Report: 164 Million Obese Adults by 2030

StaceyL76

I found this information interesting. I hope you all do too.

Report: 164 Million Obese Adults by 2030
Half of American Adults Will Be Obese if Trends Continue

By Salynn Boyles
WebMD Medical News Reviewed by Laura J. Martin, MD


Aug. 25, 2011 -- Half of U.S. adults will be obese by 2030 if current trends continue, a new report shows.

About one in three adults in the U.S. are obese today. That figure will rise to half of American adults by 2030 if little is done to address the obesity epidemic, Columbia University researcher Claire Wang, PhD, said today at a news briefing in London.

With those numbers will likely come higher rates of chronic diseases including diabetes , heart disease , arthritis , and some types of cancer .

"Our projections find that rising obesity is going to result in increases in many of these chronic diseases which are disabling and expensive to treat," Wang said. "We have to act fast."

The briefing highlighted a special obesity edition of the The Lancet, published online today.

Impact of Increase in Obesity


Wang says expenditures to treat obesity-related diseases will cost the U.S. health care system up to an extra $66 billion each year by 2030, if the projections become reality.

Wang and colleagues from Columbia University and England's University of Oxford constructed a mathematical model to project obesity rates in the U.S. and U.K. over the next two decades.

If, as they predict, 164 million Americans are obese by 2030, Wang says the health care burden will include:

An additional 8 million cases diabetes
6.8 million additional cases of heart disease and stroke
Over 0.5 million cases of cancer

Stopping the Trend


Those predictions don't have to come true. Even very modest weight reductions at the population level could have a dramatic -- and positive -- effect, Wang says.

For instance, the researchers calculate that just a 1% reduction in body mass index (BMI) at the population level would prevent as many as 2.4 million cases of diabetes and 1.7 million cases of heart disease and stroke .

Another report, from experts at the Harvard School of Public Health, shows that even though obesity has been rising globally for decades, efforts to address the problem have been lacking.

Researcher Steven L. Gortmaker, PhD, says a coordinated effort that includes the private sector is needed, but national governments must lead the effort, just as they have with tobacco control.

Cigarette taxes led to dramatic declines in smoking . Gortmaker and colleagues contend that taxing unhealthy foods -- especially sugar-sweetened beverages -- could have a big impact.

In an interview with WebMD, Gortmaker conceded that most Americans might not favor such a tax.

"No single government has really taken the lead on this issue and certainly in the United States an excise tax on sugar-sweetened beverages might not be particularly popular," he says "But it could have a big impact on obesity rates and on the overall health of the population."

RTricia

what movie is that?? Wall-E? Seen it?

Contrarian

what movie is that?? Wall-E? Seen it?

Please stop reading my mind. Thank you.

thedreamhazer

Thanks for sharing. I was reading about this study (or a similar one) the other day and it just made me feel a little scared/sad for the future. The projections for how unhealthy this increase in weight is going to make people is just awful

lorika1977

Hmm ... tax on sugar-sweetened beverages .... well, then the free market will start promoting and use the artificial sweeteners even more so. Watch out cancer!
How about reduce taxes and/or subsidize fresh fruits and vegetables so they are more affordable .... Can't we all see why 1 in 3 Americans are obese?
Anyway, I will start rambling ... thanks for the post - very inlighting.

MikeSEA

Do reports such as these actually define obesity for the purposes of their data collection and conclusions? I'm not denying there are many, many overweight and unhealthy adults in the country, but I'm hoping we're not counting the adults who are actually healthy and just happen to be a little muscular. The BMI is stupid. Maybe they do refer to adults with body fat percentages and I just don't read it.

kyylieeeeee

If the US starts taxing sweetened beverages, which are ususally sweetened with high fructose corn cyrup, will those taxes just go right back into corn-farming subsidies? We, as a country, already spend far too much on corn/cow subsidies and no where near enough on fruit and vegetable subsidies! Any extra taxes levied on sweetened beverages should have to be legally funneled into fruit or vegetable subsidy programs. It's obvious that Americans don't eat enough of either, so this might be an initiative to help!

corgifan

Sad.

