Researchers claiming it's impossible to keep weight off

tedrickp

If you want to learn the basics in a really approachable way, I recommend the book "The Cartoon Guide to Statistics"

Thank you! Just ordered. Currently reading Thinking Fast and Slow (Daniel Kahneman) and this will go perfectly with that.

hearthwood

Sounds like the researchers have been doing yo yo dieting for quite some time now, and just gave up and decided to write a report to excuse themselves lol.

Look all weight is--is calories consumed during the day versus calories burned. And since we have sent mankind to the moon and back, it's kind of hard to believe we can't keep track of calories!

likitisplit

There are some things that work well to support behavior change. Clear and instant feedback is one. I have really high hopes for apps and things like bodymedia/fitbits. Getting clear feedback on your behavior and seeing metrics on how that behavior impacts your long term goals is gold.

systemlayers

I feel like too much focus on weight loss is... based around the loss. I do have some sort of an idea/target of where I want to be but I always make sure my first and foremost thought is concrete longterm change. When I describe my weight loss I use "Fit and Healthy" instead of "I want to weigh x pounds". There are so many healthy weights it's silly to focus on an exact number.

Around me I see the opposite, I live up north and every year when summer rolls around people start fad diets. Two in my office are doing '9 day liquid diets', one is doing something called a homeopathy diet, others are just starving themselves.

I lost weight 2 summers ago and gained back to my now realized shame but I realized I basically just starved myself and walked a lot, it wasn't sustainable. I've been eating a higher calorie/vegetable diet now and doing strength training and feel 100% better. I never want to feel that sloth like nature again where I fall asleep.

I'm almost positive most of these 'weight loss' plans don't work because they were never structured for long term success in the first place.

MelodyandBarbells

Readily available high calorie food just tastes good

Carol_

"Ain't that the truth." Yeah.

enchromaticc

Until they clearly define this "95%" of people, and where they got it from, I'm calling bs on this too.

But then again, A LOT of people do regain their weight after a few years That is true. But the problem with this whole article is that it simply does not offer enough solid, concrete evidence of how that works.

Iwishyouwell

So if I gain weight back even once that permanently puts me in the 95% I'm guessing? On the other hand I lost ~40 lbs and kept it off for the better part of 3-5 years and now I'm on track to drop another 30. Does that put me again in the success column?

According to these researchers, you need to maintain a stable weight for 10 years. 9 stable years and a pregnancy: you lose.

Wait what? That's a ridiculous standard anyway. Even if you are lucky that's still a full tenth of your entire life. I call bs on the whole study. Who's with me?

This isn't a "whole study". Every single study ever done on longer term weight management, regardless of rate of loss, or method of loss, has abysmal success rates.

Every. Single. One.

Call it a diet, or call it a "lifestyle change", whatever you call it, it does nobody any good to pretend that the studies are the problem here. These are the odds us formerly fat face and it pays to take heed to what could easily happen to us.

tedrickp

Can you link some of those studies?

I don't believe that every study shows abysmal failure rates, but unless you direct me towards them I won't know for sure. It's also impossible to judge the methodology used in said studies.

Doing my own search through studies - i haven't found a) the paper mentioned in this news article b) the abysmal failure rates.

You could save me a lot of time by linking the ones you mention with abysmal failure rates, thanks.

Edit:

This study classifies successful weight maintenance as one year so results aren't totally applicable to this conversation: (~20% for the record)
http://ajcn.nutrition.org/content/82/1/222S.long

BUT, I found this mention to be interesting...

Only a few studies have followed participants for longer intervals; in these studies, ≈13–20% maintain a weight loss of 5 kg or more at 5 y. In the Diabetes Prevention Program (9), ≈1000 overweight individuals with impaired glucose tolerance were randomly assigned to an intensive lifestyle intervention. The average weight loss of these participants was 7 kg (7%) at 6 mo; after 1 y, participants maintained a weight loss of ≈6 kg (6%), and, at 3 y, they maintained a weight loss of ≈4 kg (4%). At the end of the study (follow-up ranging from 1.8 to 4.6 y; mean, 2.8 y), 37% maintained a weight loss of 7% or more. Thus, although the data are limited and the definitions varied across studies, it appears that ≈20% of overweight individuals are successful weight losers.

