Anyone using the "Complete this entry" feature lately

I am 6 feet and 165 lbs. Been on MFP for 13 years and have a 4300 day streak. I've been in maintenance mode for a long time, so rarely use the "complete diary" feature, but was well under this week and the "if every day was like today, in 5 weeks you would weigh X" has been giving odd results. I was under by 626 calories on Friday, and it said that in 5 weeks I would weigh 150.1 lbs. To lose 15 pounds in 5 weeks (not happening, and don't need to lose any more than 1 or 2), I'd need a calorie deficit of 52k or 1,500 calories per day.
Am I missing something in my math? Has the science changed on a 3,500 calorie per point metric?
Answers
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The calorie multiplier for activity level settings has changed - upward. That might cause symptoms like that, but I would've guessed smaller magnitude than that.
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