Need help setting calorie goals

mmocarr

Good Morning!

I have been on MFP for about 3 months now, initially I did really well and lost weight consistently. However I have not lost since about mid November and gained over the holidays (about 3 lbs) plus another half a pound this week. I had my settings organized to lose .5 pound a week because I am close to my goal weight and am now on thyroid meds and my doctor said
I should expect my weight loss to slow.

For the last 4 weeks ( except Christmas week) my weekly deficits have been 3050, 3091, 2579, 2539; Some weeks slightly more than necessary for project .5 loss other weeks I am significantly under for that goal. Instead of losing though, I have gained and I know it is time for a change.

Obviously from reading on the forums it becomes clear that many successful people advocate eating more calories. I am wondering if that is what people would recommend even though I am close to my goal weight. MFP suggests eating 1420 for .5 weight loss and 1230 for 1 lbs loss weekly which is below my estimated bmr of 1280. Should I start to try and get somewhere in the middle? Perhaps instead of increasing cals I should exercise more? I do workout 3-5 days a week but some weeks I am super consistent and other weeks I am not.

other info
height 5'3"
cw 123
gw 115

I do use a food scale consistently, I dont have a hrm but am hoping to get one soon, and during workouts MFP reports that I burn usually 400-600 cals for 1 hr to 1 hr and 15 mins of exercise including running, elliptical, and weight lifting.

THIS IS SO LONG. sorry for the potentially confusing posting but I would love to hear people's thoughts.

Thanks in advance