---

...Again not ten years (only 5), but I wouldn't consider those rates "abysmal".

songbyrdsweet

Can you link some of those studies?

I don't believe that every study shows abysmal failure rates, but unless you direct me towards them I won't know for sure. It's also impossible to judge the methodology used in said studies.

Doing my own search through studies - i haven't found a) the paper mentioned in this news article b) the abysmal failure rates.

You could save me a lot of time by linking the ones you mention with abysmal failure rates, thanks.

Here's one stating only 20% can maintain a 10% weight loss for 2 years:

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov.ezproxy.lib.vt.edu:8080/pubmed/22023231

Less than 10% can maintain weight loss for 7 years:

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov.ezproxy.lib.vt.edu:8080/pmc/articles/PMC3139793/

Another one stating that 20% of individuals can maintain a 10% weight loss for just 1 year, and that on average 30-35% of weight is regained within the first year with an average of 1.8kg gained per year after that:

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov.ezproxy.lib.vt.edu:8080/pmc/articles/PMC2676575/

I donno, how many do you want?

tedrickp

20% is NOT abysmal and is not the 5% mentioned in the news article.

Thanks for the links though - bookmarking now!

Edit: and as many as you got

helyg

Watching this with interest...

I lost 90lbs by doing it slowly, it was a lifestyle change that I was going to stick to blah blah blah. I kept it off for a year. Then I got a trapped nerve in my back which meant I had to give up running. Then I changed jobs and am more sedentary. Suddenly 25lbs has piled back on and I am knocking at the door of overweight again. So I'm back to lose it, hoping that I don't take my eye off the ball again. But for me, maintenance was just as hard as losing it in the first place, but without the highs of seeing the scale drop.

songbyrdsweet

20% is NOT abysmal and is not the 5% mentioned in the news article.

Thanks for the links though - bookmarking now!

Edit: and as many as you got

But that is only for one to two years. Less than 10% maintain it for 7 years...we are rapidly approaching that 5%. The rates are extremely low. Abysmal is an opinion. This specific study found these results based on the data analyzed. Other reviews or meta-analyses may have reached different conclusions based on their search criteria.

tedrickp

Gotcha. And I truly appreciate you linking those.

My initial reason for posting was because someone (not you) said every single study shows abysmal failure rate, and I wasn't sure if that was true and felt it was a pretty strong statement to make and not back up.

BTW - Was one of the studies you mentioned, the paper that the original news article referenced?

Here is an interesting study...

Tracked people from the NWCR who had successfully kept weight off for a year (followed them for 10 years after that):

http://www.ajpmonline.org/article/S0749-3797(13)00528-X/abstract

Mean weight loss was 31.3 kg (95% CI=30.8, 31.9) at baseline, 23.8 kg (95% CI=23.2, 24.4) at 5 years and 23.1±0.4 kg (95% CI=22.3, 23.9) at 10 years. More than 87% of participants were estimated to be still maintaining at least a 10% weight loss at Years 5 and 10. Larger initial weight losses and longer duration of maintenance were associated with better long-term outcomes. Decreases in leisure-time physical activity, dietary restraint, and frequency of self-weighing and increases in percentage of energy intake from fat and disinhibition were associated with greater weight regain.

Iwishyouwell

Can you link some of those studies?

I don't believe that every study shows abysmal failure rates, but unless you direct me towards them I won't know for sure. It's also impossible to judge the methodology used in said studies.

Doing my own search through studies - i haven't found a) the paper mentioned in this news article b) the abysmal failure rates.

You could save me a lot of time by linking the ones you mention with abysmal failure rates, thanks.

I don't care enough about whether you believe me, or any study, to go through the trouble of searching for articles and studies on the topic I've come across through the years.

