MFP predictions

VegjoyP

At the end of the day when we close out our diaries, it estimates the weight you will be at in 5 weeks. I have been watching it and curious as to other peoples experience with this. I do not eat all the calories back it says because it is definitely to much for me, even though the projected weight is low.

Ann262

I am skeptical about its accuracy TBH

BayInTheWoods

It's a mathematical formula, is all. The opening line of "of every day was like today" (or whatever it is - I haven't actually closed out my journal in ages) is the clue: if the ratio between your weight, calories in, and calories out was EXACTLY the same for the next five weeks, you'd be at that number.

Things change from day to day, of course - we eat different things, for starters, and TDEE also varies - even something as simple as taking an extra lap around the block, or having your kids / spouse / dog / whomever go get the mail instead of you getting it yourself have an effect, so the odds of you burning EXACTLY the same amount of calories from day to day are slim; stress levels and sleep play a role, too, and if you regularly get good sleep and have relatively stable stress levels, I envy the heck out of you.

That said, if you are consistent with everything you can control, it does provide a reasonable ballpark.

ReenieHJ

Nope. I don't place any value in it at all but then I don't adhere strictly to the logging in calories and such(so that'd probably make a difference Lol). I did in the beginning but it still didn't seem to hold true for me.

crb426

I use it as a guide for those days when I'm eating more than I should.

As long as it says in 5 weeks I'll weigh the same or less than I do now, I know I'm alright (either meeting maintenance calories or below). If the number is above, then I know I went too far with the food that day and risk gaining.

bubus05

I think it does say 'if every day was like this', or something along those lines. It is kind of impossible to make every day the same, it is for me. So it may be true, I doubt anyone ever tested the theory.

sijomial

With one simple adjustment after a few weeks to account for inaccuracies in my food and exercise logging I lost weight right on target at 1lb / week.
But the daily projection didn't work for me as I didn't eat to the same deficit goal every day, most of my days were at maintenance calories so my prediction would be either no loss or a massive loss.

I aimed for simplicity and consistency in logging rather than absolute accuracy. Did I lose consistently at and aveage 1800 + exercise calories or was I in fact eating 2000 + exercise calories?
Don't really care as the goal was a healthy rate of weight loss and logging was a tool to achieve that and not a goal in itself.

If your calorie goal doesn't over a significant period of time produce the expected results it could be you are an outlier or simply your logging accuracy isn't very good with your food logging being a far bigger contributor to error than exercise logging.

Many people also don't lose weight in a linear fashion, it might even out over an extended time period but be erratic along the way.

AnnPT77

If a person's very consistent in their habits, and their calorie needs are close to the average person of their demographic, it might be close. It's just a statistical estimate, based on a one-day sample of error-prone data.

I'm erratic in my habits (calorie banking), and it routinely thinks I'll gain weight at a calorie intake level at which I know I'll slowly lose, and that's when I've falsely told it I'm active in daily life when I'm actually sedentary (or very close to it), and when I'm eating back all my exercise calories. (This scenario is kind of rare, IMU.)

It's more about whether a person is consistent, and close to average, rather than about whether MFP is accurate or not. Most people are close to average, kind of by definition.