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Has Global Health and Wealth Increased or Decreased?
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Aaron_K123
Posts: 7,122 Member
in Debate Club
Just a random poll, curious whether or not people in general feel like average health of humanity as a whole (child mortality, life expectancy, quality of life etc) has improved, gotten worse or stayed about the same over the past 50 years? What do you base that feeling on?
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I would say these measures have improved for much of the world in that timeframe. Considering the world population has increased about 111% in that timeframe (~3.5 bn -> 7.4 bn), I would say the overall wealth of the world necessary to support that increase has improved greatly, even considering wealth inequalities that are more apparent now. The places that are worst off are suffering mostly due to ongoing conflicts or political problems (such as Syria and Venezuela).
If anything, many of the health problems in the developed world are due to overabundance and these are moving into developing societies.4 -
Dramatically increased. The only period in human history where we have seen an equal or greater life quality improvement being the preceding 50 years (1910-1960).
There are two primary drivers impacting disease rates - longevity and detection. This mass expansion of healthcare availability can hold the appearance that disease is on the rise, when the disease has always been there, but is now being managed/treated.
The advent of the internet and mass communication has a similar impact. Horrible things happened before, but we were never aware of them. There was a motivation to hide and minimize events that could have a negative impact.
As for basis - general knowledge of history and epidemiology.
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It's probably more static than we would expect, although I suspect a minor upturn.1
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Feeling? Well, I was reading a U.N. document a few weeks ago and quoted it in these discussions wherein has been documented that food calories available to each and every human on earth exceeds 2400/day now, and was much less than that 50 and 25 years ago.
A few days ago I read an article which explained that the portion of the planet subsisting on less than $2/day is smaller than ever before and getting smaller fast.
One of my facebook friends who lives in a Ugandan village away from the capital posted a home security video showing she had a refrigerator, but not an A/C, and a piece of fabric, not a door. I'm pretty sure she has a home security video system, too.
The reason that Venezuela is experiencing a crisis of population loss through emigration is that the people are unwilling to re-adjust to living on less than $2/day because that population has never before had to learn how to do so. The reason that Europe had an immigration crisis after the various upheavals in the various countries south of Europe is that those populations also did not want to have to learn how to live on less than $2/day.
Deng told not only the poor of China that it was glorious to get rich.
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The reason I ask is because, in my opinion, all the data suggests that global health and wealth have vastly VASTLY improved over the last 50 years to the point where "third-world" doesn't really mean what it used to. Just to demonstrate what I mean I went to the world census data which is available via google public data (a seperate service kind of like google scholar). If you plot the two major indicies of health (life expectancy and child mortality rate) over time and by region this is what you get:
https://www.google.com/publicdata/explore?ds=d5bncppjof8f9_&ctype=b&strail=false&nselm=s&met_x=sp_dyn_le00_in&scale_x=lin&ind_x=false&met_y=sp_dyn_tfrt_in&scale_y=lin&ind_y=false&met_s=sp_pop_totl&scale_s=lin&ind_s=false&dimp_c=country:region&ifdim=country&iconSize=0.5&uniSize=0.035#!ctype=b&strail=false&bcs=d&nselm=s&met_x=sp_dyn_le00_in&scale_x=lin&ind_x=false&met_s=sp_pop_totl&scale_s=lin&ind_s=false&dimp_c=country:region&met_y=sh_dyn_mort&scale_y=lin&ind_y=false&ifdim=country&pit=-304448400000&hl=en_US&dl=en_US&ind=false
Hit the play button
Still some improvement to be had in subsaharan Africa for sure but even that region in 2015 is as good as east asia and central america was in the 60s. There just isn't a "third world" anymore in the way it was used previously. The fact that giant population centers like China and India have come close to the standards of Europe alone means the majority of people on the planet are so much better off than they used to be. Looking at China alone China in the 60s is where Somalia is in 2015 and in 2015 China is better off than the United States was in the 60s.
