Difference between predicted and actual weight loss

stephenearllucas

Since January 1 of this year, I've been tracking, on a daily basis, "calories out" using my Fitbit Charge HR, and "calories in" using MyFitnessPal.

Keeping all the data in an Excel spreadsheet, I have compared my actual weight loss with that predicted by the above data.

On an ongoing, cumulative basis, the actual weight loss is between 64% and 66% of the predicted weight loss, e.g., if the predicted weight loss is 10 pounds for a given period of time, the actual weight is 6.4 to 6.6 pounds.

I'm just curious if anybody else out there has done similar tracking and, if so, what the results have been.

Edit: I'm not upset about the discrepancy--I understand that both CI and CO measurements are approximations / estimates; I'd just like to know if anyone else has tracked this using actual data, and what they have found.

Christine_72

I havent tracked using any set data other than Trendweight, but i can tell you that my fitbit overestimates for me. I try not to eat more than 50% of my exercise calories back.

stephenearllucas

Christine_72 wrote: »

I havent tracked using any set data other than Trendweight, but i can tell you that my fitbit overestimates for me. I try not to eat more than 50% of my exercise calories back.

Yes, I understand that CO is usually overestimated and CI is usually underestimated, and I'm not talking about eating back exercise calories--I get all that.

Again, I'm not unhappy with my results or what is going on (I've lost 53 pounds this year).

I'm just interested in: has anybody else tracked the difference between predicted and actual weight loss using actual data, and what they have found in terms of a difference or ratio.

melissa6771

@JeromeBarry1 this thread was made for you. It's like he's your twin!

Aaron_K123

Yeah happens all the time. If you've gotten this data from months of tracking with a consistent diet it's probably valid, up to you if you want to adjust your goal or not.

I'd argue if you are getting steady loss and you've found a comfortable sustainable place in your eating and excercise habits may as well stay there since it's working.

Aaron_K123

Two years ago I tracked my weight loss for 7 months over a 32 pound loss measuring daily. Can show you data when I get home if you are interested.

I modulated as I went to maintain a steady loss by upping my activity or raising my calories.

If memory serves I aimed for 1.5 pound loss per week and ended up at 1 pound a week comfortable so decided to maintain that.

daniip_la

I tracked my data for around three months upon getting my Fitbit, I lost 1lb more than the numbers predicted that I should have lost during that time. So my Fitbit is completely spot on. I believe the discrepancy is probably because I have my height set 3 inches below my actual height, as a slight calorie cushion.

Aaron_K123

daniip_la wrote: »

I tracked my data for around three months upon getting my Fitbit, I lost 1lb more than the numbers predicted that I should have lost during that time. So my Fitbit is completely spot on. I believe the discrepancy is probably because I have my height set 3 inches below my actual height, as a slight calorie cushion.

...and that's the cool thing. Once you have put in the time to be consistent in your diet and track long term as you have done OP you can learn how your body responds to certain intake and output and then you can tweak as desired.

To lose 1 pound a week I know MFP set to 1.5 pounds works pretty well for me. This example a 3" height reduction was the adjustment. Once you know that you are set. Should feel pretty good.

From your posts you seem to understand OP that CICO doesn't mean CI and CO behaves exactly the same across the entire population, it just means if you track and measure to determine how your individual CI and CO affects you then from then out you can use that math and tweak as needed.

AnvilHead

I've tracked my calories for the last 13 months, shooting for a 1 pound/week loss. Over the entirety of the 13 months, my loss has averaged out to 0.967 pounds/week. I've been pretty loose with my tracking - I log everything I eat/drink, but don't weigh things often and estimate a lot as we eat out 2-3 times a week, and have had plenty of days where I was a couple hundred under or several hundred over my calories along the way. So I guess all in all, my tracking was close enough.

Sued0nim

stephenearllucas wrote: »

Since January 1 of this year, I've been tracking, on a daily basis, "calories out" using my Fitbit Charge HR, and "calories in" using MyFitnessPal.

Keeping all the data in an Excel spreadsheet, I have compared my actual weight loss with that predicted by the above data.

On an ongoing, cumulative basis, the actual weight loss is between 64% and 66% of the predicted weight loss, e.g., if the predicted weight loss is 10 pounds for a given period of time, the actual weight is 6.4 to 6.6 pounds.

I'm just curious if anybody else out there has done similar tracking and, if so, what the results have been.

