Weight loss doesn't look linear? Try a moving average

Aaron_K123

My weight loss plotted on MFP looks like a total rollercoaster ride and I can understand why people look at graphs like that and state that weight loss isn't linear. Moved the data to excel and plotted with a moving average (interval of 7) to smooth it out and perform a subsequent linear fit to yield this.



With an r-square of 0.98 gives a very high confidence that I can predict what I will weigh months from now assuming I continue my diet consistently. From the fit I am losing 0.18 pounds per day which is 1.3 pounds a week close to my MFP set goal of 1.4 pounds per week.

Will see if this trend continues linearly for the next few months. Right now this is predicting that one month from now I will be 171.5 pounds +/- three pounds which is my typical weekly fluctuation.

Or this pattern will totally change for no apparent reason, we shall see but this is making me feel pretty confident.

geebusuk

I always go on about it, but for those of that are lazy there are a few apps that do this for you without setting up a spreadhseet etc.
I use 'Libra' and like it - it also gives you a figure for you defict/surplus based on the trend and so on.

LadyTalulah

Thanks for the advice!
I know that women will have more problems with linear weight loss because of our monthly cycle -.- It can get frustrating when you've been so good yet the scale goes up 5lbs overnight due to water retention!!

Aaron_K123

I always go on about it, but for those of that are lazy there are a few apps that do this for you without setting up a spreadhseet etc.
I use 'Libra' and like it - it also gives you a figure for you defict/surplus based on the trend and so on.

Huh, looks like Libra is an Android app for graphing weight loss? Will have to check that out. I like fiddling with it in excel so probably won't switch but worth checking out.

Aaron_K123

Thanks for the advice!
I know that women will have more problems with linear weight loss because of our monthly cycle -.- It can get frustrating when you've been so good yet the scale goes up 5lbs overnight due to water retention!!

That is what the moving average is for, smooths that right out so you can see the underlying linear trend.

I mean here is what MFP graphs my weight as before I did the moving average for comparison, my weight fluctuates by 3 to 5 pounds most weeks:

Velum_cado

Holy goddamn, I hate math.

Aaron_K123

Holy goddamn, I hate math.

Not much math to it really, just averages.

geebusuk

Huh, looks like Libra is an Android app for graphing weight loss? Will have to check that out. I like fiddling with it in excel so probably won't switch but worth checking out.

Yea, it does 'everything I need' and a bit more.
You can export the data, too.

Just tried exporting the graph and here's the export of my recent weight loss, now transitioning to a surplus over 5 weeks.


The blue though shows q#where you 'should' be given your start weight and goal presuming eating at a strict deficit.
I found my loss plateaued early April, as can be seen, so started my transition to bulk a little earlier than planned - body composition was about where I had planned it to be anyway.
I do weigh daily generally, but not all data points are shown as it's zoomed out.

Oh, and; I've got it setup to use stone and pounds because I'm a pommy,

Aaron_K123

Huh, looks like Libra is an Android app for graphing weight loss? Will have to check that out. I like fiddling with it in excel so probably won't switch but worth checking out.

Yea, it does 'everything I need' and a bit more.
You can export the data, too.

Just tried exporting the graph and here's the export of my recent weight loss, now transitioning to a surplus over 5 weeks.


The blue though shows q#where you 'should' be given your start weight and goal presuming eating at a strict deficit.
I found my loss plateaued early April, as can be seen, so started my transition to bulk a little earlier than planned - body composition was about where I had planned it to be anyway.
I do weigh daily generally, but not all data points are shown as it's zoomed out.

Yeah I figure that plateau is somewhere in my future which is why I stated that I expect it to be linear until it isn't. Very cool though, and congrats looks like you have made a lot of progress.

Wonderob

My weight loss plotted on MFP looks like a total rollercoaster ride and I can understand why people look at graphs like that and state that weight loss isn't linear. Moved the data to excel and plotted with a moving average (interval of 7) to smooth it out and perform a subsequent linear fit to yield this.



With an r-square of 0.98 gives a very high confidence that I can predict what I will weigh months from now assuming I continue my diet consistently. From the fit I am losing 0.18 pounds per day which is 1.3 pounds a week close to my MFP set goal of 1.4 pounds per week.

Will see if this trend continues linearly for the next few months. Right now this is predicting that one month from now I will be 171.5 pounds +/- three pounds which is my typical weekly fluctuation.

Or this pattern will totally change for no apparent reason, we shall see but this is making me feel pretty confident.

I like this Aaron!

I'm constantly playing about with Excel for my food and fitness stuff. If nothing else it concentrates my mind on the right things

I'm currently playing about with my weight training routines, my protein intake, my weight/fat tracking, my HRM data etc etc

Pretty lame to most people but like I said, it focusses my mind. I'm giving your moving average a go too now, cheers

EmGetsFit

Wow, very cool. I feel better about my zigzagish weight chart now. Thanks for posting!

AwesomeGuy37

I'm still a morbidly obese man so my chart looks a bit more stable.

Wonderob

I'm still a morbidly obese man so my chart looks a bit more stable.

There you see. There can't be much more of a motivating sight than to see a chart like that.

Morbidly obese. Put a plan in place to do something about it. Plan is working. Gradual weight loss. Graph shows the progress

Well done

writergirljodie

OMG! So true. I'm having that problem now. It's awful to watch all the work you've done disappear over the course of a couple of days. A 5 lb. gain overnight is sooooo hard to deal with emotionally. Ugh!

HavtaLose

I've been tracking on Libra too for roughly 4 months and I love it!! I love to weigh in daily and Libra gives me perspective. I sometimes like to compare it and my food diary to notice if there's a pattern.

geebusuk

Yeah I figure that plateau is somewhere in my future which is why I stated that I expect it to be linear until it isn't. Very cool though, and congrats looks like you have made a lot of progress.

Ta; from many yo-yo's I've got pretty good at knowing what works for me!
Only started using libra fairly late in this 'round' of weight loss.

I had planned to lose 1lb/week, but ended up on 2lb/week, with average daily intake BEFORE extra cardio set at 2000 calories or so - then ate back cardio calories, so often eating an average of nearer 3000 calories a day if doing a lot of cardio.
Started 1st december and lost 40lb over 20 weeks.

Interestingly, when weight loss levelled off, my lifts also improved (squats took an extra hit when I did a 32 mile ultramarathon with a further 10% knocked off that wasn't going back on) - presumably something had caused my BMR to slow down enough for there to be SOME energy left over in my lean gains style IF to improve muscle a little.

Over the last 4 weeks, I have upped calories by 250 extra each week - as you can see my weight loss in this time has actually stayed fairly consistent at around .5lb/week. Presumably body adjusting back up at a similar pace to my diet catching up.