That said you talk to most people on the internet and they act like health is on the decline or something and you ask why they think that and they start talking about the unnatural food coloring in their carmel macchiato. As someone who works in the global health sector it is super frustrating. I'm just not sure if that is actually a majority of people who feel that way or just the loud mouths.
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the US is one of the wealthiest countries on the planet, the distribution of that money across the population is such that the top 1% own 40% of the nation's wealth.
Not surprising. The average American overspends, doesn't save or invest enough, and doesn't like the job they chose. With those choices, they shouldn't expect to accumulate wealth.8 -
Wealth inequality is a problem and one that is likely to just get worse with the advent of information technologies where more and more intellectual property rather than labor is wealth.
I'll muck around with Google Public Data explorer and see what I can chart with regards to wealth...I know the indicies for global health better than I do for economics though.
I invite other people to play with that data viewer as well, its kind of fun and definitely eye opening. Plus you are looking at the raw data, no filter of bias from someone writing a story.
https://www.google.com/publicdata/directory1 -
Aaron_K123 wrote: »The reason I ask is because, in my opinion, all the data suggests that global health and wealth have vastly VASTLY improved over the last 50 years to the point where "third-world" doesn't really mean what it used to. Just to demonstrate what I mean I went to the world census data which is available via google public data (a seperate service kind of like google scholar). If you plot the two major indicies of health (life expectancy and child mortality rate) over time and by region this is what you get:
https://www.google.com/publicdata/explore?ds=d5bncppjof8f9_&ctype=b&strail=false&nselm=s&met_x=sp_dyn_le00_in&scale_x=lin&ind_x=false&met_y=sp_dyn_tfrt_in&scale_y=lin&ind_y=false&met_s=sp_pop_totl&scale_s=lin&ind_s=false&dimp_c=country:region&ifdim=country&iconSize=0.5&uniSize=0.035#!ctype=b&strail=false&bcs=d&nselm=s&met_x=sp_dyn_le00_in&scale_x=lin&ind_x=false&met_s=sp_pop_totl&scale_s=lin&ind_s=false&dimp_c=country:region&met_y=sh_dyn_mort&scale_y=lin&ind_y=false&ifdim=country&pit=-304448400000&hl=en_US&dl=en_US&ind=false
Hit the play button
Still some improvement to be had in subsaharan Africa for sure but even that region in 2015 is as good as east asia and central america was in the 60s. There just isn't a "third world" anymore in the way it was used previously. The fact that giant population centers like China and India have come close to the standards of Europe alone means the majority of people on the planet are so much better off than they used to be. Looking at China alone China in the 60s is where Somalia is in 2015 and in 2015 China is better off than the United States was in the 60s.
That said you talk to most people on the internet and they act like health is on the decline or something and you ask why they think that and they start talking about the unnatural food coloring in their carmel macchiato. As someone who works in the global health sector it is super frustrating. I'm just not sure if that is actually a majority of people who feel that way or just the loud mouths.
I was going to say "vastly improved" before reading this, just so you know I didn't cheat.
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Cherimoose wrote: »the US is one of the wealthiest countries on the planet, the distribution of that money across the population is such that the top 1% own 40% of the nation's wealth.
Not surprising. The average American overspends, doesn't save or invest enough, and doesn't like the job they chose. With those choices, they shouldn't expect to accumulate wealth.
you're assuming people are just 'choosing' Sh*tty jobs. People take the best jobs they can get. And all too often those jobs don't pay enough for people to save or invest because those at the top have set the minimum wage well below what's considered a liveable wage.
...so it has more to do with the exploitative nature of Capitalism itself than individual financial literacy/irresponsibility
but go off, i guess.
But globally speaking rather than regionally speaking....? I meant more how do you think humanity is doing.2 -
Cherimoose wrote: »the US is one of the wealthiest countries on the planet, the distribution of that money across the population is such that the top 1% own 40% of the nation's wealth.
