost 2lb in that time.

How long do people normally use as their 'sample' period for determining maintenance calories? Can my weight loss explained by something other than not eating enough calories?

I do feel quite hungry throughout the day so I would be grateful for some extra calories but I'm anxious about setting a value that's too high! I was thinking upping my calories by around 150 a day.

Any other tips on finding out my 'true' maintenance value?

Thanks!!

cwolfman13

If you're losing weight as a general trend, you're not eating at maintenance. You'll know if you upped it too much because you'll gain weight as a general trend.

ConicalFern

cwolfman13 wrote: »

If you're losing weight as a general trend, you're not eating at maintenance. You'll know if you upped it too much because you'll gain weight as a general trend.

Thanks, but I'm aware of the basic logic, but what I'm wondering is:

ConicalFern wrote: »

.

How long do people normally use as their 'sample' period for determining maintenance calories? Can my weight loss explained by something other than not eating enough calories?

RoxieDawn

This is trial and error. You are loosing weight because you are still in a deficit. There is no other explanation other than you are not eating enough to maintain the weight yet or you need a doctor to rule out any medical related issues.

Not everyone will be the same, so if you are loosing, UP the calories again. Why not use the three week rule as the same as for eating at the deficit. If you need a shorter period, then try two weeks out.

TheUwuest

https://tdeecalculator.net/ all you should need, at least as a general guideline

loulamb7

ConicalFern wrote: »

How long do people normally use as their 'sample' period for determining maintenance calories? Can my weight loss explained by something other than not eating enough calories?

I normally wait 3-4 weeks before making any changes. Considering you've lost almost 2 lbs in 12 days, I would raise your calories now and than monitor for a few weeks.

5stringjeff

When in maintenance, I tend to relook at calories every 2 weeks or so, and make minor adjustments from there. But given that you're still losing, I think it's safe to add 100 calories or so now, and reevaluate next week to see if you've stabilized yet.

cwolfman13

ConicalFern wrote: »

cwolfman13 wrote: »

If you're losing weight as a general trend, you're not eating at maintenance. You'll know if you upped it too much because you'll gain weight as a general trend.

Thanks, but I'm aware of the basic logic, but what I'm wondering is:

ConicalFern wrote: »

.

How long do people normally use as their 'sample' period for determining maintenance calories? Can my weight loss explained by something other than not eating enough calories?

I guess I don't know what you mean by "sample period". When I went to maintenance I just let my calories creep up until, as a general trend, I was maintaining weight. Also be aware that you'll likely have a higher calorie amount than you think you would...just as your metabolism slows when you diet, it speeds up when you "reverse diet".

When I went to maintenance, given my rate of loss, I thought it would be somewhere around 2500 calories because I had started losing so slowly at 2300...my maintenance (three years now) is somewhere around 2800-3000...as I started eating more, everything just started firing on all cylinders. I think also my workouts got better because I simply had more energy to really go so I'm sure that played a roll as well.

ConicalFern

cwolfman13 wrote: »

ConicalFern wrote: »

cwolfman13 wrote: »

If you're losing weight as a general trend, you're not eating at maintenance. You'll know if you upped it too much because you'll gain weight as a general trend.

Thanks, but I'm aware of the basic logic, but what I'm wondering is:

ConicalFern wrote: »

.

How long do people normally use as their 'sample' period for determining maintenance calories? Can my weight loss explained by something other than not eating enough calories?

I guess I don't know what you mean by "sample period". When I went to maintenance I just let my calories creep up until, as a general trend, I was maintaining weight. Also be aware that you'll likely have a higher calorie amount than you think you would...just as your metabolism slows when you diet, it speeds up when you "reverse diet".

When I went to maintenance, given my rate of loss, I thought it would be somewhere around 2500 calories because I had started losing so slowly at 2300...my maintenance (three years now) is somewhere around 2800-3000...as I started eating more, everything just started firing on all cylinders. I think also my workouts got better because I simply had more energy to really go so I'm sure that played a roll as well.

Sorry if I didn't make myself clear, what I mean is, how long should you wait before changing your calorie goal? Obviously weight loss/gain over 2d is most likely water weight, and a month is too long, so how long should I wait before changing my calorie intake?

TavistockToad

ConicalFern wrote: »

cwolfman13 wrote: »

ConicalFern wrote: »

cwolfman13 wrote: »

If you're losing weight as a general trend, you're not eating at maintenance. You'll know if you upped it too much because you'll gain weight as a general trend.

