The Need for Speed

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Evelyn_Gorfram
Evelyn_Gorfram Posts: 706 Member
edited August 2018 in Health and Weight Loss
I'm starting out on my 100-lb-plus weight loss journey - yet again - and so I've been thinking out things like my goal weight, target intakes, and what rate of weight loss to aim for.

I ran across this great idea last night - if I simply eat at the intake level needed to maintain at my goal weight, and I gradually increase my activity level; I'll start out nice and slow, then the rate will taper down as I approach my goal weight. And when I hit my goal weight, I'll already be in maintenance. No transition, no relearning or recomping anything, and perhaps my best chance for actually maintaining my goal weight and not gaining it all back yet again.

Then I did the math: a little over two years for the first 100 lbs, nine months for the next 20 lbs, and 18 months for the final 20 pounds. I put it all into a spreadsheet that spit out a projected goal-reaching date of April 5, 2023!.

That's nearly five years from now. I'm not even sure 2023 is going to happen (Global Warming! North Korea! Wandering asteroids!). And even if it does, I'll be old by then. I'm a spring chicken now - one who's seen 56 springs - but in 2023 I'll be a sexagenarian! ...Sure, it's the sexiest -genarian to be, but I'll still be a (whatever)-generian. (While I might say that I'm a quinquagenarian now, most people wouldn't (plus I don't think I can pronounce it).)

I don't want to reach goal weight in 2023! I want to reach it next summer, or next month, or next week. Or to have never been overweight in the first place. ... Yeah, let's make that happen.

So, having gotten all that out of my system, now I have room for facts and logic to start leaking in. Like I'll be 61 in 2023, no matter what happens. (Unless the earth actually is destroyed by re-animated dinosaurs, and then I won't have to worry about it.) And if I eat a nutritious diet in moderation - which basically is my eating plan - and slowly work up to a appropriate activity level for me - which is my basically my exercise plan - I'll be better off, no matter what happens. If I put it that way, it seems like there's not really any good reason not to do it.

(Except that it's a lot of hard work. Facts and logic sure can be annoying sometimes.)

Replies

  • jennifer_417
    jennifer_417 Posts: 12,344 Member
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    You're hilarious! And you can totally do this!
  • jdubois5351
    jdubois5351 Posts: 460 Member
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    I have nothing constructive to add, just wanted to say thanks for the laugh, I loved your post! You should write a blog or something.
  • TavistockToad
    TavistockToad Posts: 35,719 Member
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    Where did you get the maths of the last 20lbs taking 18 month?
  • Evelyn_Gorfram
    Evelyn_Gorfram Posts: 706 Member
    edited August 2018
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    middlehaitch wrote: »
    What planning!
    Thanks. :)

    I'm pretty good with planning. With execution, my results can be more variable...
    middlehaitch wrote: »
    It is doable, and being a sexagenarian isn't bad at all, honest.
    Especially when you hit it at a good fitness level and in good health.
    OMG, now I've insulted every sexagenarian out there. :'( (And when you're all so sexy, too... :* )
    middlehaitch wrote: »
    Have you looked at the time it will take doing the MFP 2-1.5-1-0.5 decrease in lbs lost, or 1%of body weight?
    Have you thought of doing a hybrid?
    Not familiar with the "MFP 2-1.5-1-0.5 decrease in lbs lost," or with what you mean by "hybrid"?

    I did do my own graduated rate projection, starting at 2lb/week, and decreasing 0.25 lb/week every time BMI dropped by 2.5. That worked out to roughly two years.

    I also did a 0.5% Body Mass/Week projection, which also works out to two years.

    The thing is, I'm worried about maintenance. I've dieted down to goal weight before, and maintained once for six months, and once for three years. I don't want to ever find myself gaining it all back again. What little non-anecdotal information I've been able to find about long-term success with weight loss indicates that the slower it comes off, the longer it stays off.

    Since I've been feeling my age lately (birthday in two weeks - I'm not technically 56 yet), it even occurs to me that (140 lbs to lose)/(21 years of further life expectancy) = 1/8 of a pound per week. At that rate, I'd reach my goal weight on the day I am statistically destined to drop dead, and thus not have never have worry about maintenance at all! B) (Is that dark? Okay, sorry, that's kind of dark.)
    middlehaitch wrote: »
    Work your way down to what your maintenance at your goal weight at 61 will be. If it is going to be a drop of over 1000cals/2lbs a week initially.
    Not sure which drop you mean here: 1000 cals/day from what I was eating before to what I'm eating now? Or 1000 cals/day between what I'm eating now and what I'll be eating at goal weight?
    middlehaitch wrote: »
    Also, don't forget your BMI drops as you lose weight and as you age. Not a lot as you age (I just lost 5 cals when I turned 65).
    Doh! I did forget that! All my projections are for me at age 56. :/ However, I checked the last calc for age 61, and it only drops me 40 cal/day.