Edit: I'm not upset about the discrepancy--I understand that both CI and CO measurements are approximations / estimates; I'd just like to know if anyone else has tracked this using actual data, and what they have found.

Open a free trendweight account it tracks automatically via your Fitbit

What you have there is the difference between number estimates and your body ...your own data is valid the number your HR monitor spits out daily not so much

I don't agree with 24/7 wearables but I do wear a Fitbit zip constantly and a chest strap hrm during specific workouts I found my data does the opposite and points to a 200 calorie per day discrepancy in my favour eg I generally eat a couple hundred over my CO estimate to maintain

Actually if I set my Fitbit to 30 years younger and 2 inches taller it's more accurate

Francl27

It's only as accurate as your logging also.

I lost faster than I should have, but I didn't eat back exercise calories (I had no idea how much I burned, to be honest).

rybo

stephenearllucas wrote: »

Since January 1 of this year, I've been tracking, on a daily basis, "calories out" using my Fitbit Charge HR, and "calories in" using MyFitnessPal.

Keeping all the data in an Excel spreadsheet, I have compared my actual weight loss with that predicted by the above data.

On an ongoing, cumulative basis, the actual weight loss is between 64% and 66% of the predicted weight loss, e.g., if the predicted weight loss is 10 pounds for a given period of time, the actual weight is 6.4 to 6.6 pounds.

I'm just curious if anybody else out there has done similar tracking and, if so, what the results have been.

Edit: I'm not upset about the discrepancy--I understand that both CI and CO measurements are approximations / estimates; I'd just like to know if anyone else has tracked this using actual data, and what they have found.

I would find this very interesting to see the variations from person to person. However I doubt very many people would go to this extent in their tracking. I'm hoping others chime in that have.

RoxieDawn

rybo wrote: »

stephenearllucas wrote: »

Since January 1 of this year, I've been tracking, on a daily basis, "calories out" using my Fitbit Charge HR, and "calories in" using MyFitnessPal.

Keeping all the data in an Excel spreadsheet, I have compared my actual weight loss with that predicted by the above data.

On an ongoing, cumulative basis, the actual weight loss is between 64% and 66% of the predicted weight loss, e.g., if the predicted weight loss is 10 pounds for a given period of time, the actual weight is 6.4 to 6.6 pounds.

I'm just curious if anybody else out there has done similar tracking and, if so, what the results have been.

Edit: I'm not upset about the discrepancy--I understand that both CI and CO measurements are approximations / estimates; I'd just like to know if anyone else has tracked this using actual data, and what they have found.

I would find this very interesting to see the variations from person to person. However I doubt very many people would go to this extent in their tracking. I'm hoping others chime in that have.

raises hand..LOL

I actually do this. Between MFP, Garmin, trending app and my special spreadsheet I am very close in accuracy to real weight loss. Now I have spent numerous hours at this and Garmin did change their calculation not too long ago (very convoluted to say the least) that needed working on from an analysis standpoint..

I do not wear a 24/7 HR wearable per se, but use soft HR chest strap with my Garmin watch, if this makes a different to those using wrist HRs.

Aaron_K123

Found an old post of mine that is relevant to this discussion:

http://community.myfitnesspal.com/en/discussion/1364267/cico-in-practice#latest

Physical results:

http://community.myfitnesspal.com/en/discussion/1415525/180-days-28-pounds-down#latest

Sadly I failed the maintenance test and after 2 years I was back up to 180 which is why I am back.

stephenearllucas

Thanks, all--interesting feedback! Carry on.

AnnPT77

I don't do the spreadsheet level of precision, but have found that I have to eat substantially more than MFP or other calculators estimate, to achieve any given rate of weight loss (or maintenance).

I'm really, truly sedentary outside of actual intentional exercise, which I consistently estimate & eat back all of. (I'm retired, non-exercise hobbies are mostly things like jewelry making & needle crafts, and I probably don't get > 1000 steps in a typical day from daily activities.)

Most calculators estimate my sedentary NEAT around 1500, if not a bit below. But I lose weight (slowly, but consistently) if I stick to 1800 net. I estimate my actual NEAT at close to 2000.

When I was losing, I had to set MFP's activity setting to "active" (not "lightly active") to get even remotely accurate weight-loss-rate results. There's no way in the world my NEAT lifestyle is "active" (though my TDEE lifestyle may be - but I eat all my exercise calories!).

No, I have no idea why this is so. But I sure hope it continues!