Marathon Pace?? - Target Goal
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runnermom419
Posts: 366 Member
How do you figure out what pace you want to run your marathon in?
I am training for #3 coming up in September. My first marathon was in 2015 and was a 4:56. Second was 2016 and came in at 5:20 (injured my ankle at the half way mark and struggled the remaining miles).
I recently PR’d my half time at 2:01:53 and my 5K at 25:58 (both within the last 2 months). I SHOULD be capable of running faster than a 4:56, but have no clue where I want to be for the full. Would a 4:40 be too aggressive or could I potentially go faster? I don’t want to “just finish”, I’m striving for a PR on this race.
I am training for #3 coming up in September. My first marathon was in 2015 and was a 4:56. Second was 2016 and came in at 5:20 (injured my ankle at the half way mark and struggled the remaining miles).
I recently PR’d my half time at 2:01:53 and my 5K at 25:58 (both within the last 2 months). I SHOULD be capable of running faster than a 4:56, but have no clue where I want to be for the full. Would a 4:40 be too aggressive or could I potentially go faster? I don’t want to “just finish”, I’m striving for a PR on this race.
2
Replies
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i would aim for 5 - but keep a pace chart for second half for say 4:30 - that would give you a 4:45 - but see how you feel - honestly, its hard and i'm never been good at hitting my goal times1
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If you want to PR, I'd shoot for 4:45.
According to RW's calculator, if your doing 30 mpw, a 4:31 is possible with your recent races.
At 20 mpw, 4:33
At 15 mpw, 4:35 (not that I would run a marathon at only 15 mpw, that's not enough for a good 5k
)
https://www.runnersworld.com/uk/training/a761681/rws-race-time-predictor/
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scorpio516 wrote: »If you want to PR, I'd shoot for 4:45.
According to RW's calculator, if your doing 30 mpw, a 4:31 is possible with your recent races.
At 20 mpw, 4:33
At 15 mpw, 4:35 (not that I would run a marathon at only 15 mpw, that's not enough for a good 5k )
https://www.runnersworld.com/uk/training/a761681/rws-race-time-predictor/
Geeze, I'm running 30 or so MPW right now. I think I am going to shoot for 4:45 and see how training goes.0 -
My PR for a half is 2:08 and I ran a 4:28 marathon. Its possible as long as you train for it!0
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My PR for marathon is 4:45 last year when I was running around 60 mpw, PR for HM is 2:02, and PR for 5K is 21:24. All my marathons have been in the 5-6 hr. range so far this year. I should be faster based on race predictors, but they just are not realistic. I wouldn't put too much stock in them.0
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According to Jack Daniels' VDOT Calculator (https://runsmartproject.com/calculator/) your marathon should be around 4:11 (based on your HM time). It also predicts your 5k will be around 26:29 so you see it isn't exact but it is as close as anything I've found. So, no, I don't think 4:40 would be aggressive at all.
Which marathon are your running? The weather in September could be a factor as well.0 -
How many miles a week do you run? What plan do you follow? It makes a huge difference what your base mileage is and what your training is like. The predictors like Jack Daniels and McMillan assume you are running 70 mpw and doing a training plan with quality workouts. If you're running less or only running easy, then you need to add time.
For me, running an average of 40-45 during training, peaking at 50-56 mpw, I can double my half time and add 15-20 minutes. My first marathon my HM time was 2:00:50 and my marathon was 4:21:14. For my most recent, my half time was 1:53:05 and my marathon was 4:01:30.
One way to see if your goal pace is at all feasible is to do some marathon pace runs or do MP miles at the end of your long run. Pfitzinger has some 16 mile runs with 12 at MP. Higdon does 10 mile MP runs and also fast finish long runs where the last 1/4 is at MP.0 -
I think 4:40 is a doable goal. There are tons of predictors out there, but they do make assumptions of very focused and strict training. I think that the formula of doubling your half and adding 15-20 minutes is pretty solid. That said, shaving over 30 minutes off of your PR in one attempt is also a pretty tall order. I think that I would stick with the 4:40 goal and possibly make up time at the end. I am of the opinion that if you have it in you, it will be there in the end. It's way too easy to start out too fast and fizzle. I have run negative splits in most of my marathons by starting off at a more conservative pace. In my PR race, my pace for the last 6 miles was 40 seconds per mile faster than my first 6, which might indicate that I started out TOO slow, but I was thrilled with my result and am still not sure that I could have achieved that same result had I started out any faster.
Oh, and as stated above, fast finish long runs are a great training tool if you are looking to PR. I always try to make my final miles faster than my average for a long run. I think the biggest factor for a successful marathon is quality training. I know that sounds obvious, but you would be surprised at how many people take it easy on themselves in training and expect miracle results in races. It just doesn't happen. Remember the old saying " Easy training, tough race. Tough training, easy race". Good luck!1 -
spiriteagle99 wrote: »How many miles a week do you run? What plan do you follow? It makes a huge difference what your base mileage is and what your training is like. The predictors like Jack Daniels and McMillan assume you are running 70 mpw and doing a training plan with quality workouts. If you're running less or only running easy, then you need to add time.
