Data, Data, Data!
Cortelli
Posts: 1,369 Member
So I had been crunching data on a lazy Friday afternoon (started this post last night), and I find it very interesting. I have tracked total calorie intake and total exercise expenditure on MFP since early November of last year. I’ve done the best I can at making accurate entries both in terms of calories consumed and expended through exercise.
For a long period (Nov through late March) I was mostly cutting – attempting to lose body fat and attempting to preserve muscle mass by regularly eating at a calorie deficit and engaging in both regular progressive overload strength training and cardio. My strength training was mostly a homemade routine that was disproportionately upper body focused as I mistakenly thought I’d preserve my lower body for heavy cardio and HIIT activities (a regret, by the way). In this period there was approximately 5 – 6 weeks where I was consciously allowing myself to eat around maintenance – during the year-end holidays and for a few weeks before I moved into a bulking phase.
Using the data tracked (having moved it into an Excel spreadsheet) I was able to compare my expected and actual weight loss using 3-, 5-, and 7-day average weights (weighing just about everyday), and to therefore figure out what my approximate TDEE was. Here is the output data for that long cut:
From March of this year through early June I completed my first bulk. I went with a “dirty” bulk (significant excess calories – targeting approximately 750 extra calories per day, or an expected gain of 1.5 lbs per week), wanting to ensure I’d gain as much muscle as I was capable of, even if that meant I added more fat than I might otherwise need in order to gain the same amount of muscle. Basically, I wanted to get a sense of how quickly I could add muscle, regardless of the fat being added. Here is the output data for that bulking period:
After a long vacation where I tracked food but focused on enjoying myself (hoping to be around maintenance), and didn't do any real strength training, I started a cut phase to shed the fat I had added during my bulk. That cut is ongoing, and I am cutting very slowly in another attempt to preserve muscle mass with relatively little body fat to shed. I’ve been targeting roughly 0.5 pounds per week loss, or a deficit of approximately 250 cals per day. Here is the current state of play with my cut:
So – what did I find so interesting that I thought other MFPers and data nerds might enjoy? Recognizing that my tracking is as accurate as I could get but is still an estimate, the data show a surprisingly consistent TDEE estimate whether cutting or bulking. The data basically confirms for me that my TDEE including regular weight training but excluding any cardio exercises (since those are sporadic, inconsistent, and not present at all during my bulking phase) is roughly 2330 calories – or basically somewhere between 2300 and 2350 cals.
I can’t underestimate how important and helpful it is knowing these numbers with a degree of certainty beyond any of the various online calculators that attempt to compute a NEAT or TDEE total simply based on height, weight, rough estimates of exercise activity, etc. I know *my* numbers based on almost a year’s worth of real data (as estimated as it must necessarily be).
I strongly encourage all of you interested in getting more precise about your calorie needs, and what you need to do to lose or gain weight at a certain pace, to track, track, track, and periodically analyze, analyze, analyze. By comparing your expected losses / gains to your actual losses / gains on your actual calorie intake and expenditure, you can determine with specificity *your* calorie needs – and then it is all about setting goals and sticking to the calorie requirements to meet them. No more wondering why X is happening or why Y isn’t happening (assuming no medical issues). It is a good feeling to have the truth laid bare before you and know it’s just up to you to use it to make whatever changes you want.
Data can set you free!
For a long period (Nov through late March) I was mostly cutting – attempting to lose body fat and attempting to preserve muscle mass by regularly eating at a calorie deficit and engaging in both regular progressive overload strength training and cardio. My strength training was mostly a homemade routine that was disproportionately upper body focused as I mistakenly thought I’d preserve my lower body for heavy cardio and HIIT activities (a regret, by the way). In this period there was approximately 5 – 6 weeks where I was consciously allowing myself to eat around maintenance – during the year-end holidays and for a few weeks before I moved into a bulking phase.
