Accuracy of the....you'd weigh XXX in 5 weeks

teresa77447

For those of you who accuratley counted all you ate did you find the estimate to be accurate?

Cyclingbonnie

I just like seeing it. I can't really say weather it is accurate or not, mainly because I've never been perfect. :blushing:

upscalelifedownscalebutt

Nope.

taeliesyn

Its not accurate as that message is based off EVERYTHING being exactly the same, including activity level.
Also I'm not sure if it takes into account the lower BMR that would come about as the weight drops.

shayemimi

when I was actively losing it was pretty close, not exactly, but close. Now it's just funny lol.

teresa77447

I intend to do a "test". Go by the average of what it says daily and in 5 weeks see where I am. Todays was way low but I burned a lot more calories than I normally do.

billymacintosh

At the moment I'd say no as based on the information I've put in MFP is estimating 1IB weightloss a week and I'm losing at 2IB a week. Not sure whether it will slow down but I'd say a predicted weight loss of a pound when consistantly sticking to 1200 is a bit of a poor estimation
Billy

Ready2Rock206

Not even the slightest bit close. But then I've never eaten the exact same thing while exercising the exact same amount every day for 5 weeks.

sunsetzen

I dont think so. It kept saying I'd lose 5 kilos in 5 weeks but I havent lost anything in 2 weeks and its still saying the same number, but I havent changed my exercise or eating patterns. :sad:

melaniecheeks

I dont think it's meant to be accurate, it's just a rough indicator.

If you're going to do a test, does that mean you're going to eat exactly the same thing and do the same exercise every day for 5 weeks?

Yiazach

Nothing you measure without the proper equipment is accurate so just dont dwell on it, it is an estimation. You just do what you do for yourself to get healthy and slim and that's the only thing that matters

kitujainen

I don't believe a word of it. I should have lost a kilo per week on the last information I got, but instead gained half a kilo that day. My body is a mystery

mcibty

Let me give you all my nopes.

Don't get your hopes up.

Agree, it is nice to see, though.

Regan45

I agree with everyone else but I too like to see it.
If you do actually do the test and everything is the same each day for 5 weeks, I would love to know the accuracy.

Sashoi

I don't think I could eat n do the same thing everyday for 5 weeks. I still track the number they give everyday though. Sometimes I go back five weeks to see how accurate it is. Lol

sandobr1

when I was actively losing it was pretty close, not exactly, but close. Now it's just funny lol.

Me too, the first few months it matched pretty close. I recorded ahead several times to see. In the begin for me I ate my cals very consistently and did very little exercise.

Eleonora91

Ew no. I'd be at my goal weight already if I lost all that weight for real

GemmaRowlands

When I was at uni, I was in a routine that meant that every day really WAS the same. I'd have the same things for breakfast and lunch, and similar amounts for dinner, plus the same commute each day (which include an hour's walking) and the same sets of stairs to the same classrooms. Then, my estimate would be accurate. But now it's not, because my day to day activities vary way too much. But as long as you stay in a deficit it doesn't really matter.. it's just something that's nice to see (on good days).

I once put the decimal point wrong in my food diary without noticing, and when I clicked complete it said something like "if every day were like to today you would weight 800lbs in 5 weeks" haha. That was scary until I noticed (although of course after the initial shock I realised how unrealistic it was).

judyde

Mine is fairly accurate. BUT I am set to a modest goal of 1 lb a week, and I eat very close to my calorie goal each day, e.g., I don't eat 500 calories under or over. I'm losing at a fairly steady rate of 1 lb per week.

sloth3toes

I dont think it's meant to be accurate, it's just a rough indicator.

If you're going to do a test, does that mean you're going to eat exactly the same thing and do the same exercise every day for 5 weeks?

I believe only the calorie deficit would have to be consistent. Eat less, or move more, and all that.....

Danishaeg

I don't find it accurate at all. But it is nice to see. lol.

