5 week projection

V1228

Does anyone know if the 5 week projection is accurate?

AnnPT77

It can't be. It says "If every day is like today . . . ". No two days are alike, right?

Seriously, the real thing: The calorie goal MFP gives you would be accurate for the given weight loss rate for the statistically average person who logs every single thing perfectly correctly, and does the amount of daily life movement that exactly correlates with one of of the few activity level settings.

But:
* You're not an average, you're a unique individual. Individuals vary from average. Most are close, but a rare few can be surprisingly far off average. You won't know for sure where you fall until you have 4-6 weeks (whole menstrual cycles) of weight and carefully-logged calorie intake data. At that point, you can average the loss/calorie levels over that whole time period, and adjust your calorie goal to be more individual and accurate.

* Logging is approximate, even if we're meticulous. It's a pretty good estimate; that's all. Pretty good is good enough to work, but it's not exact. Think about it: One apple is sweeter than the next. One piece of meat give up more fat in the oven so isn't in what we eat, compared to another. And so forth.

* We move different amounts every day in daily life. It averages out, mostly, over time . . . but it may not correlate with one of that small number of activity levels.

* MFP intends that we add exercise when we do some, and eat those calories too (or sync a fitness tracker). That's also an estimate. Again, it can be close enough to work fine, but not exact.

If you treat the 5-weeks estimate as just a fun thing that may or may not be right, you'll be fine. If you treat it as your definition of success or progress, that's maybe not so good.

For me, as one of the "surprisingly far from average" people, MFP's calorie needs estimate for me is off by 25% or so. That's rare, but it can happen. Once I figured that out (by averaging over several weeks) and adjusted my calorie goal based on results, my weight loss rate became pretty predictable. Day to day is/was up and down, but the overall trend was quite accurate.

Bottom line, though: Calorie counting can work, lead to weight loss, if a person applies it and understands the process. The estimates are plenty close enough. I lost around 50 pounds starting 9 years ago; have been at a healthy weight for 8+ years since.

Best wishes!

Rxman1971

I find it somewhat accurate