You can believe whatever percentages you like, whatever helps your road. Has nothing to do with me sir.

tedrickp

I don't care enough about whether you believe me, or any study, to go through the trouble of searching for articles and studies on the topic I've come across through the years.

You can believe whatever percentages you like, whatever helps your road. Has nothing to do with me sir.

Oh ok, thanks, now I know in the future not to try and have a discussion with you. Will save us both a lot of time.

Edit: and I am not being snarky, say that with all due respect and honesty.

Iwishyouwell

I don't care enough about whether you believe me, or any study, to go through the trouble of searching for articles and studies on the topic I've come across through the years.

You can believe whatever percentages you like, whatever helps your road. Has nothing to do with me sir.

Oh ok, thanks, now I know in the future not to try and have a discussion with you. Will save us both a lot of time.

I don't post on MFP to have a discussion specifically with you. I don't even know who the hell you are LOL. So yes, that works just fine.

tedrickp

I just enjoy the discussion in general and am open to learning from everyone - so when someone says something as absolute as you did - I ask for them to back it up since a lot of people read the forums and it's a chance for us all to learn.

I didn't mean a one on one :laugh:

Iwishyouwell

Can you link some of those studies?

I don't believe that every study shows abysmal failure rates, but unless you direct me towards them I won't know for sure. It's also impossible to judge the methodology used in said studies.

Doing my own search through studies - i haven't found a) the paper mentioned in this news article b) the abysmal failure rates.

You could save me a lot of time by linking the ones you mention with abysmal failure rates, thanks.

Here's one stating only 20% can maintain a 10% weight loss for 2 years:

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov.ezproxy.lib.vt.edu:8080/pubmed/22023231

Less than 10% can maintain weight loss for 7 years:

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov.ezproxy.lib.vt.edu:8080/pmc/articles/PMC3139793/

Another one stating that 20% of individuals can maintain a 10% weight loss for just 1 year, and that on average 30-35% of weight is regained within the first year with an average of 1.8kg gained per year after that:

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov.ezproxy.lib.vt.edu:8080/pmc/articles/PMC2676575/

I donno, how many do you want?

Particularly alarming in said studies is the definition of "success". Unfortunately a good percentage of the people who make up the "success stories" fit the following criteria:

A. People who never had much to lose in the first place.
B. People who didn't lose much, gained back some, and managed to maintain very small losses.

The numbers for people who have had substantial weight to lose, say in the 50 and up category, are worse. It's an anomaly for people like me, who've lost over a 100 lbs, to shed that much, but even more so for us to maintain it for the long term.

Anecdotal evidence doesn't even help much here. Unfortunately, in my experience, the data matches up very well with the people I've experienced in my day to day life. Most of the fat people I know have been fat for a long time. The few that have managed to lose a considerable amount eventually regained. I think I know maybe one or two people who shed weight and kept it off. My great Aunt, who passed a couple years ago, did so before I was born and stayed very skinny for the latter 30 or so years of her life, eventually passing into her 90s.

These odds don't scare me. I've been in the majority and regained a lot of weight. They simply remind me that this is a life long journey, and that I will always need to be mindful of my food and activity level if I want to avoid the nightmare that is obesity/fatness.

raindawg

It's nice to know that after five years keeping it off now, I am an official outlier .... whoo hoo!

MelodyandBarbells

^^^ Congrats, outlier!!

I agree about the fuzzy definitions of success or failure. I mean if you lost 100 lbs and slowly gained back 20, is that really failure??

vismal

^^^ Congrats, outlier!!

I agree about the fuzzy definitions of success or failure. I mean if you lost 100 lbs and slowly gained back 20, is that really failure??

This is a good point. When all is said and done and I near my genetic muscular potential I will be about 20 lbs heavier then at my lightest. But it was intentional weight gain in the form of muscle mass. Does that mean I failed at "keeping the weight off"?

kommodevaran

If the problem is that most regain after dieting, then the solution is for everybody to never get off the diet.

kjarvo

I think it's a darn good article. I didn't see where it said it had nothing to do with people sticking to a plan. My take was that is EXACTLY what it was saying. And statistics are statistics. We can all think we are going to be that success story. We are going to be the one to keep it off forever. But, the reality is that only 5% of us will.