Not surprising. The average American overspends, doesn't save or invest enough, and doesn't like the job they chose. With those choices, they shouldn't expect to accumulate wealth.
imo - blaming the "people" as a whole - for their own poverty is pretty short sighted.
8 -
Well wealth in terms of per capita GDP is certainly very well correlated to health in terms of overall life expectancy
https://www.google.com/publicdata/explore?ds=d5bncppjof8f9_&ctype=b&strail=false&nselm=s&met_x=sp_dyn_le00_in&scale_x=lin&ind_x=false&met_y=sp_dyn_tfrt_in&scale_y=lin&ind_y=false&met_s=sp_pop_totl&scale_s=lin&ind_s=false&dimp_c=country:region&ifdim=country&iconSize=0.5&uniSize=0.035#!ctype=b&strail=false&bcs=d&nselm=s&met_x=sp_dyn_le00_in&scale_x=lin&ind_x=false&met_s=sp_pop_totl&scale_s=lin&ind_s=false&dimp_c=country:region&met_y=ny_gdp_pcap_kd&scale_y=log&ind_y=false&ifdim=country&hl=en_US&dl=en_US&ind=false1 -
Aaron_K123 wrote: »The reason I ask is because, in my opinion, all the data suggests that global health and wealth have vastly VASTLY improved over the last 50 years to the point where "third-world" doesn't really mean what it used to. Just to demonstrate what I mean I went to the world census data which is available via google public data (a seperate service kind of like google scholar). If you plot the two major indicies of health (life expectancy and child mortality rate) over time and by region this is what you get:
https://www.google.com/publicdata/explore?ds=d5bncppjof8f9_&ctype=b&strail=false&nselm=s&met_x=sp_dyn_le00_in&scale_x=lin&ind_x=false&met_y=sp_dyn_tfrt_in&scale_y=lin&ind_y=false&met_s=sp_pop_totl&scale_s=lin&ind_s=false&dimp_c=country:region&ifdim=country&iconSize=0.5&uniSize=0.035#!ctype=b&strail=false&bcs=d&nselm=s&met_x=sp_dyn_le00_in&scale_x=lin&ind_x=false&met_s=sp_pop_totl&scale_s=lin&ind_s=false&dimp_c=country:region&met_y=sh_dyn_mort&scale_y=lin&ind_y=false&ifdim=country&pit=-304448400000&hl=en_US&dl=en_US&ind=false
Hit the play button
Still some improvement to be had in subsaharan Africa for sure but even that region in 2015 is as good as east asia and central america was in the 60s. There just isn't a "third world" anymore in the way it was used previously. The fact that giant population centers like China and India have come close to the standards of Europe alone means the majority of people on the planet are so much better off than they used to be. Looking at China alone China in the 60s is where Somalia is in 2015 and in 2015 China is better off than the United States was in the 60s.
That said you talk to most people on the internet and they act like health is on the decline or something and you ask why they think that and they start talking about the unnatural food coloring in their carmel macchiato. As someone who works in the global health sector it is super frustrating. I'm just not sure if that is actually a majority of people who feel that way or just the loud mouths.
There's an element of human nature that rejoices in suffering. Having lived in the third world for a good portion of my youth I find it difficult not to slap people complaining of first world problems. At some point my restraint will break and this will trigger my tri-state slapping spree. You can all remember this post and the multiple warning signs.
If you have the ability and leisure time to vent your frustrations on the internet...you have a damn good life.
I look at what's happening in China as an interesting experiment into human nature. They are experiencing their "Western" boom, but only on the cusp of their labor moment. People will tolerate oppression as long as needs and wants are met, but if these are not met....Venezuela comes to mind.0 -
I would have said basically what's already been said -- globally, huge improvement. In the US, more static.1
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Aaron_K123 wrote: »Wealth inequality is a problem and one that is likely to just get worse with the advent of information technologies where more and more intellectual property rather than labor is wealth.
I'll muck around with Google Public Data explorer and see what I can chart with regards to wealth...I know the indicies for global health better than I do for economics though.
