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The ‘guess my weight’ game...

ceiswyn
Posts: 2,256 Member
A little over a month ago, I hit my goal of 11 st 5 (BMI 24.9) and entered maintenance. Shortly thereafter TOM finished, and I dropped to a (for me) teensy 11 st 1.
Emboldened by this extreme success, I promptly sucked at maintenance and had a series of binges. Eight days ago, at the end of TOM and a short holiday break, I weighed 11 st 10 and decided to cut again.
I now weigh 11 st dead.
I know that weight is a range rather than a single value, and for me personally TOM is a fairly reliable 5 lb fluctuation. I can live with that. A 10 lb fluctuation within not much more than a week, however, I find a little more challenging, especially when I’m trying to figure out where I am relative to where I want to be
I am assuming that what I have here is a combination of TOM water loss and extra water loss die to restarting dieting.
How do other people handle this level of variability on an emotional (as well as rational) level?
And presumably this all means that although I seem to be 5 lb under my ‘goal weight’ , I still need to drop a few pounds from here in order to account for a corresponding gain in water when I stop dieting again?
Emboldened by this extreme success, I promptly sucked at maintenance and had a series of binges. Eight days ago, at the end of TOM and a short holiday break, I weighed 11 st 10 and decided to cut again.
I now weigh 11 st dead.
I know that weight is a range rather than a single value, and for me personally TOM is a fairly reliable 5 lb fluctuation. I can live with that. A 10 lb fluctuation within not much more than a week, however, I find a little more challenging, especially when I’m trying to figure out where I am relative to where I want to be

How do other people handle this level of variability on an emotional (as well as rational) level?
And presumably this all means that although I seem to be 5 lb under my ‘goal weight’ , I still need to drop a few pounds from here in order to account for a corresponding gain in water when I stop dieting again?
2
Replies
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As long as I'm in a healthy weight range, I go by what I see in the mirror rather than the number on the scale.
I'm male (so no TOM/hormones to deal with) and have about an 8 pound range of fluctuation I consider normal, mostly depending on how loose/tight I am with my diet. While I do keep an eye on the scale to make sure I'm not letting it get out of hand, as long as I'm happy with what I'm seeing in the mirror I don't sweat it much. For me, "Where I want to be" is much more about body composition and aesthetics than it is about that scale number.2 -
I think that all of what you describe simply means you have not figured out maintenance yet and nothing more. If you go back to the habits that got you to your starting weight, you will end up there. Are you counting during maintenance? It would be a good idea for a while at least, plus going slowly into it.1
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I think that all of what you describe simply means you have not figured out maintenance yet and nothing more. If you go back to the habits that got you to your starting weight, you will end up there. Are you counting during maintenance? It would be a good idea for a while at least, plus going slowly into it.
Yes, I know. I am counting, and I went slowly into it. I am working on the mental modes that led to those binges.
So, did you have anything to say on the questions that I actually asked about?0 -
My weight trend doesn't flail around as quickly or as much as my actual weight so I've been following that instead. I view daily weights as data toward the trend.
Staying in my weight range has been a mini yo-yo so I don't really get a final glycogen rebound from staying at maintenance; I get frequent water weight swings from having a slight deficit for days and then balancing that out with surpluses.2 -
As long as I'm in a healthy weight range, I go by what I see in the mirror rather than the number on the scale.
I'm male (so no TOM/hormones to deal with) and have about an 8 pound range of fluctuation I consider normal, mostly depending on how loose/tight I am with my diet. While I do keep an eye on the scale to make sure I'm not letting it get out of hand, as long as I'm happy with what I'm seeing in the mirror I don't sweat it much. For me, "Where I want to be" is much more about body composition and aesthetics than it is about that scale number.
Unfortunately I can’t really go by that because what I see in the mirror hasn’t changed in the last two stone! My top half is about as lean as it can get, and has been for a while; all these fluctuations happen in the hips and thighs where they just don’t show, especially with the amount of loose skin I have. Which means I pretty much have to go by the scale in order to stay at a healthy BMI.
Yes, that probably does mean I get a bit obsessive over the scale numbers, but being obsessive is what got me here so... In fact, trying to let up a bit on being obsessive is one of the major factors that leads to bingeing. So I figure I’m just going to have to make sure I’m being obsessive about the right things1 -
Have you got a trend weight app? What does that say is happening over all?2
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I think that all of what you describe simply means you have not figured out maintenance yet and nothing more. If you go back to the habits that got you to your starting weight, you will end up there. Are you counting during maintenance? It would be a good idea for a while at least, plus going slowly into it.