Using the data tracked (having moved it into an Excel spreadsheet) I was able to compare my expected and actual weight loss using 3-, 5-, and 7-day average weights (weighing just about everyday), and to therefore figure out what my approximate TDEE was. Here is the output data for that long cut:
From March of this year through early June I completed my first bulk. I went with a “dirty” bulk (significant excess calories – targeting approximately 750 extra calories per day, or an expected gain of 1.5 lbs per week), wanting to ensure I’d gain as much muscle as I was capable of, even if that meant I added more fat than I might otherwise need in order to gain the same amount of muscle. Basically, I wanted to get a sense of how quickly I could add muscle, regardless of the fat being added. Here is the output data for that bulking period:
After a long vacation where I tracked food but focused on enjoying myself (hoping to be around maintenance), and didn't do any real strength training, I started a cut phase to shed the fat I had added during my bulk. That cut is ongoing, and I am cutting very slowly in another attempt to preserve muscle mass with relatively little body fat to shed. I’ve been targeting roughly 0.5 pounds per week loss, or a deficit of approximately 250 cals per day. Here is the current state of play with my cut:
So – what did I find so interesting that I thought other MFPers and data nerds might enjoy? Recognizing that my tracking is as accurate as I could get but is still an estimate, the data show a surprisingly consistent TDEE estimate whether cutting or bulking. The data basically confirms for me that my TDEE including regular weight training but excluding any cardio exercises (since those are sporadic, inconsistent, and not present at all during my bulking phase) is roughly 2330 calories – or basically somewhere between 2300 and 2350 cals.
I can’t underestimate how important and helpful it is knowing these numbers with a degree of certainty beyond any of the various online calculators that attempt to compute a NEAT or TDEE total simply based on height, weight, rough estimates of exercise activity, etc. I know *my* numbers based on almost a year’s worth of real data (as estimated as it must necessarily be).
I strongly encourage all of you interested in getting more precise about your calorie needs, and what you need to do to lose or gain weight at a certain pace, to track, track, track, and periodically analyze, analyze, analyze. By comparing your expected losses / gains to your actual losses / gains on your actual calorie intake and expenditure, you can determine with specificity *your* calorie needs – and then it is all about setting goals and sticking to the calorie requirements to meet them. No more wondering why X is happening or why Y isn’t happening (assuming no medical issues). It is a good feeling to have the truth laid bare before you and know it’s just up to you to use it to make whatever changes you want.
Data can set you free!
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Replies
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Congratulations!
I would do this if I knew how to but I don't. I see the word "data" and my brain turns into sloppy mush.0 -
Congratulations!
I would do this if I knew how to but I don't. I see the word "data" and my brain turns into sloppy mush.
Phaedra - I am going to try and clean up my own spreadsheet to make it more user-friendly, and then convert it into a Google doc or something so it is easier to share. It is not too terribly difficult, but some familiarity with Excel is necessary to create it (though hopefully not use it). I figure a few folks might like something like this but can't really do it on their own.
MFP user EvgeniZyntix has posted an Excel spreadsheet that also imports data from MFP - though I could never get it to work for me for some reason. It works for lots of other folks. Mine, I have to manually enter data (weight, calories, exercise cals, etc.), but after an initial entry of past data, it is child's play of a few minutes per week to update the spreadsheet.0 -
Great post!! So cool you *know* your daily calorie level!! Great info and great results!:happy:0
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I'm in the same boat as Pheadra. Would love to know how many calories I could eat and still lose 3-4 lbs a week. Right now I'm not losing much (.4 lbs this last week) and that's not enough to keep me motivated. I've logged religiously and as accurately as possible my calorie intake (average of 1,291) and calories spent during exercise (1211). I do cardio in the am and then cardio and weights in the pm. Am I not eating enough? I just cant figure it out and I'm VERY FRUSTRATED.0
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I'm in the same boat as Pheadra. Would love to know how many calories I could eat and still lose 3-4 lbs a week. Right now I'm not losing much (.4 lbs this last week) and that's not enough to keep me motivated. I've logged religiously and as accurately as possible my calorie intake (average of 1,291) and calories spent during exercise (1211). I do cardio in the am and then cardio and weights in the pm. Am I not eating enough? I just cant figure it out and I'm VERY FRUSTRATED.
3 - 4 pounds a week is super aggressive. Daresay not possible in any manner that might be considered healthy. (You can lose very rapidly when you first begin, but that is mostly shedding a bunch of water weight).
The keys to getting specific about what you routinely need from calories to maintain (and therefore to lose or gain) is to scrupulously log everything you're consuming, using accurate measurements (weighing your food whenever possible), and to do your very best to log exercise burns (which tend to be wildly over-inflated in the MFP database and even, in my limited experience, with HRMs). Also very helpful, IMHO, to weigh yourself with the same scale every day in the same circumstances (i.e., morning, nude, after doing whatever business you might need to do). Some people are too emotionally affected by the number on the scale to stick with this, but I still think it is better to work hard to desensitize yourself to scale swings and reap the benefits of regular weight data points - you'll hopefully come to understand that each weigh-in is a snapshot in time, and one snapshot doesn't really help all that much compared to a lot of snapshots over time. I occasionally vary by 5 pounds day to day, and if I were to weigh once in the morning and then in the evening the next day, that variance could probably approach 10 pounds.