I agree with many of the comments above- some of those taxes may work, but until there is a comprehensive system that makes eating a carrot financially more attractive than eating a donut, change won't happen.

I do know; however, that I won't be one of those Americans by then. I'm on a roll and only 12 pounds away from exiting the "obese" category.

HMonsterX

And this isn't the most obese country!

Recently Australia overtook America, and they say that by 2020, 80% of Australians will be obese if trends continue!

ninerbuff

We have to be responsible for ourselves when it comes to eating. No one forces us to eat. We choose to. Old saying "the strong survive" may be coming closer to reality again.

StaceyL76

Do reports such as these actually define obesity for the purposes of their data collection and conclusions? I'm not denying there are many, many overweight and unhealthy adults in the country, but I'm hoping we're not counting the adults who are actually healthy and just happen to be a little muscular. The BMI is stupid. Maybe they do refer to adults with body fat percentages and I just don't read it.

I agree that defining obese and sharing those standards would be nice. However, have you looked around many public places lately.. I can't help but notice just how many people are obese. It is sad. Have you looked at the youth? I can't believe how many children are obese.

I agree with many of the comments made thus far. Something needs to change - knowledge and quite possible prioritizing what we spend our money on. I guess what I am trying to say is self-empowerment and or relying on oneself to make changes instead of someone else making the changes outside of you. It is expensive to eat healthfully - I agree. We may need to get rid of unnecessary expenses in order to afford to eat healthier.. I am not suggesting all or nothing.. I do think small changes make a big difference.

Darkness2120

We have to be responsible for ourselves when it comes to eating. No one forces us to eat. We choose to. Old saying "the strong survive" may be coming closer to reality again.

Agreed. They raised the tax on cigarettes here in AZ several years ago and several times since. Guess what...people are still smoking regardless. Raising taxes or banning things will not solve the problem as our oh so "intelligent" government seems to think it will. Education is the most important tool, and after that its in the person's hands on what they want to do. If they choose to make themselves obese by not controlling themselves (genetic defects aside), I see no reason my tax money should help them. Yep, Charles Darwin described it best "The species with the higher fitness will survive, while the species with the lower fitness is removed from the gene pool." And before any of you make comments about fitness (as i know someone will), look up what "fitness" is defined as in terms of Genetics and Evolution.

corgifan

And this isn't the most obese country!

Recently Australia overtook America, and they say that by 2020, 80% of Australians will be obese if trends continue!

The only thing on Australia's side is that there are fewer of them, so the percentages are thrown off by much smaller increases in the number of obese persons. Granted percentages are a way to take population size into account, but us Americans still have the unfortunate distinction of just so *many* obese people.

corgifan

We have to be responsible for ourselves when it comes to eating. No one forces us to eat. We choose to. Old saying "the strong survive" may be coming closer to reality again.

Agreed. They raised the tax on cigarettes here in AZ several years ago and several times since. Guess what...people are still smoking regardless. Raising taxes or banning things will not solve the problem as our oh so "intelligent" government seems to think it will. Education is the most important tool, and after that its in the person's hands on what they want to do. If they choose to make themselves obese by not controlling themselves (genetic defects aside), I see no reason my tax money should help them. Yep, Charles Darwin described it best "The species with the higher fitness will survive, while the species with the lower fitness is removed from the gene pool." And before any of you make comments about fitness (as i know someone will), look up what "fitness" is defined as in terms of Genetics and Evolution.

The problem with that argument is that health care costs and overall worker productivity take a huge hit when obesity is factored in. It's definitely a complicated problem that needs innovative solutions, ones that I think will probably need to come from everyone - government, business, and most importantly, individuals themselves.

Not trying to argue, just trying to point out that you're going to pay for people's bad decisions whether it be through paying for health care, government education initiatives, etc. (As for the smoking comment- give AZ more time. Smoking rates plummeted in states that imposed heftier bans in the 90s)