Yes, I know. I am counting, and I went slowly into it. I am working on the mental modes that led to those binges.
So, did you have anything to say on the questions that I actually asked about?
Ok, here we go: no weight is not a range for most people. It might be a range of a couple of lbs up or down per month, but that's it. The usual exception is athletes, depending on their training, and people like naturally many on this site, who do still struggle with changing their lifestyle, figuring out what maintenance means, what is the weight they are comfortable at, and how to get there. If it is a cycle of overeat-get 10 lbs - cut calories- lose 10 lbs, this means you need to give yourself more time to adapt and figure out how to settle into better habits (better being whatever works for you and your goals) and not that the average person has fluctuations of 10 lbs up and down per month.9 -
How do other people handle this level of variability on an emotional (as well as rational) level?
I think this is a key question to ask. I don't have an answer, but I can assure you that others are in similar situations. I am.
I started maintaining a little over two months ago at the beginning of July. I did fine the first six or eight weeks. My weight was up and down a little, but my trend weight was pretty much flat around the top third of my goal range. That's great. Then, about mid August, I started a gradual upward trend for a couple weeks. In my case I think it was a change in my activity level; I had been on a couple river trips and a dive trip. The first week I figured it was just a fluctuation, but when it kept going up, and when the trend looked linear, I figured, no, it's real.
I'm glad I was paying attention. I've stabilized again, but I'm out of my weight range. Rationally, I know this is no big deal. It's just a matter of getting back to the goal range, and I think I'm on track.
That said, emotionally it's discouraging. I felt really good about a steady loss for most of 2018 and getting to where I thought was a really good place. What is a person to do about that? Well, I think the only thing to do is own it and move on. Yeah, I just wrote that. Now if I can just DO it, then I won't fret over it. Wish me luck. I'm not being that successful with that.
Rationally, I know I also could evaluate whether my goal range is too low and be ok where I am stabilizing. But then what happens if it goes up again? No, I may actually reduce my goal range to keep me below some hard cap, and that may increase again. Setting a goal range is not easy. What's a reasonable target? Since BMI is population based, even using a BMI in the middle of healthy range may or may not be appropriate. I'm there, but I still think three to five more pounds of loss would be ideal. Three pounds is TINY, but it's that last three pounds, and since the loss should be slow, it would be great if the emotional side of my brain would have a chat with my rational side so my emotional side could get on the bus and we could move on with our journey.
Good luck!
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I think that all of what you describe simply means you have not figured out maintenance yet and nothing more. If you go back to the habits that got you to your starting weight, you will end up there. Are you counting during maintenance? It would be a good idea for a while at least, plus going slowly into it.
Yes, I know. I am counting, and I went slowly into it. I am working on the mental modes that led to those binges.
So, did you have anything to say on the questions that I actually asked about?
Ok, here we go: no weight is not a range for most people. It might be a range of a couple of lbs up or down per month, but that's it. The usual exception is athletes, depending on their training, and people like naturally many on this site, who do still struggle with changing their lifestyle, figuring out what maintenance means, what is the weight they are comfortable at, and how to get there. If it is a cycle of overeat-get 10 lbs - cut calories- lose 10 lbs, this means you need to give yourself more time to adapt and figure out how to settle into better habits (better being whatever works for you and your goals) and not that the average person has fluctuations of 10 lbs up and down per month.
Not many people manage to over or under eat 35,000 Calories in a week which is what the op was about.
Just because YOUR weight doesn't fluctuate, this does not make everyone else's weight not fluctuate.
That said, hopefully, by the time we hit maintenance most of us will be aware of what weight changes are within the realm of fluctuations and which ones are caused by developing habits that are not conducive to maintenance. And I assume that most of us use trending weight apps or web sites.
And if we do find ourselves having to continuously correct, while it most certainly beats NOT correcting, still, it might be worthwhile to figure out why.
Anyway. For me maintenance is just slightly looser logging via eating a wider variety of hard to log items made by others. Otherwise, at least for the first two years, I've avoided changing anything much. (I admit to not reviewing my food log as often, not being as conscientious about getting at least 1g of protein per lb of body weight, not calculating my trending weight vs fitbit vs logged calories for the past few months. But definitely still watching my trending weight. And on at least one occasion catching myself over-doing large restaurant meals and pulling back a bit as a result)7 -
TavistockToad wrote: »Have you got a trend weight app? What does that say is happening over all?
I use HappyScale, and even that’s showing a 4 lb loss in the last week, which I know isn’t ‘real’.
