Tracking weight loss

Aaron_K123

I've tracked calories and lost weight twice before using MFP, this will be my third time (maintenance is still an issue for me).

In all three times I have been very consistant, I have logged everything daily, I have used a food scale, I have eaten with a fairly consistant routine of favored recipes or prepared items and I have weighed myself daily. All three times I noticed something which I have come to expect now for myself but which I imagine is quite disheartening for many which is that for the first 4 weeks or so of starting to try to lose weight my weight does not change significantly. This I know is most likely due to water retention from changing my activity level but it is just interesting to see it almost predicitble down to the day to when my weight loss will start to be noticible and linear. This time I even stopped tracking my weight for a couple days right where I knew it was going to start that transition just to have a seperation to make it that much clearer.

This is my weight, measured daily, expressed as a 7-day moving average with standard deviations representing my weight range over that 7 day average. A point plotted on August 7th would be as an example my daily weight averaged from August 1st through 7th.

It is for this reason that when I see people posting about how they have started attempting to lose weight but they haven't seen any progress in their first 4 weeks that I just advice they not change anything and give it more time and see if the weight starts coming off. Sure maybe for them its because they aren't logging right, but often I think it genuinely is you just need to wait longer than 4 weeks when you are first starting.

Here is my total weight loss for this time around:



The "plateu" in the first 4 weeks is pretty evident.

Here is ignoring that first 4 weeks to see what my weight loss is.

Fitting this curve gives my weight loss at 1.2 pounds per week which is right where I expected it to be. I changed nothing in my routinue between that first 4 weeks and the remaining 5 weeks up to today and yet the first 4 weeks looks nothing like the last 5.

So if you are just starting out, have patience, stick with it, make sure you are being honest and accurate in your logging... but consistancy is key, don't change everything when you don't notice a difference on your scale in the first few weeks.

queenliz99

Nice

mikevfr

I am consistently under my goal based on 2lbs a week loss. However I am training a lot. I dropped a ton initially... Now it is levelling, even a mini plateau.

Aaron_K123

mikevfr wrote: »

I am consistently under my goal based on 2lbs a week loss. However I am training a lot. I dropped a ton initially... Now it is levelling, even a mini plateau.

I think people see that initial drop quite often if they are going from having a lot of high salt in their meals to restricting down so their salt intake is much lower or their water intake is higher. Get that initial big drop that way like right away drop 8 pounds. Then it levels into that type of "plateau" I'm talking about and then goes into consistant weight loss after that.

I don't usually even start weighing myself until a week in after I've gotten my routine going so I think I miss that initial drop.

mikevfr

Despite the plateau in weight my belly is shrinking and my suit trousers are less tight.

It's fun to see the difference. Happily I am not too hung up on weight. I do like data though. And smaller trousers

I shall post back here in a couple of weeks with an updated graph.

shrcpr

Good advice. I'm like that, too. Just a little slow getting going.

Aaron_K123

The first time I experienced that it was 5 weeks and around week 3 or 4 I was kind of scratching my head about it and wondering if I needed to change something about what I was doing. Now I just know to expect it.

daniip_la

You have error bars on your weight graph. That's a beautiful thing.

xaryo

Nice info treatment.

I like graph too.

For each day, to take the mean of the 7 days prior and the error bars are the min and max of these 7 days?

Aaron_K123

xaryo wrote: »

Nice info treatment.

I like graph too.

For each day, to take the mean of the 7 days prior and the error bars are the min and max of these 7 days?

Error bars are a +/- standard deviation of those 7 days, so not quite min and max. If I'm being consistant I would expect the trendline wouldn't deviate from 1 standard deviation of my daily measurements and so far that seems to be the case.

Aaron_K123

daniip_la wrote: »

You have error bars on your weight graph. That's a beautiful thing.

@daniip_la Well if I had a more accurate scale....I kid I kid, still feel bad about that one I went overboard.

Yeah its not a graph until it has error bars in my opinion. Graphs without error just make me skeptical. Although I guess in this case is more the natural range than it is error persay.

mikevfr

After more thinking about this. I have had a lot of salt on my food recently. Today sodium is on my restricted list.

My prediction is my 12 day plateau will be over by Sunday.

BusyRaeNOTBusty

I like your nerdy-ness.

mikevfr

And so it didn't even take until Sunday.

Bear in mind

• Wednesday I ate at maintenance (courtesy 6 pints of San Miguel at a work charity dinner). Yesterday I drank an entire bottle of red wine but still came in about 600 calories under maintenance.

However I have largely rested up after lots of weights and 25 mile cycle rides. Salt has been cut for 3 full days.

The scale is 3lbs lighter this morning compared to yesterday. So my theory of water retention through high sodium and muscle damage/repair seems to hold true.

upload photo

Aaron_K123

Just an update. A lot of people talk about ceasing exercise and having weight come off or starting exercise and having weight come on or that they "plateau". I have a good idea why this occurs and try to explain it when I can and I also come to expect it and have an idea of how long it will last. Recently I had a week where my activity level dropped to like 1/3 to 1/2 of what it usually is and not to suprisingly the weight flew off of me to the point I was dropping below trend line. Then after that week I resumed my activity and on top of that added a bodyweight lifting rountinue that gave me some DOMS. From that my weight increased and I switched to being just above the trendline.

From experience the next thing that will happen as I continue my current rountinue is the weight loss will come back in line with the trend so in the coming week I expect to drop a little over a pound to bring things back in line with that overall trend. It is possible that the change in routnie will extend my "plateu" by another week but lets see if the prediction holds.

Sued0nim

All over the shop yet within weight range, year in maintenance

Cos life and water

Aaron_K123

Back in line with trend. I expect it to drop a bit below the line, drag that trend line back down a bit to where it was then stabilize. So I'm guessing I'll drop again the next day and then probably start to even out back to a more steady loss. Time will tell, will adjust if needed. Sticking with my current activity level for now though so should be a less bumpy ride.

Aaron_K123

Have now measured bodyfat percentage by calipers 10 independent times which I think is enough to get a pretty good trend. Looking on target so far :-)

trigden1991

It makes me happy to know that I am not the only one who loves spreadsheets.

mitch16

Data is good