I've seen so many posts bragging about keeping the weight off for a whole year or even two. I've done that too. Several times.

Indeed. I guess it's not very motivational to say this, but most people who think they're going to keep the weight off for 10 years through self-discipline and force of will are deluding themselves. I made it seven years once

I remind my self that I cannot have this 'perfect' body', when I eventually get pregnant, I will put on weight which I will have to lose again and your whole chest area basically goes to pot There is no knowing what the future holds, so saying 'I will never put on weight again' is naive.

songbyrdsweet

^^^ Congrats, outlier!!

I agree about the fuzzy definitions of success or failure. I mean if you lost 100 lbs and slowly gained back 20, is that really failure??

Most of these studies define 'success'. For instance, success could be defined as maintaining a loss of 10% of your original body weight for 2 years. If you weighed 300 lbs and lost 30 and kept it off for two years, you would be considered successful. If you lost 100 lbs--33% of your bodyweight--then gained 20, bringing you down to an 80 lb loss, you still would have lost 27% of your bodyweight and would be considered successful.

Iwishyouwell

Most of these studies define 'success'. For instance, success could be defined as maintaining a loss of 10% of your original body weight for 2 years. If you weighed 300 lbs and lost 30 and kept it off for two years, you would be considered successful.

Yes and that blows me over.

My highest weight was 320. Maintaining just a 10% loss would leave me as a "success" story at 288. Now I've lost over a 100lbs, am knocking at the door of onederland, and my ultimate goal is likely somewhere between 160-170.

When I reach that, if I was to gain back up to 288, but never go over that, I would be considered a "success" story in a study.

But I'd be anything but.

shapefitter

This gives me more motivation to weigh daily and never stop logging! Thanks!

Ditto :grumble:

songbyrdsweet

Most of these studies define 'success'. For instance, success could be defined as maintaining a loss of 10% of your original body weight for 2 years. If you weighed 300 lbs and lost 30 and kept it off for two years, you would be considered successful.

Yes and that blows me over.

My highest weight was 320. Maintaining just a 10% loss would leave me as a "success" story at 288. Now I've lost over a 100lbs, am knocking at the door of onederland, and my ultimate goal is likely somewhere between 160-170.

When I reach that, if I was to gain back up to 288, but never go over that, I would be considered a "success" story in a study.

But I'd be anything but.

10% is commonly used because that level of weight reduction is the point at which health improvements are seen...aka lowered blood pressure, improved lipids and insulin sensitivity, etc. It doesn't sound like a lot, but losing 32 lbs of adipose tissue would have a big metabolic effect.

Iwishyouwell

Most of these studies define 'success'. For instance, success could be defined as maintaining a loss of 10% of your original body weight for 2 years. If you weighed 300 lbs and lost 30 and kept it off for two years, you would be considered successful.

Yes and that blows me over.

My highest weight was 320. Maintaining just a 10% loss would leave me as a "success" story at 288. Now I've lost over a 100lbs, am knocking at the door of onederland, and my ultimate goal is likely somewhere between 160-170.

When I reach that, if I was to gain back up to 288, but never go over that, I would be considered a "success" story in a study.

But I'd be anything but.

10% is commonly used because that level of weight reduction is the point at which health improvements are seen...aka lowered blood pressure, improved lipids and insulin sensitivity, etc. It doesn't sound like a lot, but losing 32 lbs of adipose tissue would have a big metabolic effect.

Definitely. I always tell people that they'd be surprised how much even a relatively small loss can do to improve your health.

Just imagining losing up to half my body weight, regaining close to 130 lbs, and still remaining a part of the rare "success stories, thus skewing that already small percentage incredibly.

It makes me wonder how many people who lost substantial weight truly managed to keep off at least 80% of their fat loss.

punkrockgoth

I've read and reread this article and where does it say that they revert back to old habits? It doesn't say that anywhere that 95% of people revert to old eating habits and a sedentary lifestyle.