I struggle a bit with the trending app, though, because it struggles a lot with my monthly TOM gain
I’m considering whether, emotionally, it would be simplest for me just to lose sufficiently that my max water retention weight stays below my goal - but given that the recent 10 lb swing must have been entirely water weight loss, I’m not quite sure where that leaves me new-goal-wise1 -
Ok, here we go: no weight is not a range for most people. It might be a range of a couple of lbs up or down per month, but that's it. The usual exception is athletes, depending on their training, and people like naturally many on this site, who do still struggle with changing their lifestyle, figuring out what maintenance means, what is the weight they are comfortable at, and how to get there. If it is a cycle of overeat-get 10 lbs - cut calories- lose 10 lbs, this means you need to give yourself more time to adapt and figure out how to settle into better habits (better being whatever works for you and your goals) and not that the average person has fluctuations of 10 lbs up and down per month.
If you genuinely think that a loss of 10 lbs in a single week is fat loss from cutting calories, you should reconsider whether you should be giving advice on these boards.
My logging shows a consistent 5 lb fluctuation per month from TOM. The other 5 lb surprised me, and no, that’s not from cutting by 250 calories a day either.
Thanks to everyone else who commented7 -
Getting your mindset around maintenance is not easy. I am still challenged by it a year in. It is much more rewarding to see the numbers drop instead of having a goal of wanting to see the numbers stay the same, especially for us females.
What is your normal weight gain for TOM? If going over your goal weight (which is your upper BMI) then try and lose a bit more so that the normal fluctuations don't take you over. This might stop stressing you out as much. That or don't weigh yourself during that week so that these fluctuations are taken out of the equation altogether. Hopefully, others can offer different alternatives for what has worked for them as we all deal with things differently.Ok, here we go: no weight is not a range for most people. It might be a range of a couple of lbs up or down per month, but that's it. The usual exception is athletes, depending on their training, and people like naturally many on this site, who do still struggle with changing their lifestyle, figuring out what maintenance means, what is the weight they are comfortable at, and how to get there. If it is a cycle of overeat-get 10 lbs - cut calories- lose 10 lbs, this means you need to give yourself more time to adapt and figure out how to settle into better habits (better being whatever works for you and your goals) and not that the average person has fluctuations of 10 lbs up and down per month.
If you genuinely think that a loss of 10 lbs in a single week is fat loss from cutting calories, you should reconsider whether you should be giving advice on these boards.
Well said!
1 -
Ok, here we go: no weight is not a range for most people. It might be a range of a couple of lbs up or down per month, but that's it. The usual exception is athletes, depending on their training, and people like naturally many on this site, who do still struggle with changing their lifestyle, figuring out what maintenance means, what is the weight they are comfortable at, and how to get there. If it is a cycle of overeat-get 10 lbs - cut calories- lose 10 lbs, this means you need to give yourself more time to adapt and figure out how to settle into better habits (better being whatever works for you and your goals) and not that the average person has fluctuations of 10 lbs up and down per month.
If you genuinely think that a loss of 10 lbs in a single week is fat loss from cutting calories, you should reconsider whether you should be giving advice on these boards.
My logging shows a consistent 5 lb fluctuation per month from TOM. The other 5 lb surprised me, and no, that’s not from cutting by 250 calories a day either.
Thanks to everyone else who commented
I have no idea what cutting for you means, you could be bingeing for 5 weeks, then starving yourself for the next which is pretty typical yoyo, and what many people are doing.
Assuming you had put on 10 lbs of water and then lost them in a few days, this would basically mean there is something very wrong with your circulation and a reason to visit a cardiologist ASAP. Yes there is of course such a thing as a water retention, but not at this scale. There is no dr that will tell you this is possible without a medical problem, which I know because I have actually asked.9 -
If you genuinely think that a loss of 10 lbs in a single week is fat loss from cutting calories, you should reconsider whether you should be giving advice on these boards.
My logging shows a consistent 5 lb fluctuation per month from TOM. The other 5 lb surprised me, and no, that’s not from cutting by 250 calories a day either.
Thanks to everyone else who commented
I have no idea what cutting for you means, you could be bingeing for 5 weeks, then starving yourself for the next which is pretty typical yoyo, and what many people are doing.
So you made a bunch of unwarranted assumptions. Hopefully you have learned not to do that.Assuming you had put on 10 lbs of water and then lost them in a few days, this would basically mean there is something very wrong with your circulation and a reason to visit a cardiologist ASAP. Yes there is of course such a thing as a water retention, but not at this scale. There is no dr that will tell you this is possible without a medical problem, which I know because I have actually asked.
