Probability of gaining it all back... and more

porffor

I've been a yo-yo dieter many times before and the only thing that is working for me is the acceptance that I'm no longer dieting.
I weigh daily, I watch what I eat but don't eat 'diet food' I do use slimfast bars as replacement when I'm busy and could end up eating rubbish - i.e. when I go riding I have a bar afterwards instead of biscuits and it's my lunch.. otherwise i'd have biscuits with my tea then lunch after.

I have been losing since January and do go up and down the lbs a litle (a few), I have hit a bit of a stall but this as said is a long term thing for me not a 'diet' that will stop.

laclulover

At the age of 60 I have been on more diets than I can count. They all work, but making a lifetime commitment is not as easy as people think. Right now I'm 5'7" and weigh 200 pounds. Though it is not horrendous, I have weighed much more in my life. I have had diabetes for 20 years and I have decided to have WLS (weight loss surgery). This may seem an easy way out to some, but I haven't much more time to try another diet. I need help to stay in control and the surgery will hopefully be the tool that does that. I wouldn't recommend this to someone who has only a few pounds to lose, or is young, but for me, it is the right move. I wish you all luck with staying on your new lifestyle. You are all right, it is a lifestyle change you need to make, diets are the answer.

aqua_zumba_fan

That is exactky why those '' I eat 1200 caloreis a day ...or less...and lose weight no problem, I am followed by my doctor, I know what is best for me, I am short so I can eat less'' make me want to cry. Because it is not sustainable. They are messing with their metabolism so in order to maintain their weight loss, they will have to eat 1400-1600 calories a day. Those who eat more, will gain the weight back. Those who feed their metabolism and make it a fat burning machine will maintain at 2000 to 2500 calories a day. Alot less likely to gain the weight back.

Seeing all these posts about it being bad to eat 1200 calories is interesting as MFP recommended I eat that amount (I'm currently 5'1 and 149lbs) in order to lose 1lb per week. I wonder how they see it when they are recommending this to people. I do eat back my exercise calories. So do people think I should be upping my calories? I don't find it that hard to stick to 1200 really, and I do have a day a week roughly where I don't worry so much about sticking to it.

FearAnLoathing

That is exactky why those '' I eat 1200 caloreis a day ...or less...and lose weight no problem, I am followed by my doctor, I know what is best for me, I am short so I can eat less'' make me want to cry. Because it is not sustainable. They are messing with their metabolism so in order to maintain their weight loss, they will have to eat 1400-1600 calories a day. Those who eat more, will gain the weight back. Those who feed their metabolism and make it a fat burning machine will maintain at 2000 to 2500 calories a day. Alot less likely to gain the weight back.

I eat 1200 or less and for the 5 months I upped my calories to a 2000 I didnt gain even 1 pound back,because I do know whats best for me and works for me more so than random people on the internet

elfie9863

Statistics are notoriously flaky. After all, do you know that 75% of people believe every statistic they read?

BAWHAHAHAH!!!! Too True!!!!

nicothepotato

My body likes to be at 155. When I gain weight, as soon as I start eating healthy again, I quickly drop to 155. Unless I diet, I can't seem to drop below that and as soon as I stop, it comes back with in a week. I'm hoping that continuing a healthy lifestyle, I can eventually hit my goal of 140 and stay there.

PowerEqualsStrengthOverTime

Well. I hit my original goal weight in Sept 2010 and I maintained that without any trouble from then until May 2011 (so I went through the holiday season, a hip injury AND a back injury - both of which kept me out of the gym... yet I still maintained it!). I upped my calories in May as an experiment and I lost another 5-7lbs. I have been maintaining 143-145lbs since May 2011. So, in reality I've maintained my original goal for almost a year now. I've adjusted things to make sure that I can sustain this long term.

I workout 2-3 days a week for 60 mins each day. I know this is something I can do long term - and isn't affecting my everyday life.

I eat 2200-2500 net calories a day and I maintain. I know that this is a range that is comfortable for my body.

