How accurate have you found MFP's forecasts?

stevecollins_88

Hi all,

Just wondered what your experiences have been like with MFP's forecasts?

Obviously it does state actual results may vary and there is is an issue where logging is sometimes not totally accurate, but assuming the logging is precise and stick to targets (or at least average sticking to targets over a period of time) how accurate have you found MFP's forecasts to be?

I'm 4 weeks in and my net calories are about 100 calories under target/goal (on average over the 4 weeks, definitely some bad days in there but averaged out), which according to MFP should see me lose a pound per week. I'm going to weigh myself later and see what the results are. I'm expecting it to maybe be about 2.5-3 pounds rather than 4, but we'll see.

wink212

Not accurate at all! For weeks I ate almost the exact same thing everyday and never lost the weight they said I should have been. I don't really look at that as I am losing so that's fine for me just not at the rate they say. I've noticed a lot of numbers off on this site though especially on calories burned. I bought a HRM and my calories burned according to it are always WAY lower than what MFP states.

missiontofitness

I personally have seen a lot of consistency with it. Obviously it is just a guesstimate, and how you eat before and after the day of the forecast will play a role in it as well.
But I have lost at the rate in which it has forecasted for me, so at least its working for me!

LoupGarouTFTs

I find myself losing a little more than what MFP says I will, according to their settings. I suspect that has a lot to do with my difficulty with eating supper and the potential inaccuracy of recording exercise calories more than anything else. I don't pay much attention to the "forecasts" when I complete my entry for the day. I look at them as being inspiration rather than accurate information.

jessicagrieshaber

Two summers ago I lost ten pounds by following exactly what MFP told me. If you find that their forecast is not working for you, alter it a bit. Lower the calorie gain a little bit and see how your body reacts. Everyones body is different and MFP just uses the general equations to calculate caloric needs!

BigVeggieDream

It's been spot on for me. It may overestimate exercise calories burned, but only by about 50 calories at most.

rduhlir

Hi all,

Just wondered what your experiences have been like with MFP's forecasts?

Obviously it does state actual results may vary and there is is an issue where logging is sometimes not totally accurate, but assuming the logging is precise and stick to targets (or at least average sticking to targets over a period of time) how accurate have you found MFP's forecasts to be?

I'm 4 weeks in and my net calories are about 100 calories under target/goal (on average over the 4 weeks, definitely some bad days in there but averaged out), which according to MFP should see me lose a pound per week. I'm going to weigh myself later and see what the results are. I'm expecting it to maybe be about 2.5-3 pounds rather than 4, but we'll see.

One thing you have to remember about those forecasts you get....yes they will be on target...IF...every single day is the exact same as that day. So you have to weigh the same, eat the same and exercise the exact same amount as you did as that forecast. That tool is meant to simply be a motivator, the actual results may be a great deal off.

Deena_Bean

I weigh 172 and have for the last 6 weeks basically. My daily forecast has told me I'll weigh 166ish in 5 weeks if I eat like that everyday. I'd have to say it's generally a big-fat-lie. However, when I first started (187) I dropped a lot quickly and it seemed correct. Guess it varies, but generally, I would not put a lot faith in it.

Heatherybit

Not accurate because I am not accurate. I lost a lot more than the projected because I didn't log things like vacuuming the whole house, taking the dog on a hike, walking in the mall frantically for two hours looking for a birthday gift in an utter panic, yard work, etc.

Again the MFP is a generalization working on the built in equation with the numbers I give it, but it can only be as good as I am.

mikebooker1

I think this is one of those question where if you ask 10 different people you'll get 10 different responses so here goes the 11th

This is my second time around using MPF. The first time around I think I got hung up on the numbers aspect of it and ultimately burned myself out. This time around around more than anything it gives me accountability know that I can have that greasy double burger but I'll feel terrible when i log it later. I'll admit I do get a bit of joy when i have a good day and it shows a number I would love to be at in a few weeks but I don't get hung up on it. My advice is use the numbers as a guide but don't dwell on them.

LinzieML

Mine have definitely been accurate, I've been eating far too much the last few weeks and only this week got my bum into gear. It's showing realistic forecasts, nothing major or daunting.

Use them to spur you on but you know in yourself if they'll be achievable. If you're eating the same all the time or doing the same, maybe your body needs a bit of a kick into action?

Veil5577

I agree with the other posts, if you don't eat exactly the same and exercise exactly the same the numbers aren't accurate. But I don't pay too much attention to the forecasts because if I expect that I may get disappointed. As with the others I use it as a motivational tool.

parmoute

I think it depends on whether you keep your settings updated. When I was eating back calories (activity = sedentary, expected workouts = 0 mins/week), if I logged 85% of whatever MFP gave me and ate only that back, the predictions were reasonably accurate.

When I switched to the TDEE-x% method a few months back (I stopped losing weight the other way - not sure why), I never updated my activity levels (just the calories). So MFP still thinks I don't workout and therefore gives me a smaller projected weight loss than I'm actually seeing. Since I'm seeing a nutritionist, I don't really care, but in my case at least I'd blame the user input before blaming the program!

