How accurate are MFP weight predictions?

merissa87

At the end of the day when I complete my diary it always says "If everyday were like today, you'd weight *** in 5 weeks". How accurate are these predictions? I don't want to get my hopes up, can anyone who's had success with this comment? Thanks

elyelyse

mostly ignore it. it's doing math that only considers your most recent logged weight, combined with your calculated deficit on that day. All these numbers are just an estimate to begin with, so it's best not to get attached to that "if every day..." number.
So, if I have a light day, it predicts a ridiculously large loss, and if i have a day where i eat closer to maintenance, it gives me a number that feels like i'm losing at a snails pace.

eta: weight loss slows down the closer you are to your goal weight, so, you and I, eating at the same deficit, will most likely lose at a different rate. I don't think there is any real way for MFP to account for that.

Ready2Rock206

For me it's never even been slightly close. But if you were to eat those exact same things and exercise the exact same amount every day for 5 weeks it would probably be accurate.

bakergirl178

i have been using MFP for just over a year now.. i have been set at a 1 lb per week weight loss, which SHOULD translate into nearly 50 lbs lost... i've lost 8-10 (fluctuates). granted i have not strictly followed MFP guidelines, but honestly i have been an adamant tracker and i was expecting more!

elyelyse

i have been using MFP for just over a year now.. i have been set at a 1 lb per week weight loss, which SHOULD translate into nearly 50 lbs lost... i've lost 8-10 (fluctuates). granted i have not strictly followed MFP guidelines, but honestly i have been an adamant tracker and i was expecting more!

but tracking doesn't do anything but help you plan, and show you a record of what you've been doing... if you aren't actually sticking to the calorie goals that are set, no amount of tracking can help you.
Also, not everyone CAN lose 1lb a week. The closer you are to a healthy weight, the slower it comes off. A 150lb woman is going to lose more slowly than a 250 lb woman, even if they stick to the exact same diet and exercise regimen.

yaseyuku

Not very. Occasionally I lose more, occasionally less.

melaniecheeks

It's not a prediction - if you find it motivating as an indicator of what you MIGHT lose, then fine. If it annoys you, ignore it. I never press the "close diary" button.

TheRealParisLove

I find it motivating but not accurate. Sometimes I lose a lot faster, sometimes I gain for no apparent reason. I've been at a plateau for the better part of 6 months. I know I need to do something different, so now I'm working on a new plan for weight loss.

kimstwin

It's fun to see the number, but is not a reliable predictor.

Booksandbeaches

I've been here over a year. I haven't found the weight predictions to be accurate. It's fun to see, but not something I get too concerned about.

kellehbeans

I don't even pay attention to it.

LadyConundra

I completely ignore it, because I find that it is so inaccurate for me that its funny. I never track my excercise, never have, never will, so that is off for that reason alone. I find that it actually used to discourage me until i started ignoring it. Now I just laugh and say 'whatever'. Because no day is exactly the same.

ngyoung

Even though calories in can be tracked fairly close that is not so for calories out. Your metabolic system is complex and can be significantly different from one person to the next.

Deipneus

It's a fun stat and possibly motivating but not particularly useful because there are too many variables for it to be technically true. Plus, what are the chances that "every day will be like today". I look at it, but I don't take it seriously.