Thanks, but I'm aware of the basic logic, but what I'm wondering is:

ConicalFern wrote: »

.

How long do people normally use as their 'sample' period for determining maintenance calories? Can my weight loss explained by something other than not eating enough calories?

I guess I don't know what you mean by "sample period". When I went to maintenance I just let my calories creep up until, as a general trend, I was maintaining weight. Also be aware that you'll likely have a higher calorie amount than you think you would...just as your metabolism slows when you diet, it speeds up when you "reverse diet".

When I went to maintenance, given my rate of loss, I thought it would be somewhere around 2500 calories because I had started losing so slowly at 2300...my maintenance (three years now) is somewhere around 2800-3000...as I started eating more, everything just started firing on all cylinders. I think also my workouts got better because I simply had more energy to really go so I'm sure that played a roll as well.

Sorry if I didn't make myself clear, what I mean is, how long should you wait before changing your calorie goal? Obviously weight loss/gain over 2d is most likely water weight, and a month is too long, so how long should I wait before changing my calorie intake?

you've lost 2lbs in 12 days... eat more....

Densans

Evaluate every 7-10 days with a moving average and then add/subtract calories.

benevempress

How large a deficit were you running before you started trying to maintain? If it was more than 250, you are hungry during the day and want to eat more, and you are still losing weight rapidly, I don't see any reason to only add 100 every few weeks. You have your data, including trendweight, which tells you your current level of calories is too low. Has trendweight been pretty accurate for you so far? If so, and it says you are eating 300+ under maintenance, unless you are trying to lose a few more pounds before actually maintaining, why not eat more now?

I think the advice to wait a few weeks on a partcular calorie level is more relevant when you are very close to maintenance calories and you are monitoring as you continue on and less so if you are coming off a larger deficit and trying to find maintenance calories.

coreyreichle

ConicalFern wrote: »

I've read around other forums that people tend to reduce their calories by 100 or so each week until they stop losing weight, I just have a few questions about doing this. I've been eating to MFP's suggested maintenance value for 12d and trendweight says that I'm still eating at a 316 calorie deficit, basic readings on the scale say that I've lost almost 2lb in that time.

How long do people normally use as their 'sample' period for determining maintenance calories? Can my weight loss explained by something other than not eating enough calories?

I do feel quite hungry throughout the day so I would be grateful for some extra calories but I'm anxious about setting a value that's too high! I was thinking upping my calories by around 150 a day.

Any other tips on finding out my 'true' maintenance value?

Thanks!!

I use a 14 day window to determine it. It's enough time to gather trend data.

sijomial

I actually do it a little differently these days and just leave my goal as 2000 + exercise calories all the time and simply under or overeat depending on what I'm seeking to achieve.
I don't bother with analysis of trends. I just weigh myself daily and go on what I feel is the underlying long term trend. It makes it relaxed and flexible which suits me better.

To me a long term trend is at least three weeks, my weight follows my calorie balance over time but can take weeks to even out fluctuations.

StealthHealth

I think you need at least a 2 week period to identify a real trend or plateau. More for any women reading this (OP is male) where TOTM occurs in that window.

I used to work in a manufacturing environment and we used process control charts to identify trends, step changes, and outliers. I've often wondered if the PCC equations would be suitable for weight monitoring. If I remember rightly you needed 10 consecutive points on one side of the moving average line to identify a step change (such as weight loss or gain). Does anyone have any experience of this technique?

5stringjeff

StealthHealth wrote: »

I think you need at least a 2 week period to identify a real trend or plateau. More for any women reading this (OP is male) where TOTM occurs in that window.

I used to work in a manufacturing environment and we used process control charts to identify trends, step changes, and outliers. I've often wondered if the PCC equations would be suitable for weight monitoring. If I remember rightly you needed 10 consecutive points on one side of the moving average line to identify a step change (such as weight loss or gain). Does anyone have any experience of this technique?

That's interesting. I remember using these charts in several classes as I was getting my MBA, but I've never thought about them in terms of weight loss. Unfortunately, I'm not sure you could control all the factors that go into weight fluctuations (water retention, for example), so I'm not sure if it would work as well as you're suggesting.

StealthHealth

@5stringjeff Yeah I think you're right: I think that you would end up making nearly every point an outlier - never getting a stable enough data set to say "this is a trend".

Interesting was that, when I used them in industry, with experience, you could just look at the plotted data (without all the trend lines and data point markers etc) and identify set points and outliers. In other words, they were really used as a way of formalizing/standardizing/quantifying what people do naturally: Spot trends and patterns.

