MFP Projected weight loss seems off?

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Hi everyone,
I've been confused by the MFP weight loss goal # vs. what the program tells me I would weigh after I complete my diary each day.

When I set my goals i entered lose 2 lbs per week. I entered sed. lifestyle since I sit at a desk most of the day. I've entered food at less than my calorie goals (didn't eat my exercise calories) and I've eaten my exercise calories.

If I don't eat my exercise calories and somehow the day worked out that I didn't quite get to my 1200 minimum (read not intentional - just the day got away from me and after just getting home after 9 pm don't want to eat a dinner and then go to bed) - MFP states that I would weigh approx 10 lbs less in a month.

If I eat my exercise calories, MFP states I'll lose 4 lbs by the end of a month.

I think I've been reading on this site that you should eat your exercise calories to maximize your weightloss - however, the projections do not seem to support this. I'm all for eating my calories!

I've just started logging in MFP consecutively again lately - but I've pretty much been on this plateau for a year. I sort of went with it, but now I'd really like to get that last 10 lbs off :-) I"m in the tippity top of healthy BMI, so I definitely can lose more - just trying to get a handle on how to understand the numbers.

TIA wise ones!