Should I eat back ALL my exercise calories?

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Everyone here seems to think that you should eat them all back to your calorie deflect. But a lot of MFP's also say that the calories you burn on machines a very inaccurate, and I could be burning a lot less then I think. So if I ate back all my exercise calories, and I overestimated my burn, I could start eating too much. I haven't seen the scale move in two weeks, so I'm starting to think that's the problem.
Height: 5'2" 1/2
Weight: 138
Goal:115
caloric intake: 1,200 plus any exercise cals I burn
I usually burn around 500-600 calories per day ( estimate)