Do this tracking and weighing for a considerable stretch to try and take some "noise" out of the data (random ups and downs) - I think "considerable" here means minimum of 4 weeks and better 6 or 8 weeks, especially for women who are ovulating and may experience some wild swings due to their cycles; and unfortunately it can't be right when you start a new diet or workout regime - your body reacts very differently to new approaches / changes, so you have to get into a routine and then be patient. Patience is so very key and unfortunately many of us are so focused on making change happen NOW and get frustrated when things don't go exactly to plan in the short term.0 -
I created a spreadsheet for myself as well, to track my maintenance tdee. I just started this week and I am loving it so far. My concern with maintenance was that my activity level changes as the seasons change, as does my motivation. So I wanted a spreadsheet to show me what effect my activity level has on my weightloss. I created a rating system on how I rate the activity level for each day, and it pulls a TDEE estimate based on one of the calculators as a starting point. I hope that the information I get will help discover my true TDEE numbers. I also think that it gave me a reason to be motivated about maintenance because I'm kind of a nerd when it comes to spreadsheets and data analysis. I think I missed my calling in life. LOL.
We shall see.0 -
I would be very interested in getting this worksheet when it is cleaned up. I don't have much data to go off of. I've only been tracking consistently every single day for 2 weeks now. However, it would be nice to know that I have it or to start off now, so I wouldn't have to do the numbers all at once.0
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Thank you for your input, i appreciate it greatly. You probably are correct in that I've set an unrealistic goal for myself of losing 3-4 lbs a week but MFP came up with 3.8 lbs when I enter in my data so I thought that it might not all be a pipe dream. I have 70 pounds to lose (and I won't be a twig after doing so) so again, I thought it was doable. Turning 50 the end of this month and wanting to lose 20 lbs. by then has been a huge motivator for me and since these first two weeks haven't resulted in what I thought it would/should I've been very frustrated and disappointed. I'm working harder than I ever have and I had hoped I would see great results.
I actually do weigh myself every morning (first thing, nude, after doing my business)
and I try very hard to just view it as "it is what it is" but secretly I always hope to see a lower number. I also weigh and measure my food daily so feel I have a pretty good handle on that aspect. I can only hope that MFP has close to actual calorie counts for the food that I look up and when exercising I use the calculations of the equipment that I use, thinking that it would be a more accurate calculation after putting in my age and weight.
Patience is alway hard but I've got to see some positive (or negative as the case may be) results. I've committed to six weeks so I will keep plugging on and hopefully something will kick in and work.0 -
MFP user EvgeniZyntix has posted an Excel spreadsheet that also imports data from MFP - though I could never get it to work for me for some reason. It works for lots of other folks. Mine, I have to manually enter data (weight, calories, exercise cals, etc.), but after an initial entry of past data, it is child's play of a few minutes per week to update the spreadsheet.
How do you find an user? I tried on the "find a member" and it didn't work. I was trying to find the spreadsheet. I've read multiple posts about this and it still confuses me :huh: it would be helpful0 -
MFP user EvgeniZyntix has posted an Excel spreadsheet that also imports data from MFP - though I could never get it to work for me for some reason. It works for lots of other folks. Mine, I have to manually enter data (weight, calories, exercise cals, etc.), but after an initial entry of past data, it is child's play of a few minutes per week to update the spreadsheet.
How do you find an user? I tried on the "find a member" and it didn't work. I was trying to find the spreadsheet. I've read multiple posts about this and it still confuses me :huh: it would be helpful
I spelled his username wrong! You would have found him had I not misspelled. Here is his profile: http://www.myfitnesspal.com/profile/evgenizyntx
And here (from his profile) is the blog post where he posted his spreadsheet and various updates, etc.: http://www.myfitnesspal.com/blog/EvgeniZyntx/view/new-mfp-data-export-tool-major-update-659927
Inspired me to work on my own when I couldn't get the extractor to work correctly for me and/or wanted to do something different, but an amazing piece of work and hope it works for you.0 -
If you like to crunch numbers, how about throwing in lean body mass measurements into the mix and some macro breakdowns. That might shed some more light on your situation.0
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:flowerforyou: Much appreciated0
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Thank you for your input, i appreciate it greatly. You probably are correct in that I've set an unrealistic goal for myself of losing 3-4 lbs a week but MFP came up with 3.8 lbs when I enter in my data so I thought that it might not all be a pipe dream. I have 70 pounds to lose (and I won't be a twig after doing so) so again, I thought it was doable. Turning 50 the end of this month and wanting to lose 20 lbs. by then has been a huge motivator for me and since these first two weeks haven't resulted in what I thought it would/should I've been very frustrated and disappointed. I'm working harder than I ever have and I had hoped I would see great results.