For me, running an average of 40-45 during training, peaking at 50-56 mpw, I can double my half time and add 15-20 minutes. My first marathon my HM time was 2:00:50 and my marathon was 4:21:14. For my most recent, my half time was 1:53:05 and my marathon was 4:01:30.
One way to see if your goal pace is at all feasible is to do some marathon pace runs or do MP miles at the end of your long run. Pfitzinger has some 16 mile runs with 12 at MP. Higdon does 10 mile MP runs and also fast finish long runs where the last 1/4 is at MP.
Right now, I am running 30 miles a week. I am writing my own plan; and will build up to a few weeks of 50ish miles.
Yeah, I will have to throw MP at the end of my long runs once they get up there. Right now, I have no problem running 14 miles at a 10 minute mile. But 26.2 at a 10:40ish? We'll have to wait and see if that's feasible.0 -
runnermom419 wrote: »spiriteagle99 wrote: »How many miles a week do you run? What plan do you follow? It makes a huge difference what your base mileage is and what your training is like. The predictors like Jack Daniels and McMillan assume you are running 70 mpw and doing a training plan with quality workouts. If you're running less or only running easy, then you need to add time.
For me, running an average of 40-45 during training, peaking at 50-56 mpw, I can double my half time and add 15-20 minutes. My first marathon my HM time was 2:00:50 and my marathon was 4:21:14. For my most recent, my half time was 1:53:05 and my marathon was 4:01:30.
One way to see if your goal pace is at all feasible is to do some marathon pace runs or do MP miles at the end of your long run. Pfitzinger has some 16 mile runs with 12 at MP. Higdon does 10 mile MP runs and also fast finish long runs where the last 1/4 is at MP.
Right now, I am running 30 miles a week. I am writing my own plan; and will build up to a few weeks of 50ish miles.
Yeah, I will have to throw MP at the end of my long runs once they get up there. Right now, I have no problem running 14 miles at a 10 minute mile. But 26.2 at a 10:40ish? We'll have to wait and see if that's feasible.
Why?0 -
runnermom419 wrote: »spiriteagle99 wrote: »How many miles a week do you run? What plan do you follow? It makes a huge difference what your base mileage is and what your training is like. The predictors like Jack Daniels and McMillan assume you are running 70 mpw and doing a training plan with quality workouts. If you're running less or only running easy, then you need to add time.
For me, running an average of 40-45 during training, peaking at 50-56 mpw, I can double my half time and add 15-20 minutes. My first marathon my HM time was 2:00:50 and my marathon was 4:21:14. For my most recent, my half time was 1:53:05 and my marathon was 4:01:30.
One way to see if your goal pace is at all feasible is to do some marathon pace runs or do MP miles at the end of your long run. Pfitzinger has some 16 mile runs with 12 at MP. Higdon does 10 mile MP runs and also fast finish long runs where the last 1/4 is at MP.
Right now, I am running 30 miles a week. I am writing my own plan; and will build up to a few weeks of 50ish miles.
Yeah, I will have to throw MP at the end of my long runs once they get up there. Right now, I have no problem running 14 miles at a 10 minute mile. But 26.2 at a 10:40ish? We'll have to wait and see if that's feasible.
Why?
Why not?0 -
runnermom419 wrote: »runnermom419 wrote: »spiriteagle99 wrote: »How many miles a week do you run? What plan do you follow? It makes a huge difference what your base mileage is and what your training is like. The predictors like Jack Daniels and McMillan assume you are running 70 mpw and doing a training plan with quality workouts. If you're running less or only running easy, then you need to add time.
For me, running an average of 40-45 during training, peaking at 50-56 mpw, I can double my half time and add 15-20 minutes. My first marathon my HM time was 2:00:50 and my marathon was 4:21:14. For my most recent, my half time was 1:53:05 and my marathon was 4:01:30.
One way to see if your goal pace is at all feasible is to do some marathon pace runs or do MP miles at the end of your long run. Pfitzinger has some 16 mile runs with 12 at MP. Higdon does 10 mile MP runs and also fast finish long runs where the last 1/4 is at MP.
Right now, I am running 30 miles a week. I am writing my own plan; and will build up to a few weeks of 50ish miles.
Yeah, I will have to throw MP at the end of my long runs once they get up there. Right now, I have no problem running 14 miles at a 10 minute mile. But 26.2 at a 10:40ish? We'll have to wait and see if that's feasible.
Why?
Why not?
i guess the question is - what do you think you can do in creating your own schedule that any of the available training programs won't do for you - they are typically well tested and used in the running community for a reason1 -
runnermom419 wrote: »spiriteagle99 wrote: »How many miles a week do you run? What plan do you follow? It makes a huge difference what your base mileage is and what your training is like. The predictors like Jack Daniels and McMillan assume you are running 70 mpw and doing a training plan with quality workouts. If you're running less or only running easy, then you need to add time.