DID I put on 10lb of water over the month? How would one tell? Certainly I’ve just lost 10lb of water, but 5lb of that was TOM and I don’t know how much water weight loss is ‘normal’ when restarting dieting. Which is where we came in...5 -
My weight is a range of 4 kg, I don't even try to guess it. I have a lowest value and a highest value. When I maintained for a while, I tried not to go over my highest value or under my lowest value. Anything in between was fair game. As soon as I was even 100 grams over my highest value, I kicked back into dieting mode until I hit the middle of my range. Maintenance for me was basically a mini yoyo (I wasn't logging so it had to be).2
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amusedmonkey wrote: »My weight is a range of 4 kg, I don't even try to guess it. I have a lowest value and a highest value. When I maintained for a while, I tried not to go over my highest value or under my lowest value. Anything in between was fair game. As soon as I was even 100 grams over my highest value, I kicked back into dieting mode until I hit the middle of my range. Maintenance for me was basically a mini yoyo (I wasn't logging so it had to be).
Yes, that is exactly what I intend to do. But if I can fluctuate 10 lb in water weight, that makes it a bit tricky to figure out a sensible range!0 -
amusedmonkey wrote: »My weight is a range of 4 kg, I don't even try to guess it. I have a lowest value and a highest value. When I maintained for a while, I tried not to go over my highest value or under my lowest value. Anything in between was fair game. As soon as I was even 100 grams over my highest value, I kicked back into dieting mode until I hit the middle of my range. Maintenance for me was basically a mini yoyo (I wasn't logging so it had to be).
Yes, that is exactly what I intend to do. But if I can fluctuate 10 lb in water weight, that makes it a bit tricky to figure out a sensible range!
4 kg is about 9 lbs, so not that far off from your target, and if you're logging it shouldn't mean too much actual gain. Just set the absolute highest weight you're willing to go as your upper limit, set 10 lbs lower as your lower limit, and set your calories to the middle of the range then trust the process.7 -
Hmmm... yes, I see. Then I basically log my weight but ignore it unless it breaches one of the bounds...4
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Hmmm... yes, I see. Then I basically log my weight but ignore it unless it breaches one of the bounds...
Until it breaches one of the bounds and the explanation and reasoning as to why this took place (based on your logging and knowledge of yourself and what you've been doing) justifies taking action.
"have been frequently over-(or under)-eating these past few weeks" = justifies taking action.
"my food logging is on point and I've recently started a new exercise class and every muscle hurts" = no justification for action.
"I have no explanation based on everything I know about myself" = go see doctor.
And by the way, I particularly applaud that your reaction was a 250 deficit. So many people over-react to issues that is refreshing to see a measured response!5 -
Well, clearly the main adjustment that needs to be made here is in my head rather than my calories, and overreacting would just exacerbate the issues there! And once that’s sorted, I’m in no big hurry to lose those few pounds again. I got time. A lifetime8
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I would agree with logging your weight, but taking action when it moves out of what I call my "scream" weight. When you hit that high number, and when it stays there for a bit - three days, a week, whatever you set as not right in your head - then find a way to cut calories. I am in my third year of maintenance and what best works for me when I have gone above that number and stayed there for a bit is to simply cut out any food after dinner. While, yes, that's cutting calories, it works better psychologically for me because it's stopping a habit and not counting and feeling deprived. When my weight is back within range for about a week, I return to my small snacks after dinner. The OP's main question, I think, was how to emotionally handle the fluctuations, etc. that go with maintenance, and I agree with others on here. Maintenance is not just a number or a range, but a mindset. It sounds funny, but once you have a handle on the fact that you will fluctuate and that you know what to do when it goes above your scream weight, you psychologically just have to let go. You know what to do, you know the scale sometimes lies, and you just do what you need to do. I do sometimes freak out when that scream weight appears, to be honest, but I calm down very quickly. Maintenance should not be about white-knuckling or life won't be any fun.6
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Hmmm... yes, I see. Then I basically log my weight but ignore it unless it breaches one of the bounds...
Depends.
Recently I gained 5lbs that took me over my boundary. But it was from a very large and salty meal. No action required, within a couple of days it's gone.
I might also gain 10lbs from a dose of "all-inclusive-holiday-itis". Mostly water weight but definitely some fat gain, some action required but no real rush.
It gets easier with time - you start to understand what is normal for you.
Maybe think of it as vigilance but not being on high alert all the time?5
This discussion has been closed.
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