I actually do weigh myself every morning (first thing, nude, after doing my business) and I try very hard to just view it as "it is what it is" but secretly I always hope to see a lower number. I also weigh and measure my food daily so feel I have a pretty good handle on that aspect. I can only hope that MFP has close to actual calorie counts for the food that I look up and when exercising I use the calculations of the equipment that I use, thinking that it would be a more accurate calculation after putting in my age and weight.
Patience is alway hard but I've got to see some positive (or negative as the case may be) results. I've committed to six weeks so I will keep plugging on and hopefully something will kick in and work.
Well, we all need to find motivation where we can, but you'll have a lot better time of it if you view it as a marathon and not a sprint. You'll like the end results better, too, and almost certainly have longer-term success in maintaining a desired weight if you can try and take it slowly.
I'm not sure how MFP came up with this 3.8 lb rate for you - to my knowledge it offers a target loss rate of no higher than 2 lbs per week. If you just inputted all your info and then manually selected the lowest calorie target it lets you submit (1200 cals) then to put it bluntly you're doing it wrong. You'll eventually feel starved, weak, and really, really cranky if you're trying to lose that much weight, consistently, for any real period of time. To put this in perspective - to lose 4 lbs per week, you need to create a *daily* calorie deficit of 2000 calories! That's a deficit! MFP recommends netting - that is, total daily calories after eating back any exercise calories - of no less than 1200 calories. To achieve a 2000 calorie deficit, you'd need to be coming from a daily requirement of greater than 3200 calories.
I actually lost at a rate of about 2 lbs per week for weeks and weeks before I joined MFP, and continued to lose at between 1 and 1.5 pounds per week until I got really close to a goal weight (some would say that is too fast). I started with what I thought was about 50 pounds to lose and later decided it was about 60 pounds, so not too far off from where you are (and I'm "mature" as well!) I know this isn't terribly helpful or what you want to hear, but I think you'll be much better off if you set a more reasonable weight loss target that is manageable, and let something else (51st b-day?) motivate you. You just don't have enough time to shed a bunch of weight before your 50th and do it in any sort of reasonable way.
As to the scale - yeah, when losing we probably all secretly want to see that needle move, and in the right direction, every morning. Thing is that it just doesn't work that way. I haven't found any alternative to forcing oneself to get past allowing the daily feedback influencing one's motivation. Weight moves all over the place even without any real movement in fat stores; just one more hardship that comes with attention to weight loss.0 -
I'm in the same boat as Pheadra. Would love to know how many calories I could eat and still lose 3-4 lbs a week. Right now I'm not losing much (.4 lbs this last week) and that's not enough to keep me motivated. I've logged religiously and as accurately as possible my calorie intake (average of 1,291) and calories spent during exercise (1211). I do cardio in the am and then cardio and weights in the pm. Am I not eating enough? I just cant figure it out and I'm VERY FRUSTRATED.
Am I reading this right...you are netting 8 calories per day average?
In other words, you are taking in 8 more calories than you burn in exercise each day (averaged)?
If this is the case, I'm not surprised you aren't losing weight. That is a huge deficit and likely an emergency to your body. How are you not starving, weak, and exhausted?0 -
If you like to crunch numbers, how about throwing in lean body mass measurements into the mix and some macro breakdowns. That might shed some more light on your situation.
I personally don't worry too much about macro breakdowns over time. I have daily minimums I try hard to hit for protein and fat, and I do a decent job at meeting or exceeding them. SO a view of it overtime isn't really important to me.
As to LBM calcs - I consider these critical personally, but thought it beyond the scope of this post. Part of the reason why is that it is, IMHO, hard to get reliable measures more than every so often. I have the good fortune of being able to get a cheap hydro every three months through a mobile van that comes to my gym, and I paired it up once with a DEXA scan the same morning as one of the hydros for a comparison. But getting regular hydros / DEXAs / bodpods is impractical for most and relatively expensive for most, and I don't have enough experience with calipers to trust myself or someone else. I disregard entirely all the bio-electrical impedance measurements because I've found them to be totally inaccurate. But if you can afford and have access to a regular hydro or DEXA scan, I wholeheartedly support getting one every so often, when losing or gaining, as a way to know for yourself how effective you are (genetically and how your approach is working) at preserving lean mass when losing weight and adding lean mass when gaining weight.0 -
How did you estimate your TDEE? You backed it out from your intake numbers and actual weight loss?