    (Uh, you did mean BMR, right? If my BMI starts changing with some gawdawful index keyed to my age, I'm going to have a screaming hissy fit.)


    My projections are all keyed to a target calorie intake of 1950 cal daily; for maintenance at Weight = 170 lb, BMR = 1421, assuming light exercise or walking 3-4 days per week - and assuming 56 years of age :| . At 5'9," this puts my BMI right at 25 (I am also refusing to address the idea that my height might decrease with age - perish the very thought!).

    This give me projected weight loss rates of:
    0.88 lbs/week for the first 25 lbs (BMR 2016-1947), at my current "sub-sedentary" activity level (1)
    0.75 lbs/wk for the second 25 lbs (BMR 1947-1834), with activity level increasing to "sedentary" (2)
    1.00 lbs/week for the third 25 lbs (BMR 1834-1721), activity increased to my "slightly active" target level (3)
    0.75 lb/week for the fourth 25 lbs (BMR 1721-1607), activity at "slightly active" target level
    0.50 lbs/week for the next 20 lbs (BMR 1607-1507), activity at "slightly active" target level
    0.25 lbs/week for the final 20 lbs (BMR 1507-1421), activity at "slightly active" target level (4)

    (1) Based on the above stats, and using Sailrabbit's Basal Metabolic Rate (BMR) and Total Daily Energy Expenditure (TDEE) Calculator (https://www.sailrabbit.com/bmr/), and using the activity level terms and factors and multipliers from that site.

    (2) I just realized, while writing this up, that it probably isn't going to take me a whole year to get from my current activity level to my target level. The slightness of the activity level for the 2nd 25-lb interval, along with the drop in BMR, even result in an apparent drop in weekly loss rate. But that will disappear when I re-calculate all this. And this all means that the time spent at those first two 25-lb intervals may be considerably less than I had anticipated. :)B)

    (3) Yes, this is a low target activity level to aim for. But I have never been an active person, and I would describe my current activity level as: "Regularly outrun by glaciers." Maybe I'll ultimately decide to go for more activity, but right now I'm aiming for: "So I'm not an athlete: I'm out here, ain't I?"

    (4) I've been thinking of this as "The Excruciatingly Slow Two-Years-To-Goal-Weight" Interval, but it occurs to me now that it's actually my "Pre-Maintenance" Interval, where I get to hone my maintenance skills and body while settling into my new permanent lifestyle.

    (Now I just need to come up with snappy motivational names for all my other intervals.)
    middlehaitch wrote: »
    Do make sure you have a good protein level, especially important for post menopausal women for muscle retention, even if not lifting, and bone density.
    Fat is important too helps with vitamin absorption and brain health, so don't sell yourself short.
    Of course, on both counts. My mom, a Depression-era Dust Bowl survivor, just about raised me on protein as a religion; and in my previous weigt loss efforts, I’ve discovered that anything below 45 gm fat/day is not good for me or anyone around me.

    Right now, I’ve got my dietary target set for 1950 calories at 45% Carbs (219 gm), 30% Fats (65 gm), and 25% Protein (122 gm). I’d like to go for a 40-30-30 balance; but I have hard time cutting my carbs back that far, and even sometimes with getting that much protein.
    middlehaitch wrote: »
    It is going to an adventure and it looks like you are up for it.

    Cheers, h.

    ps, that is the way my weight loss went, (deficit was the same as maintenance) but it was only 30lbs.
    Thanks so much for your encouragement and support!!! :):):)<3:*

    (And congratulations on your 30 lb loss!)

  • middlehaitch
    middlehaitch Posts: 8,483 Member
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    I'm on my way to bed. So a quick-

    my goodness you have really worked your numbers.

    I don't think you have upset any sexagenarians. Each decade sounds old until you reach it. I remember thinking I would be past it once I reached 40! How wrong I was.

    Don't worry about the questions/options I asked about. You have thought things through much more thoroughly than I ever would. Just be flexible if/when needed.

    The 30 lbs loss is a drop in the bucket, it's the 9yr maintenance I like.