I invite other people to play with that data viewer as well, its kind of fun and definitely eye opening. Plus you are looking at the raw data, no filter of bias from someone writing a story.
https://www.google.com/publicdata/directory
Fun!
Looked at infant mortality in several countries - it has definitely declined over the years, but in the US, the rate of decline is much slower.
"Babies born in America are less likely to reach their first birthday than babies born in other wealthy countries in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), a new study found. While infant mortality rates have declined across the OECD since 1960, including in America, the U.S. has failed to keep pace with its high-income peers, according to a report published in the journal Health Affairs.
Compared to 19 similar OECD countries, U.S. babies were three times more likely to die from extreme immaturity and 2.3 times more likely to experience sudden infant death syndrome between 2001 and 2010, the most recent years for which comparable data is available across all the countries. If the U.S. had kept pace with the OECD’s overall decline in infant mortality since 1960, that would have resulted in about 300,000 fewer infant deaths in America over the course of 50 years, the report found.
The reasons the U.S. has fallen behind include higher poverty rates relative to other developed countries and a relatively weak social safety net, says lead author Ashish Thakrar, medical resident at the Johns Hopkins Hospital and Health System.
“The poorer children are, the worse their health outcomes are,” says Thakrar, whose team found that poverty among U.S. children has been higher than in the 19 comparable OECD countries since the mid 1980s.
Premature delivery and low birthweight have been consistently associated with poverty, which affects over 20% of U.S. children, the second highest percent among 35 developed nations, according to a 2013 United Nations Children’s Fund report."
Sobering. I never thought of the US as a poor country.
http://time.com/5090112/infant-mortality-rate-usa/0 -
lemurcat12 wrote: »I would have said basically what's already been said -- globally, huge improvement. In the US, more static.
Well things like child mortality and life expectency can only improve so much, there is a limit...one a hard limit (0 deaths) and one a limit of technology and biology.1 -
as a whole, health has gotten exponentially better in most areas. Global life expectancy is still improving (although it's still disproportionally low in africa and parts of asia) and infant mortality is decreasing.
with wealth, it's hard to say. Wealth inequality in a lot of places (including the US) is still REALLY bad. Even though the US is one of the wealthiest countries on the planet, the distribution of that money across the population is such that the top 1% own 40% of the nation's wealth. And that's only getting worse.
While there will always be a top/bottom x% the individuals are continually moving through various brackets, so the top 1% will change from generation to generation, just as the bottom 1% will. This mobility is vastly improved in capitalist systems as opposed to more authoritarian systems.2 -
https://www.google.com/publicdata/explore?ds=c8op9mhgodplq_#!ctype=c&strail=false&bcs=d&nselm=s&met_y=mean_income_current&fdim_y=country:US&scale_y=log&ind_y=false&idim=distribution_bracket:1:2:4:3:5:6&ifdim=distribution_bracket&pit=-83610000000&hl=en_US&dl=en_US&ind=false
That is the distribution of mean household income over time in the United states over the last 50 years broken down by distribution (lowest 20%, next 20%, next 20%, next 20%, next 20% then top 5%). Overall it seems like each bracket has seen increases and there hasn't been all that much change in the differences between brackets. I'm sure the top 0.1% are an exception but in general I don't think it is as bad as some make it out to be. I think the top 0.1% have gotten ridiculously wealthy while the rest of the population has minor increases in wealth...but everyone has gone up on average.4 -
Aaron_K123 wrote: »lemurcat12 wrote: »I would have said basically what's already been said -- globally, huge improvement. In the US, more static.
Well things like child mortality and life expectency can only improve so much, there is a limit...one a hard limit (0 deaths) and one a limit of technology and biology.
Yes, and I think something of the feeling of decline that some in the US have is because the same results feel better when you are way ahead vs. feel like everyone is gaining on you.
Not that things in the US could not be improved in some ways, such as infant mortality (compared to other developed countries).0
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