I've found a weight that is comfortable for me and easy to maintain. It is on the "high end" of the charts for my height but I am comfortable with where I am. I don't struggle or feel like I am fighting my body to remain at this weight.

I won't let myself be the in 80-90% that gain it back because I've changed my lifestyle and don't view this as a 'diet'. I eat what I want, when I want - but I do it in moderation.

:flowerforyou: MAN, great job!! :flowerforyou:

bellinachuchina

Here's some hope, and given without enabling the lack of people's progress

This is a difficult task, I'm not gonna lie. I have sustained over a hundred pounds lost for almost a year and a half now. I lost my weight being relentless in every aspect of the journey. I ate 1200cal, and was active through my current lifestyle of being a student and Mom to two toddlers, but didn't habitually exercise at the gym. I did home videos (tae bo, yoga, core rhythms, zumba, etc.) and stayed active in the outdoors by swimming, bike riding, and some walking/running. I only ate small portions of calorie-ridden items, and I made myself accountable for any slip-up by exercising the overage away, or creating a larger deficit through intake the following day. It took me 11 months, reaching my goal in March 2010. I WANTED IT, simple as that. If you don't really want to lose bad enough, you'll find excuses not to.

To maintain, I eat between 1500-1700cals/day. I slowly incresed my cals from 1200, weighed myself often to note any fluctuations, and found my happy groove at my current intake level. It's obviously something I am capable of doing for life...I'm living it:flowerforyou:

I just finished a Statistics class at my University, received an A in it, and I can tell you that the study you speak of is from inferential stats. Meaning the researcher created a set of hypotheses about a population (i.e. Americans who've lost weight) & compared that to a sample of people that fall within that category, in order to see if there was a correlation between the two, leading the researcher to reject his Null hypothesis. Here's the thing: Who knows how large/small the tangible sample of people was, and/or who these people were? They could have been some of the most unmotivated, inactive, gluttonous losers (weight losers lol).

BASICALLY, you will never ever ever know the stats of every person in the US who has lost weight, so you shouldn't take any statistic to heart, especially one which has that tremendous of a population. Inferential stats, and even Descriptive stats, do not PROVE anything, they are merely predicted observations when used with populations. Hence why they usually contain: "On average", "In general".

I don't think you're "debbie downer", I just think you don't want to set yourself up for failure when/if you don't lose or gain some back, and be able to justify it based on something, just like anyone who doesn't want to be dissappointed. But since I've done it, and sustain it, I can tell you, DO NOT place your health and current body dissatisfaction in the hands of people trying to make money by getting published based on their "discovery". Yes, we are aware luck is against us to gain back, but that's b/c changing your life is hard work, mentally & physically. You don't need probability to know that. You CAN do this. Believe it, achieve it!

debbiequack

My body likes to be at 155. When I gain weight, as soon as I start eating healthy again, I quickly drop to 155. Unless I diet, I can't seem to drop below that and as soon as I stop, it comes back with in a week. I'm hoping that continuing a healthy lifestyle, I can eventually hit my goal of 140 and stay there.

Yes this is what the research suggests. I didn't find much re: "What WORKS to lose weight" but most agreed that healthy eating and exercise was good for you whether you dropped pounds or not.

Best,

Debbie

debbiequack

BASICALLY, you will never ever ever know the stats of every person in the US who has lost weight, so you shouldn't take any statistic to heart, especially one which has that tremendous of a population. Inferential stats, and even Descriptive stats, do not PROVE anything, they are merely predicted observations when used with populations. Hence why they usually contain: "On average", "In general".

I don't think you're "debbie downer", I just think you don't want to set yourself up for failure when/if you don't lose or gain some back, and be able to justify it based on something, just like anyone who doesn't want to be dissappointed. But since I've done it, and sustain it, I can tell you, DO NOT place your health and current body dissatisfaction in the hands of people trying to make money by getting published based on their "discovery". Yes, we are aware luck is against us to gain back, but that's b/c changing your life is hard work, mentally & physically. You don't need probability to know that. You CAN do this. Believe it, achieve it!

