Is the weight loss prediction accurate?

miacaseyy
miacaseyy Posts: 1 Member
in Health and Weight Loss
I'm on a deficit and I ate just a little over the budget today, when I pressed finish it came up with something that said ''if everyday were like this, you'd be at ____ in _ weeks' Do you guys think these predictions are accurate? I feel like I ate a lot more than regularly today...

Replies

  • Retroguy2000
    Retroguy2000 Posts: 1,926 Member
    No. You get that message if you're completing your daily diary. I have never done that. It's not necessary.
  • Alatariel75
    Alatariel75 Posts: 18,554 Member
    It's a gimmick basic math equation, based on a very simple calculation, meant to be motivating. Basically it looks at what it calculates your maintenance to be, then subtracts your net calories (day's intake - output), then multiplies that by the 35 days, and divides by 3500 (as the average human needs to have a deficit of roughly 3500 calories to lose a pound).

    So it's a very rough estimate, based on an almost impossible proposition - that every day of those 35 days would be exactly like the day you just had. It's really not of any practical use, save maybe as a small indicator of whether your day's intake should be more or less to reach the rate of loss you want to achieve.

    I'd go back and tell you if mine looks anything vaguely accurate, but the calculation on my diary from 5 weeks ago is based on my weight as entered as of today (and not the weight I was then) so I have no idea.

  • AnnPT77
    AnnPT77 Posts: 35,011 Member
    No. Every day won't be like today. Not ever: Different amount of fidgeting at the desk at a desk job, different set of home chores, slightly different food for which the very best logging is only a close estimate (and for which labels aren't precise, plus some foods require our bodies to burn more calories just to digest/metabolize). On top of that, the calorie goal it gave us in the first place is an estimate, basically the average for superficially similar individuals, and most of us vary a little from average.

    It's pretty close for some people if they do very close to the same thing every day for 5 weeks and they are very close to average . . . maybe.

    More importantly in this case: You ate over your goal. Are you planning to eat over your goal for the next 5 weeks?

    If you're considering eating over goal more often because your current calorie level is too tough to stick with, just put a slower target weight loss rate in your MFP profile and get more calories to eat every day.

    Yeah, you'll lose a little slower. But if in that situation, sometimes a slower weight loss will get us to goal weight in less calendar time than a supposedly-fast rate that causes bouts of deprivation-triggered overeating, breaks in the action, or even giving up altogether.

    If you're not considering eating over goal more often, then this day is just a blip, not worth thinking about: You'll just lose a little slower this week. You'd have to have gone way over on one day to put yourself at a level where you wouldn't lose at all for the week.

    One powerful thing can be to learn an estimate of how many calories you could eat and maintain your current weight. Anytime you eat less than that amount, you'd expect to lose fat. Eat a tiny bit under those maintenance calories, lose very slowly; eat a bigger amount under those maintenance calories, lose weight faster. With the caution that really fast weight loss is usually a very bad idea, knowing the maintenance calorie level lets you make more informed decisions day to day, IMO and IME.

    One last thing: If you feel OK about eating over goal this one time, just go on with life. If you don't feel OK about it, think about how to improve your weight loss plan/tactics to avoid a repeat. Spend no more than about 10 minutes thinking about why it happened, and how you can avoid repeating that. Then go on with life. Don't try to "make up for it" later, though it's OK to eat a little less if truly less hungry next day, or do a bit more if truly feeling extra energetic.

    Best wishes!
  • csplatt
    csplatt Posts: 1,212 Member
    I ignore those
  • scottydewwannalosewt
    scottydewwannalosewt Posts: 101 Member
    miacaseyy wrote: »
    I'm on a deficit and I ate just a little over the budget today, when I pressed finish it came up with something that said ''if everyday were like this, you'd be at ____ in _ weeks' Do you guys think these predictions are accurate? I feel like I ate a lot more than regularly today...

    I have been using mfp off and on for more than 20 years. And have never relied on their forecast. Disregard it

Categories