    Cheers, h.
  • Evelyn_Gorfram
    Evelyn_Gorfram Posts: 706 Member
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    TavistockToad wrote: »
    Where did you get the maths of the last 20lbs taking 18 month?
    I go into my maths in more detail in a lo-ong post to @middlehaitch that cross-posted with this one, but a much shorter version is:

    Me at 190 lbs = BMR of 1507 cal/day. Consuming 1950 cal/day with light activity gives a projected weight loss of 0.25 lbs/week. All the real math here comes from the BMR & TDEE Calculator at https://www.sailrabbit.com/bmr/

    And then it's just: 20 lbs/(0.25 lb/week) = 80 week = approx. 18 month.
  • Evelyn_Gorfram
    Evelyn_Gorfram Posts: 706 Member
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    jennifer_417 wrote: »
    You're hilarious! And you can totally do this!
    Thanks so much! :):*

  • Evelyn_Gorfram
    Evelyn_Gorfram Posts: 706 Member
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    jdubois5351 wrote: »
    I have nothing constructive to add, just wanted to say thanks for the laugh, I loved your post! You should write a blog or something.
    Thanks so much. :)

    I have to admit that I've started at least a dozen blogs, but each time I eventually stopped keeping up with them...
    (there's a pattern of behavior here that makes me concerned for my ability to keep up with long-term plans for weight loss and maintenance, but I'll never even get the chance to fail - or not fail - if I don't begin).

  • TavistockToad
    TavistockToad Posts: 35,719 Member
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    Evelyn_Gorfram wrote: »
    TavistockToad wrote: »
    Where did you get the maths of the last 20lbs taking 18 month?
    I go into my maths in more detail in a lo-ong post to @middlehaitch that cross-posted with this one, but a much shorter version is:

    Me at 190 lbs = BMR of 1507 cal/day. Consuming 1950 cal/day with light activity gives a projected weight loss of 0.25 lbs/week. All the real math here comes from the BMR & TDEE Calculator at https://www.sailrabbit.com/bmr/

    And then it's just: 20 lbs/(0.25 lb/week) = 80 week = approx. 18 month.

    Fair enough. If you want to do the last 20 at that rate then thats fine.

    Good luck!
  • TeresaW1020
    TeresaW1020 Posts: 3,231 Member
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    All that math really hurts my head! :D:D I had never heard the word Sexagenarians before but I like it! B)

    I have a friend in her 70's who lost 125 lbs in less than 2 years. It's doable. You just gotta work your plan.
  • NovusDies
    NovusDies Posts: 8,940 Member
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    Evelyn_Gorfram wrote: »
    The thing is, I'm worried about maintenance. I've dieted down to goal weight before, and maintained once for six months, and once for three years. I don't want to ever find myself gaining it all back again. What little non-anecdotal information I've been able to find about long-term success with weight loss indicates that the slower it comes off, the longer it stays off.

    By that logic wouldn't it be then better to take 10 or 15 years to lose the weight?

    The length of time makes no sense to me other than take long enough to lose it in a healthy fashion. From all the people I know IRL that have lose weight and maintained ranging from 5 to close to 20 years there seems to be 2 main factors. You can't hate the way you lost the weight and you have to be diligent. Both of these have attributed to my regains. I stopped weighing myself and/or paying attention to clothes and I turned a blind eye to the obvious because I despised my diet practices so much.

    I will use my slimfast buddy as an example because he chose a path that I tried and failed at and would not want to try again but he managed to lose 60lbs and has kept it off for 5 years. He never learned to count calories. He monitors his weight and still drinks the shakes. He has returned to the full program a few times when he saw the scale sliding north but he has not regained more than 5lbs. I have a hard time imagining how he drank those shakes for the nearly 2 years for the weight loss and intermittently 5 years since but he likes it because it is easy for him.

    I call it the "I don't care" mode. It is okay to be in that mode for a day and maybe even a week but not for months and years. That is how the weight comes back for me. It is a short-sighted frame of mind because I will always care eventually. The people that I know that maintain never stop caring for long.
  • amyepdx
    amyepdx Posts: 750 Member
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    Hey now - I’ll be 60 in 2 weeks!
    I started this last weight loss effort Jan 2015 at 56 and 267 lbs. With only a 1 lb a week deficit, I lost about 60 lbs the first year, then 30
    lbs the second year, and have been going back & forth on the last 8 for 1 1/2 years. As you noted, the time is going to pass anyway but I do think you can lose a nice bit of weight the first year and that will make a huge difference! I definitely increased exercise and activity in general which is such a benefit.

    My reasons for maintaining for so long are not a factor of weight loss slowing down as much as it’s doing too many “off plan” days - vacations, celebrations, etc. But I’m still damn proud of not gaining and I’ve seen inches still going down from weight training and my newest obsession - Orangetheory!

    After I get back from my 60th birthday cruise - I’ll be gunning for those last 20 lbs (plus whatever I gain on the cruise of course!).

    Good luck - you’ve got this!

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