Since someone else already mentioned it: be careful with heart rate monitor calories. My cardiovascular endurance sucks, so my HRM calories read really high -- I don't use those numbers at all (other than to measure progress in my cardio health). You'll need to experiment and tweak to figure out what system seems to match your body's performance the best.

CariS001

I think it depends on where you are in your journey. If you have a lot to lose and are starting out, I feel it is quite accurate. As you are closer and closer (or at) a healthy weight, there are so many other variables that get in the way.

cklowery36

Mine has been slightly hit or miss and that's fine. They're numbers - it doesn't tell you if you've hit a plateau, warn you that you're eating foods that retain fat and/or water or affect your insulin levels. It doesn't tell any woman that she's diagnosed with PCOS or thyroid issues which frustrate the heck out of a number of them when losing weight. I know for example, when I'm retaining fluids or when I need more calories because I've been working harder at whatever activity I'm doing. Get to know your body, talk to your doctor (those lab results are eye-opening), and remember that the numbers are a good guide.

stevecollins_88

Thanks all. All posts appreciated on both sides of the experience.

What made me most skeptical was days when I'd eaten in my opinion pretty badly, but was only a couple of hundred calories over goal/target, then MFP would tell me "if every day was like this, you'd lose 0.5 pounds in 5 weeks" and I just knew this couldn't be accurate.

Be interesting to see what I weigh in at tonight.

bcattoes

I was never able to eat "like you did today" for 5 weeks.

skippygirlsmom

I went back 5 weeks from today and the "you'll be weight" is 2 lbs higher than what I weigh. If I go back 5 weeks and 1 day my "you'll be weight" is 6 lbs lighter than what I weigh. So it was a 8 lb difference from one day to the next. Like others have said sure if you eat exactly the same every day.

0somuchbetter0

The MFP forecast is based on a mathematical formula. 1+1 = 2. Our bodies are organic, fluid, variable...plus no one can consume and burn the exact same way every single day for 5 weeks. Like someone else said, the forecast is just meant to be a motivator.

segovm

For me not at all. The defaults for exercise calories burned are FAR too high for me and the food calories I've eaten are not EXACTLY measured every time.

If I weighed every bit of food going in me and used something like a heart rate monitor to estimate actual calories burned it would probably be closer but even then an estimate is just an estimate.

I mostly just use MFP to track the steps in the process to see what works best. I know what foods and exercise I have done, even if the calories in and out are not definitive.

scrittrice

Eerily accurate. I think I must be extremely metabolically average for my age/height/weight.

mom2aeris

Umm, I would say that in general, I have been losing what they predicted I would (after the first two weeks, wherein I lost a *lot* of water weight very quickly, plus I had given up soda, so that helped). Now that things have slowed down, and I am taking as much time and energy as I can into logging everything accurately, the predictions have been fairly dead on. I have lost 33.5 pounds in 112 days, so that's pretty much dead on where I "should" be according to their calculations.

lemurcat12

I was never able to eat "like you did today" for 5 weeks.

This. I don't make an effort to keep my calories consistent and exercise widely varying amounts, so my estimates differ from day to day, and I've never tracked them to see how they compare to what actually happens.

sarainiowa

Not accurate at all.

This is a great place to log and get support. Any number MFP gives you for results (forecasts, workouts, etc) check them against something else. MFP appears to use averages, which won't be accurate for many.

Ldbg289

I honestly don't pay much attention to it, because I rarely eat the same thing for 2 days in a row let alone 5 weeks.

cookiealbright

I went back 5 weeks and I now weight 2 lbs more that the predictor. But I don't eat the same everyday I'll take a 3 lbs loss in 5 weeks! :flowerforyou:

bethlaf

lol , funnny i have a little post it note ..
on April 28th is said i would weigh XXX.X
on June 3rd.
i don't ..
but , in MFPs Defense,
i did not eat the EXACT same food every single day with the exact same exercise for 5 weeks either...


they also EDITED it recently, and if EVERY DAY WERE LIKE TODAY:you would weigh XXX.X
ok , im still down from where i was on april 28th... so i still love me MFP!

Crawflowr

I graphed my weight loss found the actual weight loss pretty much followed the predicted values.

I've since been maintaining my weight, still logging everything and find the goals seem to be right for me.

RabbitLost

Ask 10 people and get 10 answers. Best answer yet. So,here is probably another one that is different.

I don't look at the predictions because my calories needs are based on a BMR test I take at my gym every six months. I set my calorie goal and work to that. Because of the way I set my goals, I will never lose as fast as MFP says (like someone said - individual bodies versus general averages). But I am losing. Once, I stalled in a three pound range for about 6 weeks. I got a bit down, but then realized, I probably found my then current maintenance level, shaved about 250 calories a day and viola! Back on track at about half a pound a week.

Keep at it. It works.

stevecollins_88

Thanks again guys. I just weighed in and have lost 2 and a half pounds, so as expected not quite up to the estimations, but still a result.