Hey, congrats! What you say is true about some of the research, but in the research where the took slim people and randomly put them into high/low calories groups, we are talking experimental design (it's been awhile, but I taught stats when I was in grad school). These studies don't depress me, really. They just get me thinking. What's sorely lacking (and I think what you are sort of pointing to) is that I can't really find an article about what that 10-20 percent DID to keep the weight off. We need more research on the successes (maybe even qualitative) to better understand, IMO. Also, the docs in these studies keep saying that regardless of the numbers, it's STILL good for your body to eat a healthy diet and exercise Luckily health is more of a goal of mine than looking good (though it's nice to look good!).

I know it's controversial, but I don't mind comparing weight loss to addiction and recovery. If people who sat down at an AA meeting were honest, they would say "most of us will relapse". The question is: how do you handle a relapse? Do you quit and give up? Do you get back on the wagon? It would be good to get a better understanding of those folks who never relapsed. What was it about their personality/behaviors that was different from the relapsers?

This is the kind of research that would be interesting to me.

All the best,

Debbie

withchaco

I just read an article by an expert in the field who stated that “our bodies have a weight they want to be”. He cited a study where lean and fit people were asked to eat 5000 cal daily and still, they only gained minimal amounts.

I think in most cases, it's BS to use that to explain obesity. It almost sounds like the "expert" is trying to undermine the importance of responsibility. To say obese people are obese because that's what their bodies naturally want to be, you'd need a study where obese people are asked to eat balanced meals at a caloric deficit and burn hundreds of calories through exercise daily for a prolonged period of time. If THAT study doesn't result in weight loss, now you have something to support the "obesity as a natural tendency" argument.

However, as we all know, most of us overweight folks can and do lose weight by sticking to such a lifestyle. People gain their weight back because they don't stick to their healthy lifestyle. Maintenance can be hard work, but I say if you have lost weight the right way... you also have what it takes to maintain.

I do agree, though, that every body is different. Two equally healthy, equally tall people can be very different sizes/ weight.

bellinachuchina

BASICALLY, you will never ever ever know the stats of every person in the US who has lost weight, so you shouldn't take any statistic to heart, especially one which has that tremendous of a population. Inferential stats, and even Descriptive stats, do not PROVE anything, they are merely predicted observations when used with populations. Hence why they usually contain: "On average", "In general".

I don't think you're "debbie downer", I just think you don't want to set yourself up for failure when/if you don't lose or gain some back, and be able to justify it based on something, just like anyone who doesn't want to be dissappointed. But since I've done it, and sustain it, I can tell you, DO NOT place your health and current body dissatisfaction in the hands of people trying to make money by getting published based on their "discovery". Yes, we are aware luck is against us to gain back, but that's b/c changing your life is hard work, mentally & physically. You don't need probability to know that. You CAN do this. Believe it, achieve it!

Hey, congrats! What you say is true about some of the research, but in the research where the took slim people and randomly put them into high/low calories groups, we are talking experimental design (it's been awhile, but I taught stats when I was in grad school). These studies don't depress me, really. They just get me thinking. What's sorely lacking (and I think what you are sort of pointing to) is that I can't really find an article about what that 10-20 percent DID to keep the weight off. We need more research on the successes (maybe even qualitative) to better understand, IMO. Also, the docs in these studies keep saying that regardless of the numbers, it's STILL good for your body to eat a healthy diet and exercise Luckily health is more of a goal of mine than looking good (though it's nice to look good!).

I know it's controversial, but I don't mind comparing weight loss to addiction and recovery. If people who sat down at an AA meeting were honest, they would say "most of us will relapse". The question is: how do you handle a relapse? Do you quit and give up? Do you get back on the wagon? It would be good to get a better understanding of those folks who never relapsed. What was it about their personality/behaviors that was different from the relapsers?

