Something isn't adding up in the app

four_bumblebees

I'm hoping someone can help me trouble shoot this. My goal is set to lose 1.5 lbs/week and my "current weight" is accurate. The problem is that my five week prediction is returning an estimated weight that seems too high given my calorie deficit.

I will give numbers from today as an example. The app is set to a 750 Cal deficit and I hit complete diary at 211 Cal below goal, so it should be a deficit of 961 Cal today. This should put my five week prediction about 9.6 lbs lower than my current weight, if I did my math right. However, it's giving me a prediction that is 7.1 lbs below my current weight, which is a deficit of 710 Cal daily.

Does anyone know what's going on here? I do use a Garmin watch and have the app connected, but MFP adjusts the exercise calories. I'm trying to troubleshoot what may be the beginning of a stall these last couple weeks.

yirara

Lots of things can be wrong here. First of all, the 5 weeks assumes that everyday is like today, with all activities, exactly the same food, etc. Ignore it. It's just a wild guess based on average bodies.

Secondly, what calorie goal have you been given? Regardless that that, on average try to reach your calories as fast weightloss is not necessarily better.

four_bumblebees

https://community.myfitnesspal.com/en/discussion/comment/48529965#Comment_48529965

Thanks for your response. I'm not trying to lose too quickly! 1.5 lbs/week is less than 1% of my body weight and I ate like 1900 calories yesterday. I'm just trying to figure out why its math seems off.

MNPOOLBOY

I would eat over 2,500 calories a day without any exercise and see what happens. This way the 5 week outlook doesn’t know your next move. 😀

AnnPT77

Where did you get your calorie goal? Reading between the lines, I'm wondering if you got it from somewhere outside MFP.

Regardless of that, in general the 5-week prediction is IMO dumb and often misleading. I used to close my diary when losing, and mostly found the prediction amusing . . . especially after I started using a manually-entered calorie goal based on my own real-world weight-change results. MFP's estimate is way off for me, a rare but possible thing.

Personally, I absolutely, positively wouldn't use the 5-week prediction as the indication of a scale stall, let alone any indication of the stall's reason.

If you'd been losing at a reasonable rate up until the last couple of weeks, then stalled or slowed quite dramatically, high odds the explanation is water retention weirdness with some possible contribution from weight of an unusual amount of food waste in the digestive tract on the way to the exit.

On the other hand, if your weight loss gradually tapered off over many weeks at the same calorie intake and activity level (including daily life activity, not solely exercise), it's more likely you're approaching current maintenance calories, no matter what MFP's calorie needs estimate or a fitness tracker says. (FWIW, Garmin's estimate is way off for me, hundreds of calories daily off compared to almost 10 years of careful logging and weight-change results - rare but possible.) 

MFP, other calorie calculators, and even fitness trackers just give us a starting estimate that's the average of demographically similar people. Each of us is an individual, and we can differ from average, high or low. Most people are close to average - that's the nature of statistics - but a few can be surprisingly far off.

A more realistic estimate of calorie needs is to follow that starting estimate closely on average for 4-6 weeks, or at least one full menstrual cycle for those who have one (to compare body weight at the same relative point in at least 2 different cycles). With that much real-life data, we can estimate our actual calorie needs more accurately by adding the calories of weight change to the calories eaten, and getting a per-day figure for that. (Assume a pound of body is roughly 3500 calories, a kilo about 7700.)  Use that insight to adjust calorie goal if necessary, personalizing the estimate.

Of course, in any situation of anomalous results, logging is also a potential issue. That's not a diss, because logging is a surprisingly subtle skill, with a learning curve. It's not unusual to discover some ways to improve our logging when results mismatch expectations. In general, the best route is to log every bite, lick, taste, beverage, condiment, cooking oil, scraps eaten in the kitchen, cheat day, oopsie day, etc.; to use a food scale as much as practical (quicker and easier as well as more accurate); never to use other people's recipe type entries in the MFP food database because we don't know the ingredients or their accuracy ("ham sandwich", "meat lasagna", etc.); and to check entries against the package or a known-accurate outside source like USDA FoodData Central database.

https://fdc.nal.usda.gov/

I'm not saying anyone must do all of that; I'm just saying that's some of the parameters of best accuracy.

