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A good test to determine if you are undereating to lose?

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In learning about the issue of glycogen and water and how that can cause the appearance of rapid weight gain after a "day of indulgence", it occurred to me that perhaps this provides a way to test whether one is, indeed, eating too few calories for ideal weight loss.

Let's say that I have a goal of 1300 net calories per day. I'm losing weight but worry that I may be in too big a caloric deficit because maybe my weight loss is a bit too fast (and normally I'd be delighted but I'm getting an education on MFP). If I am, in fact, depleting my glycogen stores significantly then, in theory, I could test that by deliberately overeating one day and checking to see if I gain a few pounds the next morning. Right?

And if so, how much of an "instant overnight weight gain" would indicate this? E.g. if I gained 5 lbs the next day, would that suggest my glycogen was too depleted?