ConicalFern

benevempress wrote: »

How large a deficit were you running before you started trying to maintain? If it was more than 250, you are hungry during the day and want to eat more, and you are still losing weight rapidly, I don't see any reason to only add 100 every few weeks. You have your data, including trendweight, which tells you your current level of calories is too low. Has trendweight been pretty accurate for you so far? If so, and it says you are eating 300+ under maintenance, unless you are trying to lose a few more pounds before actually maintaining, why not eat more now?

I think the advice to wait a few weeks on a partcular calorie level is more relevant when you are very close to maintenance calories and you are monitoring as you continue on and less so if you are coming off a larger deficit and trying to find maintenance calories.

I was at around a 550 cal/day deficit. When I was losing trendweight was pretty accurate, although it tended to have a greater calorie deficit than MFP, although not by much. I'm also a fair bit more active at work at the moment so I suspect that's playing a factor in the weight loss.

I think I'm just being super paranoid about putting weight on again.

benevempress

Many people (myself included) are fearful about weight gain after the long process of getting it off. My fear is that one day I'll wake up and find I'm suddenly 50+ pounds heavier, even though my mathematical mind knows that can't happen. Remember that unless you are eating thousands of extra calories per week (not hundreds), any weight gain isn't going to be quick, and you'll have a chance to arrest it and correct it. So if you have data (and you do) that shows you are eating too little (and you keep losing) my advice is to try to get past the fear and eat more. Your body needs it.

5stringjeff

StealthHealth wrote: »

@5stringjeff Yeah I think you're right: I think that you would end up making nearly every point an outlier - never getting a stable enough data set to say "this is a trend".

Interesting was that, when I used them in industry, with experience, you could just look at the plotted data (without all the trend lines and data point markers etc) and identify set points and outliers. In other words, they were really used as a way of formalizing/standardizing/quantifying what people do naturally: Spot trends and patterns.

I think that's the idea behind people using a trailing 28-day average weight, and then comparing their daily weigh-ins to that average. The outliers point to days when *something* significant happened; the process is to then figure out what and why, so they can implement some sort of change.

ConicalFern

Thanks for all the input guys, so in the end I decided to use a 14d 'sample period', during this time trendweight estimated that I burned 325 cal/day more than I was eating, and the raw numbers suggest that I lost 2.9lb. My average net calories for this period was 2352 / day.

I'm going to be conservative (?) and increase my calories my half the amount trendweight estimates I'm undereating and re-assess again the same way in 2 weeks. Formally then, assuming trendweight offers me a calorie deficit:

Calories goal = Current 2 week average calorie consumption + Calorie deficit from trendweight/2

If I get a positive number, I'm going to go for:

Calories goal = Current 2 week average calorie consumption - Calorie surplus from trendweight*2

This factors in that I would rather under eat than overeat and prevents unnecessary big shifts in calorie intake. Thoughts?

sijomial

In the end all the numbers do is give you a guide. But other factors can mean that the past doesn't accurately predict the future. For example being "fully fuelled" may make you feel more energetic so you are more active in your daily routine, perform better in your workouts, make different choices (walk don't drive, stairs not elevators...).

Be prepared to experiment and fine tune.

ConicalFern

sijomial wrote: »

In the end all the numbers do is give you a guide. But other factors can mean that the past doesn't accurately predict the future. For example being "fully fuelled" may make you feel more energetic so you are more active in your daily routine, perform better in your workouts, make different choices (walk don't drive, stairs not elevators...).

Be prepared to experiment and fine tune.

Yep, the plan is to re-evaluate every 2 weeks.

allyphoe

I back-calculate my maintenance calories from changes in trend weight and known caloric intake. It takes three months of data to get a number that isn't thrown off by random fluctuation. For shorter periods, I see a lot of variation - more than 10% plus or minus for a month-long period.

But I knew my maintenance calories before I switched to maintaining, because I'd been calculating them all along.

ConicalFern

allyphoe wrote: »

I back-calculate my maintenance calories from changes in trend weight and known caloric intake. It takes three months of data to get a number that isn't thrown off by random fluctuation. For shorter periods, I see a lot of variation - more than 10% plus or minus for a month-long period.

But I knew my maintenance calories before I switched to maintaining, because I'd been calculating them all along.

3 months is a long time to wait before adjusting your calorie number if you're losing though!!

My problem is that my daily activity levels tend to fluctuate around a bit from month to month, so one maintanance value is likely to serve in perpetuum.

I also agree with sijomial's comment that you're likely to be more active as your caloric intake increases.