12 days, 6.5lbs - all water weight?

I just want to post so I can see my ticker :) (hope it works) and to check in so I don't let myself let go this time like every other time...

I'm 12 days in and so far I've been following a very reasonable diet, about 1,400-1,500cal/day. I'm not hungry and I haven't cut out anything yet. I wasn't really eating anything bad, no soda, no junk food, just enormous portions of all the good stuff. I'm realizing now just how enormous they were and I ordered a scale which I hope will really teach me portion control. I haven't added any consistent exercise yet, but I have been lifting weights at home following an online video a few times.

I am 5'3 and 191.5. I wonder if all 6.5lbs have been water weight? And for my stats, at what point would you kind of know that you're not talking about water weight anymore and you're really losing weight?

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