That's the kind of stuff I'd suggest looking at to plan a more predictable path forward. I understand thinking the app will be "accurate", but realistically it can't be perfect for everyone, because we're all different. I don't even know for certain why my calorie needs are 25-30% different from what MFP or Garmin think (and honestly don't much care). If MFP were "accurate" for me, it'd be inaccurate for other people.

We can individualize our goals, and get more predictable results. That's what I'd suggest. That, and thinking of the "in 5 weeks" prediction as more like an entertaining party trick, and not a useful guide.

Best wishes!

four_bumblebees

https://community.myfitnesspal.com/en/discussion/comment/48530559#Comment_48530559

Thanks very much for your detailed reply :) I got my calorie goal from MFP, and my Garmin watch is connected for exercise calorie adjustments. I'm on week 7 of a deficit and have been comparing weight trends (via the libra app) to calories consumed. I seem to need only about 5-10% less than the app recommends to keep on track.

I think I'm tracking accurately. I weigh everything. Several years ago I tracked everything in maintenance for 2-3 years because it was helpful to manage a medical condition, so I've had plenty of practice with it.

I do suspect I'm retaining water. I think I'm in a mini autoimmune flare because I can see some swelling in my hands. My menstrual cycle is irregular due to birth control, but I'll keep looking at trends over the next few weeks.

I'm mostly just trying to figure out why the math seems wrong on the app. Best guess is that Garmin is changing calories more than MFP would like and it's giving me wonky answers as a result. It doesn't matter too much, I was just curious.

Lietchi

I've noticed math not adding up ever since MFP changed the activity levels a few months ago. Whether or not that's causing your problem, I can't say... I would compare your TDEE in Garmin on the one hand to your (adjusted) calorie goal in MFP+ 750kcal (=your deficit for 1.5lbs per week) on the other.

If everything is working correctly, those two numbers should be (more or less) the same. For me they aren't ever since MFP changed the activity levels, my adjusted calorie goal is now 200 kcal too high.

Another thing to keep in mind, especially when comparing numbers: a smaller body needs fewer calories, so it's good to go through your goal settings occasionally as you lose weight, to update your calorie goal.

AnnPT77

Lietchi has a good point there: Part of this may be bugs that haven't shaken out from the semi-recent activity level change in MFP.

Regardless, I'd still underscore that the in-5-weeks thing is not reliable. It even says "if every day were like today", a condition that's literally impossible. I mean, just making up a personal example, today I walked all over a home and garden show, and tomorrow I'll probably be mostly sedentary. Never the same.

Given what you say about some swelling in your hands, ultra-high odds that water retention changes are a factor in any recent scale pseudo-stall fake-out. If you'd like to understand more about possible triggers of that sort of thing, and haven't run across it yet, this thread - especially the article linked in the first post - is very informative:

https://community.myfitnesspal.com/en/discussion/10683010/the-weird-and-highly-annoying-world-of-scale-fluctuations

Steady fat loss of 1.5 pounds per week would be around 3.45 ounces - well less than a quarter pound - of fat loss daily on average. At a consistent calorie intake and fairly consistent daily life plus exercise activity level, that'd probably be pretty close to what would be happening.

By contrast, water retention fluctuations from one day to the next can be several pounds. Even as a woman who doesn't have hormonal cycles any more - something that can even more dramatically affect water fluctuations - I've seen as much as a 6-pound change from one day to the next. (I can confidently assure you that it wasn't from eating 21000 calories over maintenance in the preceding few days!) That kind of nonsense can mask fat loss progress on the bodyweight scale for a long time sometimes.

Hang in there!

lynn_glenmont

https://community.myfitnesspal.com/en/discussion/comment/48530737#Comment_48530737

My guess would be that MFP is making negative adjustments based on the Garmin data, because Garmin is saying that you calorie burn is less than what MFP assumes it will be based on your self-reported activity level.