For me, running an average of 40-45 during training, peaking at 50-56 mpw, I can double my half time and add 15-20 minutes. My first marathon my HM time was 2:00:50 and my marathon was 4:21:14. For my most recent, my half time was 1:53:05 and my marathon was 4:01:30.
One way to see if your goal pace is at all feasible is to do some marathon pace runs or do MP miles at the end of your long run. Pfitzinger has some 16 mile runs with 12 at MP. Higdon does 10 mile MP runs and also fast finish long runs where the last 1/4 is at MP.
Right now, I am running 30 miles a week. I am writing my own plan; and will build up to a few weeks of 50ish miles.
Yeah, I will have to throw MP at the end of my long runs once they get up there. Right now, I have no problem running 14 miles at a 10 minute mile. But 26.2 at a 10:40ish? We'll have to wait and see if that's feasible.
Why?
Because I dislike the majority of the plans I've seen out there. Because on Hal Higdon's plans, there are mid week 10 mile runs that I cannot get in due to work commitments. Because I have races this summer that interfere with a plan. Because I have other classes and exercises that I enjoy doing and I can fit them in easier when writing my own plan.
I have my sister guiding me a bit as well. She's only ever done her own plans and is a BQ'er on every full she's done.0 -
deannalfisher wrote: »runnermom419 wrote: »runnermom419 wrote: »spiriteagle99 wrote: »How many miles a week do you run? What plan do you follow? It makes a huge difference what your base mileage is and what your training is like. The predictors like Jack Daniels and McMillan assume you are running 70 mpw and doing a training plan with quality workouts. If you're running less or only running easy, then you need to add time.
For me, running an average of 40-45 during training, peaking at 50-56 mpw, I can double my half time and add 15-20 minutes. My first marathon my HM time was 2:00:50 and my marathon was 4:21:14. For my most recent, my half time was 1:53:05 and my marathon was 4:01:30.
One way to see if your goal pace is at all feasible is to do some marathon pace runs or do MP miles at the end of your long run. Pfitzinger has some 16 mile runs with 12 at MP. Higdon does 10 mile MP runs and also fast finish long runs where the last 1/4 is at MP.
Right now, I am running 30 miles a week. I am writing my own plan; and will build up to a few weeks of 50ish miles.
Yeah, I will have to throw MP at the end of my long runs once they get up there. Right now, I have no problem running 14 miles at a 10 minute mile. But 26.2 at a 10:40ish? We'll have to wait and see if that's feasible.
Why?
Why not?
i guess the question is - what do you think you can do in creating your own schedule that any of the available training programs won't do for you - they are typically well tested and used in the running community for a reason
That hasn't been my experience at all. When I started making my own plans, my next marathon was 1:47 faster than my previous PR. I'm not exactly fast in any circumstances, but I do much better on my own made plans than on anybody some else's plan.1 -
Lots of people BQ. That doesn't mean they got the best out of themselves.
I guess it doesn't matter if you are not serious about the marathon (as in trying to see how fast you can be). But with your HM pace you are seriously undershooting your potential marathon pace. A decent plan (and maybe even a coach) could get you there.
Of course I'm not suggesting the only reason to run a marathon is to go faster. Folks run for many reasons and I'm not trying to discourage any of them. But with your original question it seems like you want more.
Anyway, good luck. Have fun with it.0 -
Lots of people BQ. That doesn't mean they got the best out of themselves.
I guess it doesn't matter if you are not serious about the marathon (as in trying to see how fast you can be). But with your HM pace you are seriously undershooting your potential marathon pace. A decent plan (and maybe even a coach) could get you there.
Of course I'm not suggesting the only reason to run a marathon is to go faster. Folks run for many reasons and I'm not trying to discourage any of them. But with your original question it seems like you want more.
Anyway, good luck. Have fun with it.
My two most recent PR's came off of no training plan (ie: writing my own). Otherwise, I hadn't PR'd in 4 years. I followed plans religiously, and even had a coach for a while. And nothing. Not even close in the last 4 years.
I'm pretty sure taking bits and pieces of different plans along with taking advice of fellow runners won't harm me.1 -
I use Greg Maclin's calculator (link: http://www.mymarathonpace.com/Running_Calculators.html), which I really like because it's quite conservative (it has a setting for how aggressive you want to be with your prediction based on mpw) and also has settings for heat & humidity. Heat on race day is the bane of my existence.
According to Maclin's calculator you should, under ideal conditions and running as you do at less than 40mpw, be able to run a 4:35. That's 10:30ish pace. That sounds about appropriate to me.
But if you have doubts, or if the weather isn't cooperating, starting out conservatively for the first half and then speeding up gradually after that if you still feel good would be the way to go.
As far as plans... for the most part, most of them have more similarities than differences. In descending order of importance, training for long distances is a matter of: A) building up mileage;
training at race pace and/or lactate threshold; C) Getting adequate recovery; D) speed work. 1
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