logically not adding up

After reading countless threads, doing this for almost 3yrs, being relatively successful losing 80lbs, something still doesn’t add up.. the numbers …

So, I’d like to call on the math/fitness geniuses to maybe explain why these numbers don’t add up logically to me, specifically with BMR and TDEE vs Daily. I know everyone is different body wise, but I can’t be that off that something isn’t lining up..


Here’s the numbers and layout

73” tall, 230lbs…
Desk job, but I
Run 4.5 miles -6x week (I take Sat off to do yard work, chores, projects, etc but don’t log it)

Just based off that, here’s how it lines up. (using Mifflin - St Jeor equation)

Just to simplify it, I only track my runs ("official" workouts) as cals burned and then don't log them (i use garmin and endomondo)


Scooby’s
http://scoobysworkshop.com/calorie-calculator/#projectedweightloss
(little to no exercise setting)

BMR – 2139
TDEE – 2566
Daily – 1925 (-25%cal reduction)


MPF
http://www.myfitnesspal.com/tools/bmr-calculator
(I use sedentary/2lbs/week setting)

BMR – 1997
Daily – 1540/day

Calculator
www.calculator.net

BMR = 2013 Calories/day

Daily
you need 2060 Calories/day to maintain your weight
you need 1560 Calories/day to lose 1 lb per week
you need 1060 Calories/day to lose 2 lb per week
you need 2560 Calories/day to gain 1 lb per week
you need 3060 Calories/day to gain 2 lb per week



with all of that said… I don’t input my exercise.

My Garmin FR210 calc’s approx 785-800cals burned per run.



I normally have been eating 2000/day and have dropped it down to 1540/day to keep losing (stalled a bit) but I’ve noticed that anymore than 2k/day I’m gaining.

Technically – I know that if I don’t eat them back (and i don't even calculate them in the "daily eating equation"), it’s decreasing a lot but I’m not starving, or feel sick, I’m actually healthier than I’ve been the previous 40 years.

What gives with the numbers … am I looking at it wrong? I’m thinking that eating that 2400/day or whatever would cause me to gain it all back again.

I’ve lost the weight, and am doing well, keeping it off, but the numbers don’t logically add up in my mind and it’s been bugging me for a while now, and i'm trying to get them to balance out in my mind.