I did 6 months of food/weight tracking with a Fitbit once and my loss was what my deficit suggested (35lbs.), so I felt pretty comfortable at the time with my Fitbit TDEE estimates. That was in 2010, though, and they tweak their stuff so who knows now. Though I suppose I could do a little checking...
Just checked the last 3 months... Predicted loss: 8.5 lbs. Actual loss 8.5 lbs. Pretty good considering I don't weigh food! 0 -
After the first three days of being really worn out ( which I think was from cutting out a bunch of carbs) I feel fine.0
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I got the 3.8 from after putting in my totals for the day and then hitting finished that it said "if every day was like today in five weeks you'd weigh ***. It figured out to be 3.8 lbs.0
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How did you estimate your TDEE? You backed it out from your intake numbers and actual weight loss?
I did 6 months of food/weight tracking with a Fitbit once and my loss was what my deficit suggested, so I felt pretty comfortable at the time with my Fitbit TDEE estimates. That was in 2010, though, and they tweak their stuff so who knows now. Though I suppose I could do a little checking from the last 2 months of my food logging...
Basically, yes.
It's not a "true" TDEE as I am considering it a TDEE which includes my daily life and my weightlifting. The lifting has been consistent over the course of losing and gaining. Cardio is not. I did virtually no cardio while bulking, and even when cutting I don't have a fixed cardio program. So I have my "modified" TDEE that encompasses daily life plus my weight lifting (don't count those as burned calories) and then I count as additional calorie burns my cardio burns (for which I try to keep reasonable estimates, which tend to be lower than MFP or machine-reported burns).
And then my spreadsheet adds the average daily calories actually consumed (netted after cardio), plus the calories represented by actual weight loss at a rate of 3500 cals per pound, spread over the number of days in the measurement period. In the little photos I shared, the three boxes highlighted in blue in the lower right are the TDEE estimates based on actual results. The numbers above that are the expected weight loss if my TDEE were 2250, 2300, etc.0 -
I got the 3.8 from after putting in my totals for the day and then hitting finished that it said "if every day was like today in five weeks you'd weigh ***. It figured out to be 3.8 lbs.
I think you'd do well to read a couple of threads with great information. Both are "stickied" at the top of this forum or the "Getting Started" forum.
The Step-By-Step Guide to Losing Weight with MyFitnessPal: http://fit101.org/the-step-by-step-guide-to-losing-weight-with-myfitnesspal/
A Guide to Get You Started on Your Path to Sexypants: http://www.myfitnesspal.com/topics/show/1080242-a-guide-to-get-you-started-on-your-path-to-sexypants
I'm not saying these threads should be seen as gospel; but some really important concepts and ideas that are worth your time considering, and worth figuring out if and how to incorporate some of the ideas in your own plan to get to a goal weight.0 -
Thank you for your input, i appreciate it greatly. You probably are correct in that I've set an unrealistic goal for myself of losing 3-4 lbs a week but MFP came up with 3.8 lbs when I enter in my data so I thought that it might not all be a pipe dream. I have 70 pounds to lose (and I won't be a twig after doing so) so again, I thought it was doable. Turning 50 the end of this month and wanting to lose 20 lbs. by then has been a huge motivator for me and since these first two weeks haven't resulted in what I thought it would/should I've been very frustrated and disappointed. I'm working harder than I ever have and I had hoped I would see great results.
I actually do weigh myself every morning (first thing, nude, after doing my business) and I try very hard to just view it as "it is what it is" but secretly I always hope to see a lower number. I also weigh and measure my food daily so feel I have a pretty good handle on that aspect. I can only hope that MFP has close to actual calorie counts for the food that I look up and when exercising I use the calculations of the equipment that I use, thinking that it would be a more accurate calculation after putting in my age and weight.
Patience is alway hard but I've got to see some positive (or negative as the case may be) results. I've committed to six weeks so I will keep plugging on and hopefully something will kick in and work.
I have lost an average of slightly over 3.5lbs/week for 20 weeks now. However, I started off with 200+ lbs to lose, not 70. At 70 lbs to lose, your safe, effective max loss per week is probably 1.5lbs or so.0 -
I have lost an average of slightly over 3.5lbs/week for 20 weeks now. However, I started off with 200+ lbs to lose, not 70. At 70 lbs to lose, your safe, effective max loss per week is probably 1.5lbs or so.
Impressive! And well done! :flowerforyou:0 -
Thank you again for your help. I'll read the articles and reassess my goals.0
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