Does anyone have a formula to project weight loss?

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  • MegaMooseEsq
    MegaMooseEsq Posts: 3,118 Member
    VeronicaA76 wrote: »
    How good are you at calculous? The formula is a bit daunting. As your daily weight changes via CICO, this is a double variable equation. One is weight, the other is calorie deficit per day based on a recalculation of daily weight changes. You're maintenance calories are the start, and you need to use the Harris-benedict equation as part of your equation.

    My calculus is "I only made it to Trig I because a teacher told me I was bad at math and that was 16 years ago", but I would love to see the formula if you've got it.
  • PAV8888
    PAV8888 Posts: 14,145 Member
    If I understood correctly what you're trying to say, you're starting from the fallacy that there exists an equation that is more accurate than your own loging.

    In other words you're trying to figure out if you have errors in your logging by figuring out your diviation from an impartial equation.

    But such an equation that is specific to you does not exist.

    You can calculate your deviation from a standard formula... But that doesn't mean that you're logging incorrectly.

    There is no guarantee that you match the "standard".

    What you can do however is be CONSISTENT in how you log

    And if you're consistent in how you log, and possibly use a trending weight app or other way to estimate your weight level, you may be able to calculate how far off the predicted equations you are located.

    And of course you would still have to account for your potential body composition changes.

    If I do understand what you're trying to do, you may be better off thinking of it as a budget problem.

    You need to save 35,000 calories to lose 10lbs. Your savings each day depend on how many calories you ate and how many calories you spent. Ideally you shouldnot have a savings of more than 20% of calories spent in a day.... now over to someone who can translate this into something useful :blush:
  • loneda
    loneda Posts: 103 Member
    edited August 2017
    I am no mathematician, and I don't really understand what you want to do so ignore this if I am misunderstanding. But you can find the line of best fit to predict where your weight would be on a future day. Of course, it will only be accurate to a point since you won't get down to zero weight. This would give you the linear line of your weight loss, although since weight loss isn't linear it won't be 100 percent accurate. But I think scale apps probably do the same thing, so I don't know that you'd want to do the math.

    Is that what you want to do? If so I can post the formula. It is just the slope formula and slope-intercept equation of a line.
  • DamieBird
    DamieBird Posts: 651 Member
    So, it's not a formula per se, but I think that you may be over complicating things.

    If you simply want to predict your loss over time, you can look at your historical data and figure out what your current average rate of loss is over the past say, 6 weeks(42 days): (SW-CW)/42 = Rate of Loss (RoL)

    For future predictions:

    RoL x 35 = Future Loss (FL) over 5 weeks (which is that the MPF app tells you)

    CW-FL = Predicted weight in 5 weeks.

    Of course, this only works for mid term predictions, because as you lose more weight the average RoL will slow down. But, if all you're looking for is an easy way to see if you're generally staying on track, this will probably work. You can run the simulation weekly or so, which will update your Future Weight as your other variables change.

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