5 week weight after closing diary

Sheisinlove109
Sheisinlove109 Posts: 516 Member
in Getting Started
Is there a graph that shows the history of MFP 5 week estimated weight...would like to know if I was close or not.

Replies

  • PAV8888
    PAV8888 Posts: 14,252 Member
    The prediction runs multiplies today's energy imbalance by 35 days and divides by 3500 for lbs.

    If you don't eat back exercise calories because you don't consider them accurate... it is irrelevant because it does counts them even if you don't. If you don't have the same energy imbalance every day... it is also irrelevant.

    WHAT IS VERY RELEVANT: is looking at your WEIGHT TREND and how it has changed 35 days later.
    And comparing that to the actual energy imbalances that were estimated based on your logging and MFP.

    Did you record 16,000 Cal worth of deficits, and your weight trend changed by 3.75lbs? If this was based on, say, eating 54250 Cal over the 35 days, this would mean that your TDEE (based on the way you're counting your calories eaten) is "manifesting" as about 1925 Cal. And that you are creating an effective deficit of about 375 Cal a day when eating the 1550 that you're recording.

    And this now DOES matter because you can use it to make decisions about eating back exercise calories, or the size of your deficit, or your expectations with a view of ensuring that your efforts continue to be sustainable!

    **all numbers pulled out of the air and for demonstration purposes only!
  • AnnPT77
    AnnPT77 Posts: 34,223 Member
    The question is not whether you were close. It's whether its estimates were close.

    If you take your weight 5 weeks ago, subtract your current weight, divide by the number of weeks, and compare it to the weight loss goal rate you put in your profile, you'll have a very rough idea how accurate MFP's estimate was, assuming you stuck to its calorie recommendations exactly (including eating back a reasonable estimate of exercise calories).

    If you lost weight over those 5 weeks (assuming that was your goal), and didn't do it so fast you created unnecessary health risk, you did the right thing, no matter what MFP's estimate was. You're a successful human, it's just a silly statistical estimation algorithm. :flowerforyou:

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