OsricTheKnight

When you project out based on just one day it's doomed to be a terrible projection. The point isn't accuracy, you're missing the point. The point is motivation - to reward you for a good day with how great the outcome would be if you could do that again, and penalize you for a bad day by making the cost of a bad day really clear. 'course lots of people don't log their bad days, but you should...

If you want an accurate projection use a charting tool like trendweight.com. It's projection jumps around too, but it's much more likely to be accurate because it is at least based on many days of track record.

Osric

Susaneshet

I think it's fun to see but have not found it to be the least bit accurate.

WhiteRabbit1313

I think it could be reasonably accurate, if we stopped manipulating the variables that make it true. It really is just there for motivation, and it helps me a lot...dare to dream and all that. However, to ask people if it's accurate not considering that they are manipulating the variables, whether they want to admit it, or not, is just asinine. (The main variables being calories in v. calories out, which have their own variables--human error in tracking being the number one problem, and energy expenditure, which has its own variables--also, human error in tracking being the main problem, inflated database numbers being another.)

My advice: Use it for motivation, Be COMPLETELY honest with yourself on tracking, and you should see results.

sloth3toes

There's no reason why it shouldn't be accurate. The MFP mantra.... calories in / calories out.... eat at a deficit.... In my short time here, I've seen hundreds of posts directed at people who don't understand why they aren't losing..... that state, tracking accurately, and eating at the correct, calculated deficit, will result in weight loss. That is, it appears, that the majority of MFP'ers believe that you should be able to lose at a predictable rate, if you log accurately, and follow the prescribed deficit spelled out for you.

Therefore... if the whole program really is that simple, then there's no reason why the 'you'd weigh XXX in 5 weeks' shouldn't be accurate, IF you keep your deficit at exactly the same, each day for those 5 weeks.

teresa77447

I dont think it's meant to be accurate, it's just a rough indicator.

If you're going to do a test, does that mean you're going to eat exactly the same thing and do the same exercise every day for 5 weeks?

No to both. By a test I mean take an average of what the XXX is each day at the end of the 5 weeks and see if it is close, say within a pound or two. I eat similiar things but not the same things.

teresa77447

I do use it for motivation. It gives me a smile each time I see it. So far I have only had good, nice numbers. That is what led me to post the question. I liked what I saw.

There's no reason why it shouldn't be accurate. The MFP mantra.... calories in / calories out.... eat at a deficit.... In my short time here, I've seen hundreds of posts directed at people who don't understand why they aren't losing..... that state, tracking accurately, and eating at the correct, calculated deficit, will result in weight loss. That is, it appears, that the majority of MFP'ers believe that you should be able to lose at a predictable rate, if you log accurately, and follow the prescribed deficit spelled out for you.

Therefore... if the whole program really is that simple, then there's no reason why the 'you'd weigh XXX in 5 weeks' shouldn't be accurate, IF you keep your deficit at exactly the same, each day for those 5 weeks.

OsricTheKnight

There's no reason why it shouldn't be accurate. The MFP mantra.... calories in / calories out.... eat at a deficit.... In my short time here, I've seen hundreds of posts directed at people who don't understand why they aren't losing..... that state, tracking accurately, and eating at the correct, calculated deficit, will result in weight loss.

There is a reason it isn't accurate and it's simple. Measurements of any kind involve an error, normally modeled with a statistical distribution around the true measure. Let's say your logging is off by 5% and your TDEE is off by 15%. Then you're off by 20% for the day. Specific numbers: TDEE estimated at 2800 kcals; logs estimate intake of 1400 kcals. The number it'll tell you for 5 weeks is 35 * 1400 / 3500 = 14lbs lost. But your actually TDEE Is 2380 and your actual intake is 1470, so your actual deficit is 910, and the real value for 5 week is is 35 * 910 / 3500 = 9.1lbs. These error rates are totally reasonable even if you weigh and measure your food and use something sophisticated like a bodymedia device or other tracker to estimate your TDEE.

And, the errors you make are different every day. Take any 100 calorie error and multiply it by 35 days and you're off by a whole pound.

