Weight Loss Projections Fluctuations

DataBased

I have a question I'm not sure I can explain clearly - let me try.

When I get close to my recommended net calorie intake for a day, MFP tells me that if every day is like this day, I will weigh XXX pounds in 5 weeks.

When I am under my recommended net calorie intake by several hundred calories, MFP tells me that if every day is like this day, I will weigh far fewer pounds in 5 weeks than when I ate closer to my recommended net calorie intake.

This confuses me! We're all learning here, and nobody has more to learn than me. But I've really come to believe all I've read about maintaining the appropriate net calorie deficit. So why, when I get to as close as I can to a perfect net calorie deficit as possible, does the site tell me I'll lose LESS than when I'm creating too large a deficit?

FWIW, I'm trying to track the projections in my Lifestyle Journal that I'm keeping. By the middle of April I should have several days' worth of projections to report about.

SteveHunt113

They are using simple math. They have projected your BMR, and then determine the difference between your actual and your BMR. Take this number and multiply by 35 (7 days times 5 weeks) and divide by 3500. So, the larger the deficit, the larger the difference, hence the larger the weight loss.

The numbers look great, but in reality it doesn't necessarily work that way.

SteveHunt113

here's an example:

Lets say your BMR is 2000 calories per day. Every calorie over 2000 would theoretically be added as fat, and every calorie below 2000 would theoretically reduce fat (or muscle).

On day 1, you eat 1500 calories. The difference between 2000 and 1500 is 500 deficit.
Multiply 500 * 35 = 17500 calories deficit (if every day were like this)
Now, divide 17500 by 3500 and you get 5 pounds.
So at the end of 5 weeks you will weight 5 pounds less.

On day 2, you eat 1300 calories. The difference between 2000 and 1300 is 700 deficit.
Multiply 700 * 35 = 24500 calories deficit (if every day were like this)
Now, divide 24500 by 3500 and you get 7 pounds.
So at the end of 5 weeks you will weight 7 pounds less.

On day 3, you eat 2200 calories. The difference now is 200 calories surplus.
Multiply 200 * 35 = 7000 calories surplus (if every day were like this)
Noe divide 7000 by 3500 and you get 2 pounds
So at the end of 5 weeks you will weight 2 pounds more.

DataBased

Right - it is that kind of simple math that so many of these so-called health programs use to tell you to take in only 500 calories a day I get the math part - what I don't get is that MFP does things differently. It opened my eyes (and thankfully, my husband's) to a different way of viewing the metabolism and how weight loss happens.

So why does such a site use "simple math" for these projections. It's a stupid question, I know - I can just ignore the projections - but it really does send the wrong message. Or am I wrong?

SteveHunt113

You are absolutely right! I really don't pay attention to that projection.

DataBased

Thank you so much for letting me try to explain my thoughts - and confirming what I suspected. I feel like such a noob at this stuff, but I thought I understood the principles right.

You rock for helping me out - thanks again!

:flowerforyou:

Tonnina

I tracked my projection for 15 days. when I got there, it was about 5-10lbs off... I think that it's hard to really shoot for that projection. It's a motivational tool for some people. I still list it in my food notes, but mostly I'm not following it as strictly.

heybales

Thank you so much for letting me try to explain my thoughts - and confirming what I suspected. I feel like such a noob at this stuff, but I thought I understood the principles right.

You rock for helping me out - thanks again!

:flowerforyou:

You are right it is confusing.

They give you a goal to eat to. They increase the goal for exercise credits.

And then they give you this final daily sendoff that sure makes it sound like if you undercut your goal just like you did today, look where you would be in 5 weeks!

Sure sounds like they are encouraging folks to not only eat at a deficit that may already be too great for them, but to make it even bigger for faster results.

I'm sure for the advertisers, they tell them "hey, we have this many subs with this much combined or avg weight loss" it makes it easier.

DataBased

Sure sounds like they are encouraging folks to not only eat at a deficit that may already be too great for them, but to make it even bigger for faster results.

Yes! There - you've explained exactly what I felt the projection does - it encourages you to think the "old way" and try to cut corners.

Thanks for expressing it that way!