Anyone use weight lost in past to predict calorie requirements going forward?

Kdp2015

I’m set to lightly active and don’t log any exercise. I don’t do any purposeful exercise but do garden for 3 hours everyday (weeding, pruning, raking etc) Anyway I’m set to lose 0.5lbs a week but have lost 4lbs in last 2 weeks. I tried setting to sedentary and eating back some of exercise calories but don’t trust the predicted burn.
Can I use the weight I’ve lost and calories consumed in last 2 weeks to work out how many calories I need to lose only half pound weekly going forward?
ETA if it helps I’m having 1600-1800 per day (meant to be 1570) 5’10 female 149lbs
And yes I weigh, measure and track everything

kommodevaran

You have to look at your weight over several weeks to see a trend. Your weight fluctuates naturally, and 4 pounds in such a short time is most likely mostly water weight.

Lillymoo01

You aren't sedentary with 3 hours of gardening a day. I'd up your activity level to lightly active and see how you go with that for a month. After only 2 weeks it is too soon to work out what your overall trend in fat loss versus fluctuations, especially as you can decrease your amount of water retention is the first week.

Kdp2015

Thanks, I’m not really dieting though - I eat now as I did before. Although you are quiet right it may be water weight, problem is with not much to lose I wanted a bit more precision going forward - I don’t want to lose water (or muscle) quickly just to get to a certain weight quickly

middlehaitch

You probably lost a pound or two of water weight in these first 2 weeks, as well as some fat.

Hang on through one full menstrual cycle (another 3-4 weeks) eating at the calories you were given, then assess using your accrued data.
(If you continue with a high loss adjust before then)

Two weeks really is too soon to define any true results.

Cheers, h.

Kdp2015

Thanks everyone.
For clarity (and I should have mentioned earlier, sorry) I’ve been losing weight for a while it’s just I had a break from tracking so I only have calorie entries for two weeks - I have weight entries for much longer.

AnnPT77

If you have data for at least a full menstrual cycle, by all means use your own loss rate to figure your calorie intake. Once you have enough data to get a clear & valid picture, it's the most accurate way.