It simply can't be accurate, it isn't averaging together enough data to be accurate.

Osric

sloth3toes

There's no reason why it shouldn't be accurate. The MFP mantra.... calories in / calories out.... eat at a deficit.... In my short time here, I've seen hundreds of posts directed at people who don't understand why they aren't losing..... that state, tracking accurately, and eating at the correct, calculated deficit, will result in weight loss.

There is a reason it isn't accurate and it's simple. Measurements of any kind involve an error, normally modeled with a statistical distribution around the true measure. Let's say your logging is off by 5% and your TDEE is off by 15%. Then you're off by 20% for the day. Specific numbers: TDEE estimated at 2800 kcals; logs estimate intake of 1400 kcals. The number it'll tell you for 5 weeks is 35 * 1400 / 3500 = 14lbs lost. But your actually TDEE Is 2380 and your actual intake is 1470, so your actual deficit is 910, and the real value for 5 week is is 35 * 910 / 3500 = 9.1lbs. These error rates are totally reasonable even if you weigh and measure your food and use something sophisticated like a bodymedia device or other tracker to estimate your TDEE.

And, the errors you make are different every day. Take any 100 calorie error and multiply it by 35 days and you're off by a whole pound.

It simply can't be accurate, it isn't averaging together enough data to be accurate.

Osric

I agree with you, and that's why I made the statement, so someone could disprove it with facts. I've stated before, that I break one of the biggest MFP commandments... I don't log accurately. I am lazy about it, I don't weigh my food, and I grab other people's entries, that seem to close ( enough ) match my own. I enjoy MFP's 'projections' for what I'll weigh in 5 weeks... but put no faith in the prediction, either. If the scale, and my pants are telling me that I'm going in the right direction... I'm fine with quite literally, 'ballparking' alot of the data I enter into MFP. IMHO.... ( for me ) if things aren't moving in the proper direction... I have logged enough data, even if it's not 100% ( by any means ) accurate, to tell me that I have to make some kind of move. IE, less calories in, or more calories out.

I've often thought that exactly what you just explained so well, was probably true. I am set for 1/2 lb loss per week. That's basically a deficit of 250 calories per day.... and there's no way on gawd's green earth that I am accurate to anywhere near 250 calories in my logging. And, again, IMHO.... I don't feel it's necessary to attempt to be that accurate. If what I'm logging shows I'm going in the wrong direction, then I basically have to eat less.

WhiteRabbit1313

There's no reason why it shouldn't be accurate. The MFP mantra.... calories in / calories out.... eat at a deficit.... In my short time here, I've seen hundreds of posts directed at people who don't understand why they aren't losing..... that state, tracking accurately, and eating at the correct, calculated deficit, will result in weight loss.

There is a reason it isn't accurate and it's simple. Measurements of any kind involve an error, normally modeled with a statistical distribution around the true measure. Let's say your logging is off by 5% and your TDEE is off by 15%. Then you're off by 20% for the day. Specific numbers: TDEE estimated at 2800 kcals; logs estimate intake of 1400 kcals. The number it'll tell you for 5 weeks is 35 * 1400 / 3500 = 14lbs lost. But your actually TDEE Is 2380 and your actual intake is 1470, so your actual deficit is 910, and the real value for 5 week is is 35 * 910 / 3500 = 9.1lbs. These error rates are totally reasonable even if you weigh and measure your food and use something sophisticated like a bodymedia device or other tracker to estimate your TDEE.

And, the errors you make are different every day. Take any 100 calorie error and multiply it by 35 days and you're off by a whole pound.

It simply can't be accurate, it isn't averaging together enough data to be accurate.

Osric

^^Yep. That's basically what I said, too. Good example to illustrate the point, though.

calliekitten9

For those of you who accuratley counted all you ate did you find the estimate to be accurate?

No....because all my entries are "guesses" at best (and that includes calories earned by doing certain activities). That is ok..I am learning good "general" things about foods and exercize.