This is the kind of research that would be interesting to me.

All the best,

Debbie

I, too, would like to know what the successful people do, other than my approach, which is one that most people would probably find strict. For example, 9/10 times, I will not eat a cupcake, ice cream, pizza, fast food just b/c I'm at a family event, on vacation, or it's my cousin's b-day lol. I usually bring my own food (disguised as a dish offering) or eat prior. As you said, in regards to addiction, that's like giving an alcoholic a drink! I had to re-train my hunger cues, tastes, full-ness, everything dealing with consumption, it's simply not worth ruining my progress. I'm usually the calorie downer at events *shrugs* And your point about how people deal with diet-relapsing is really interesting, & for me, I handle it by practicing the same behavior that I did while losing. I normally create a deficit the next day to make up for my extra cals the previous day. The fact that I take responsibility and fix it, is a totally different response from when I was overweight.

I also agree, that personality plays a major role in this game, b/c in my view, it's mainly a psychological battle. I'm an extremely organized, controlling, "all-or-nothing" person, so I think that's why having a structured eating routine and food diary worked so well.

Best of luck :flowerforyou:

taso42_DELETED

I believe most people who "go on a diet" will indeed gain the weight back. That's why we keep reiterating around here that "diets" should be avoided. For long term success and well-being, adjust your lifestyle.

Crystalchaos72

studies show that yo-yo dieters are more healthy than obese people, so even if we gain it back, its still healthier than not trying to lose it at all.

Can you site the source to this study? I am pretty sure yo yo dieters are wreaking havoc on their metabolism, and when they do gain they gain more fat and do more damage to themselves. IMHO I feel that is misinformation.......

debbiequack

studies show that yo-yo dieters are more healthy than obese people, so even if we gain it back, its still healthier than not trying to lose it at all.

Can you site the source to this study? I am pretty sure yo yo dieters are wreaking havoc on their metabolism, and when they do gain they gain more fat and do more damage to themselves. IMHO I feel that is misinformation.......

Yes, in my readings I came across the opposite--- that yo yo dieting is actually WORSE for your health possibly, than being moderately obese.

Debbie

ninerbuff

So, most data suggests that 80-90 percent of us will gain most/all/more weight back, once we have lost. I just read an article by an expert in the field who stated that “our bodies have a weight they want to be”. He cited a study where lean and fit people were asked to eat 5000 cal daily and still, they only gained minimal amounts. On the other hand, most of us who have struggled with our weight, know in a very personal way, the disappointment that ensues when we start gaining back.

Some suggestions are, of course, to lose weight in a reasonable manner. Women who eat 1200 cal/day seem more likely to gain back than those who eat a more moderate figure. In fact, women who eat 1200 cal/day often gain back MORE than they started with. To make matters worse, yo-yoing seems to be associated with health risks.

So what will you do to be in the 10 percent of people who keep the weight off? Exercising three hours a day seems hardly sustainable.


Here's one study that has been cited: http://magazine.ucla.edu/exclusives/dieting_no-go/

I know I will sound like a negative Nancy or “Debbie Downer” but I really pose the question in terms of hopefulness. I personally eat reasonably and exercise 30-40 minutes a day, because I know I can sustain this with kids/without/while on vacation, and when I'm older. I also think that social support helps and MFP is great for that.

Thoughts?

There's no reason to work out 3 hours day unless that's your actual job. 1 hour a day 5-6 days a week isn't unreasonable and just having a diet within your BMR will keep the weight off.
Here's the problem: People reach goals.................then quit. They quit working out regularly, they quit eating reasonably and quit thinking it's not important.
Here it every time when I meet a new client who "needs" to get back into shape after losing weight previously.

