A couple of interesting statistics... February 2024

Alsison

I put in the work this month, and I ended up bang on my goal for February!! It wasn't exactly a direct line getting there, but I got there nonetheless!!

I am a bit of a math geek, and a steadfast tracker, so I thought I would share this in the hopes it might motivate others to stick with it!

Total calories consumed = 45,082
Total calories expended = 60,901
Deficit = 15,819

So if you take that 15,819 and divide it by the conventional 3500 calories per pound, my expected weight loss would be 4.5 pounds.

Actual weight loss 5 pounds (so pretty darn close). I guess there must be some truth to this theory!!

Retroguy2000

That's great, both the tracking and the result.

Your expended number, did that come from HRM or TDEE estimates + workout estimates?

The minor discrepancy of 0.5 pounds is likely noise and/or water weight, but just in case, have you double checked some of your frequent foods to ensure their calorie entries here are correct, and that your serving sizes are correct?

Alsison

@retroguy2000, thank you!

I used the Body Weight Planner from the NIH to calculate my forecasted daily weight loss and calorie expenditures for 2024.
https://www.niddk.nih.gov/bwp

I am pretty diligent about my calorie tracking so I am guessing if there is a discrepancy it is from extra calories burned during exercise.

Retroguy2000

Ah, right, so e.g. looking at that link the default option is a 1.6 multiplier to BMR, which easily accounts for the noise.

It's actually surprising to me that the original estimate of calories expended is so close to your results, given the coarseness of that BMR multiplier, and the baseline assumptions of statistical muscle mass etc. to come up with the initial BMR estimate.

What you can infer from your data is your actual TDEE. The 60K number you posted in the OP was an initial estimate. Now you know what it actually is. However, I would suggest you discount the first week, as that weight loss may be mostly water. So track your loss since then, and that informs your current TDEE.

I assume you'll keep tracking this data? I do. Ofc bear in mind as you lose weight, your TDEE will likely drop slightly too.

cmriverside

Yeah, I'd suggest recalculating your TDEE at the beginning of each month - or every ten pounds of weight loss. It's not likely going to continue quite that predictably, but that's a pretty cool graphic. :flowerforyou:

mtaratoot

@Alsison

Alison,

That's so nice to see. You provided yourself with an estimate, you trusted the process, you collected the data, and you observed the results. Keep sticking to it. Trust the gauges. Log your calories in and out as best you can, and as mentioned above, reset your calorie goal from time to time.

I've never graphed my results quite like this, but when I've looked at the numbers, I tend to get the result I would have expected just from adding up calories in and out - as long as the logging was complete, accurate, and honest (both in and out).

Alsison

@cmriverside, that is the beauty of the NHI planner, it accounts for your TDEE changing with your weight loss.

@retroguy2000, I have been doing this since the start of the New Year, so my February results will be real. Interesting point about my TDEE.

Below is the data with my actuals included. The predicted weight loss, suggested calorie intake, and daily expenditures came from the NHI Planner.



You can see clearly the weekends are where I tend to be a bit less strict on my intake (largely to do with the fact that I cut out alcohol on the weekdays).

I also did a fast at the end of the month to finish strong.

Alsison

@mtaratoot, thank you. It feels good to trust the process, and see actual data to back it up.

Retroguy2000

Right, so now that you know your current TDEE, let's call it 62,582 (your calories consumed + 5 * 3500), that should be your baseline going forwards. Forget the NHI estimate of 60,901, that served its purpose, and now you know your own personalized actual result.

With your data, you can easily recalculate your current TDEE continuously based on a rolling multi-week average of your calories consumed and weight change.

PAV8888

Remember that estimates are estimates. Hall's research is also estimates. Population level curves.

Your individual closeness to the curve can and will vary

Your goal is to have information that allows you to make estimates as to how many calories you can eat while continuing to head in the direction you want (at least that was mine)

It doesn't matter how close you match the theoretical model.

What matters is knowing your current discrepancy if any!

And well done! And I like the graph too!!!🤣

Alsison

@Retroguy2000, that is perfect! Thank you.
@pav8888, that makes sense to me!

My geekiness will continue on to March...

ddsb1111

I’m so impressed. You probably know yourself better now than ever and it will be a resource like you can’t imagine moving forward. Congrats on your success! The hard part moving forward will be others asking for advice and (many) never taking it. But, food for thought, you never know whose life you might change.

Alsison

So then taking what I have learned here, my TDEE 62,582/29 days in February = 2,158 per day.

I would love to hit 200 by the end of March, so that is an additional 7 pounds loss.

2,158 x 31 days in March = 66,898,
66,898 - (7*3500) = 42,398
42,398/31 = 1,367 rounding down.

I guess I have found my new calorie goal!

Retroguy2000

I'm sure you've considered this, but that's a substantially larger deficit than you had in February. Are you sure you can manage that? I'm not saying it's too much. Just noting it's quite a bit higher. That's a daily intake of 1,554 in February and 1,367 in March. That's 12% fewer calories intake than last month.

Make sure to get plenty of protein, and are you lifting, to help preserve the muscle you have?

Alsison

@Retroguy2000, you make a good point. All of it goes out the window if I don't stick with it.

And yes, lifting 3 x per week, plus 1 x per week Pilates.

Protein will definitely be key.

PAV8888

Is your new desired rate closer to 1% of body weight per week lost or closer to 0.5% of body weight lost per week? Is it exceeding 1%? Is it creating a deficit that excess 25% of tdee? How far are you from the "normal" weight range? Will speeding things up help give you time to develop and embed additional new strategies or habits that will help you lose now but also maintain the loss in the future? Enquiring minds want to know!!!

Alsison

@PAV8888, It would work out to 0.78% of body weight per week, and the deficit would by 36.6% of TDEE.

What all that means, I have no idea...

It took a long time to put all this weight on, so it is only right that it will take a long time to come off.

If I can lose 5 pounds a month eating on average 1554 calories then maybe I just stick with that.

My "ideal weight" is 165 pounds, so that is 42 pounds to go. My original goal I set for myself at the start of 2024 was to reach that goal before we ring in 2025.

PAV8888

Rules of thumb More people tolerate 0.5% loss rates than 1.5%. 25% (effective) rate while obese, 20% while closer to normal weight are all aggressive. The more aggressive the more risk of problems.

Less aggressive but in the right direction? More time to embed long term new behaviors and layer in things that will prevent regain.

Sure. Counter arguments exist. With nutritional support and psychological resources both fast and not so fast weight losers did equally badly after a couple of years

But since I didn't have all those external resources and it was a "discover yourself by yourself experiment" and I wanted to extend to the maximum the time frame during which I was doing goodly as opposed to once again as in the past be a part of the majority who regain everything plus a bit swiftly, I decided to play for time... most of the time

My sage advice is seek the grooves that work. Work the grooves. Don't be afraid to adjust when you jump out of the groove. Continuity of effort, compliance most of the time, and making it as easy as possible to keep staying in the game are the names of the game!

if it ain't broke...

Alsison

@pav8888, thank you for the discussion. It definitely gave me some things to think about.

I guess it is just really an ongoing experiment with what works!