Crystal_Rudolph

I am not in this fight for a "diet". I am fighting for my life! Why would I stop eating right and exercising when I reach my goal weight? That idea just seems absurd. This is a lifestyle change. The only people that will gain back the weight are the ones that think and treat this like a diet. We are fighting for our lives!!!

lodro

That is exactky why those '' I eat 1200 caloreis a day ...or less...and lose weight no problem, I am followed by my doctor, I know what is best for me, I am short so I can eat less'' make me want to cry. Because it is not sustainable. They are messing with their metabolism so in order to maintain their weight loss, they will have to eat 1400-1600 calories a day. Those who eat more, will gain the weight back. Those who feed their metabolism and make it a fat burning machine will maintain at 2000 to 2500 calories a day. Alot less likely to gain the weight back.

I am short and so I have not much wiggle room: my BMR is about 1400 calories/day, and so in order to maintain I need to stick close to that number. I did start getting more active though, so that gives the room to eat more calories, within reason. However, on non-exercise days I still eat to my MFP goal of 1200 calories/day, knowing full well, that some of the calorie tracking on MFP is guestimation, I think i'm eating close to my BMR. So far, I've been able to restrict calories well, as I let my body get used slowly to the calorie restriction. Because I knew that when I started to track and restrict calories, changing macronutrients to eat more proteins and fat and less carbohydrate, that there wouldn't be a way back. And that if I want to give myself the best preconditions for reasonable longevity, I would have to stick with what I'm doing now. So I'd better make this sustainable for me. And for now it is, but of course, I cannot predict the future. However, for now I've been hanging in there and I've been doing this since late last year. However, if I eat 1600 calories/day as I track it on MFP (i.e. not weighing and measuring everything, but knowing what serving sizes are in real world terms) I will gain. So I keep well below my BMR on non exercise days.

taso42_DELETED

That is exactky why those '' I eat 1200 caloreis a day ...or less...and lose weight no problem, I am followed by my doctor, I know what is best for me, I am short so I can eat less'' make me want to cry. Because it is not sustainable. They are messing with their metabolism so in order to maintain their weight loss, they will have to eat 1400-1600 calories a day. Those who eat more, will gain the weight back. Those who feed their metabolism and make it a fat burning machine will maintain at 2000 to 2500 calories a day. Alot less likely to gain the weight back.

I am short and so I have not much wiggle room: my BMR is about 1400 calories/day, and so in order to maintain I need to stick close to that number. I did start getting more active though, so that gives the room to eat more calories, within reason. However, on non-exercise days I still eat to my MFP goal of 1200 calories/day, knowing full well, that some of the calorie tracking on MFP is guestimation, I think i'm eating close to my BMR. So far, I've been able to restrict calories well, as I let my body get used slowly to the calorie restriction. Because I knew that when I started to track and restrict calories, changing macronutrients to eat more proteins and fat and less carbohydrate, that there wouldn't be a way back. And that if I want to give myself the best preconditions for reasonable longevity, I would have to stick with what I'm doing now. So I'd better make this sustainable for me. And for now it is, but of course, I cannot predict the future. However, for now I've been hanging in there and I've been doing this since late last year. However, if I eat 1600 calories/day as I track it on MFP (i.e. not weighing and measuring everything, but knowing what serving sizes are in real world terms) I will gain. So I keep well below my BMR on non exercise days.

Something doesn't add up here. If you're eating at or below BMR you would probably be losing weight and significant muscle mass, slowing your metabolism, and all that good stuff. You're not on bedrest are you? If you get up in the morning and walk to the bathroom and brush your teeth, then you're burning more than your BMR....

lodro

No, I'm not. I hover around the 60kg mark and have done for about 3 months now. you see, thermogenic adaptation is real, it is the body's defense mechanism against insanely low body fat percentages. Also, as I explained, I'm not fanatical about weighing and measuring, but when I did I noticed that I could be off by as much as 300 calories. So I suspect that I'm close to 1400 / 1500 calories a day, which is just about my BMR.

And of course - as I also explained - if I exercise more, I eat more, within reason, to sustain that exercise. The point is, of course, thin people really do eat less than fat people.